How popular is Donald Trump?

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Cite

Silver, N. (2026, August 24). How popular is Donald Trump? Silver Bulletin. https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin

Dated when The Aporia collected the article, usually within hours of publication. Check the original for its exact date and byline.

Silver Bulletin · collected 2026-08-24 · by Nate Silver commentary

Quick Summary

As of September 15, 2026, Donald Trump's net approval rating is at -19.5, a slight improvement from his previous low but still indicating significant unpopularity compared to earlier in his presidency when it was as high as -13.0. The article presents detailed polling data and methods used by Silver Bulletin to track public sentiment towards Trump, including an analysis of how well he is handling various issues like the economy and immigration.
Written locally by qwen2.5:14b on 2026-09-16, using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the same event (that is the story summary below).

AI analysis runs on qwen2.5:14b, locally

Story summary

As of September 4, 2026, Donald Trump's net approval rating has improved slightly from its all-time low of -20.6, but still stands at -19.5, indicating that he remains largely unpopular. This is in contrast to his performance during the same point in Joe Biden's presidency, when Biden's net approval was around -11.6. The Silver Bulletin, a news outlet, tracks Trump's approval ratings and notes that there is usually significant variation from survey to survey due to methodological differences.

Written for “Donald Trump's Popularity” on 2026-10-16, grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.

Story

📰 Donald Trump's Popularity
Politics · 1 article(s) covering the same event.

Compared with similar articles

This article reads unscored and hedges 0% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.
How popular is the Iran War? different event · 80%
Silver Bulletin
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 10% hedged 3 of 31
“The articles cover different topics (Trump's approval rating vs. the Iran War's popularity), although they share a similar format and source.”
How this article was measured signals, leaning charts, publisher record, byline, topics and claims

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
21
sentences that state something as happening or true
Uncertain
0%
0 of 21 hedged ("reportedly", "may", "according to")
Leaning
not political
takes no side on a contested political question
Publisher signals
not measured
these signals count newsroom corrections; Commentary has none to count
Outlets on this story
1
Politics
Same framing elsewhere
1
articles that frame the event the way this one does
Analyzed 2026-09-16 · source text last changed 2026-09-15 · how these are computed

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Publisher

Silver Bulletin · 43 article(s) · 0 correction(s) detected
No corrections detected for this publisher. That may mean careful reporting, or simply that nothing has been checked.

Who wrote this

Nate Silver
30 article(s) here · 0 carrying a prediction
🔮 Below, you’ll find our forecast for each 2026 Senate race, along with how our numbers have changed over time and which states are likeliest to decide control of the chamber.
2026-10-15 · assertive framing · FLIPR 2026 Senate forecast
🔮 Although our critics might disagree, we seek to avoid false equivocation at Silver Bulletin.
2026-10-09 · assertive framing · Could Minnesota spoil the blue wave?
🔮 It’s not unreasonable to approach election polls from a position of mild — maybe even more-than-mild — skepticism.
2026-10-03 · assertive framing · What if the polls are wrong again?
🔮 That definitely will not happen before the midterms.
2026-10-01 · assertive framing · SBSQ reboot thread
🔮 We think it’s an important story, providing historical context on midterm elections that helps to explain FLIPR’s increasingly optimistic forecast for Democrats.
2026-10-01 · assertive framing · Why did Ohio stop being a swing state?
🔮 The 2026-27 NBA season begins on Oct. 20, when the New York Knicks will lift the championship banner to celebrate their first NBA title in 53 seasons.
2026-09-28 · assertive framing · NBA Future of the Franchise Rankings 4.0
🔮 Our Silver Bulletin polling average forecasts a much closer race — with Turek ahead by 1.9 points — though that would still be an impressive result in a state that Donald Trump won by 13 points in 2024.
2026-09-22 · assertive framing · Diesel prices could crush Republicans in the heartland
🔮 It’s sometimes nice for forecasters when races are toss-ups; it keeps you from putting your neck out too far.
2026-09-20 · assertive framing · Expert ratings are ignoring signs of a blue wave
🔮 A snail will spend the rest of eternity trying to track you down.
2026-09-15 · assertive framing · We’re not ready for superpersistent AI
🔮 It was pretty simple: basically a table of every poll that had entered our database in the past 24 hours, with brief commentary on the most noteworthy polls and how they’d affected our forecast.
2026-09-13 · assertive framing · September polling has been very good for Democrats
Also by Nate Silver
FLIPR 2026 Senate forecast
2026-10-15 · Silver Bulletin
Could Minnesota spoil the blue wave?
2026-10-09 · Silver Bulletin
What if the polls are wrong again?
2026-10-03 · Silver Bulletin
SBSQ reboot thread
2026-10-01 · Silver Bulletin
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 30 articles by Nate Silver →

Topics

Americans Silver Bulletin Substack

Subjects

Trump PERSON · 11× Americans NORP · 2× Donald Trump’s PERSON · 2× Silver Bulletin ORG · 2× Joe Biden PERSON · 1× Truman ORG · 1×

Narrative

Inevitably, there’s a lot of disagreement from survey to survey, not just because of statistical variation but because pollsters have long had trouble pegging down Trump’s popularity.
framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-08-24
2026-09-16 · Silver Bulletin
How popular is Donald Trump? · assertive framing

Claims (21 extracted, 0 hedged)

🕒 The latest on Trump’s approval rating Updated September 15, 2026 asserted
latest → update → rating
We’ll regularly update the charts below as new polls about Donald Trump’s approval rating come in.1 asserted
polls → update → rating
This page is designed to be viewed on the web rather than in our email client or in the Substack app. asserted
page → design → app
Click here for more information on how the average works. asserted
average → click → information
The Silver Bulletin average weights more reliable polls heavily — you can find our latest pollster ratings here. asserted
you → weight → ratings
Our default average reflects a combination of all polls, whether conducted among adults, registered voters or likely voters. asserted
average → reflect → adults
If a pollster releases multiple versions of the same survey, we use the all-adult version of the poll before the registered voter version.2 asserted
we → release → version.2
This is because all Americans have a say in how popular the president is — whether or not they vote. asserted
they → have → say
The polls: What do the surveys say? asserted
surveys → say → What
Each poll gets an “influence” score based on its pollster rating, its sample size, its recency, and how often a pollster is publishing numbers.3 asserted
pollster → get → rating
Sometimes, surveys with mediocre pollster ratings have more weight in the model just because they were conducted very recently or polled more people. asserted
they → have → people
Inevitably, there’s a lot of disagreement from survey to survey, not just because of statistical variation but because pollsters have long had trouble pegging down Trump’s popularity. asserted
pollsters → ’ → popularity
By clicking on the “adjusted results” tab, you can see how the “house effects” adjustment that corrects for these predictable differences works in our model. asserted
that → click → model
You can also click here to download every Trump approval poll in our database — including some additional details not shown in the chart below. asserted
You → click → chart
The issues: What do Americans think of Trump’s policies? asserted
Americans → think → policies
Pollsters don’t just ask about Trump’s overall job approval, they also ask about how well he’s dealing with different issues. asserted
he → ask → issues
We’re tracking how the public feels about Trump’s handling of four topics: the economy, immigration, trade and tariffs, and the cost of living. asserted
public → track → living
The deep dive We also have a few features we’re reserving for paying subscribers: How do Trump’s approval ratings compare to every past president since Truman? asserted
ratings → have → Truman
How many voters strongly approve or disapprove of Trump? asserted
voters → approve → Trump
What are Trump’s numbers in only polls of adults or only polls of likely and registered voters? asserted
numbers → register → voters
You can find all of that, plus downloadable data on every president’s approval rating every day since 1945, down below. asserted
You → find → 1945
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