Russia had its infamous "three-day special military operation" in Ukraine.
asserted
Russia → have → Ukraine
America now has its "short-term excursion" into Iran.
asserted
America → have → Iran
In February 2026, when he chose to start the war, President Donald Trump promised the public that it would last only "four or five weeks" and promised other leaders that it would be won in three to four days.
asserted
it → choose → days
Now the world is approaching month seven of the on-again, off-again conflict.
asserted
world → approach → conflict
In a déjà vu moment, Trump recited his favorite talking points to Axios on Thursday: A "big decision" is coming soon, and he might "annihilate" Iran, but the Iranian leadership wants a deal very badly.
uncertain
leadership → recite → deal
As a cherry on top, Axios reported that the White House is pursuing an Israeli-Arab alliance to contain Iran, the same trick for solving the Middle East that every recent administration has tried.
asserted
administration → report → that
Trump has also repeatedly promised that the energy shortages caused by the war are just a "little glitch" and that gas would be even cheaper than before once the war was over.
asserted
war → promise → war
But the damage is looking to be growing more serious and persistent now.
asserted
damage → look → ?
The price of diesel fuel in America is hitting record highs, and airlines are canceling flights due to similar jet fuel issues.
asserted
airlines → hit → issues
On Friday, the Saudi state oil company Aramco canceled its deliveries to several European refineries for the month of October.
asserted
company → cancel → October
The investment bank JPMorgan has simply given up trying to forecast the war's economic effects.
asserted
bank → give → effects
Tehran's approach to the war of attrition has leaned far more on free markets than Washington's.
asserted
approach → lean → Washington
The U.S. government has tried to keep oil prices low, even to detach them somewhat from real supply and demand, at the price of future shortages.
asserted
government → try → shortages
Meanwhile, the Iranian government is letting price inflation destroy demand (and immiserate Iranians) in order to stretch out domestic supplies, according to a recent article in Foreign Affairs by the economist Esfandyar Batmanghelidj.
uncertain
inflation → let → economist
About a third of the U.S. Navy is tied up enforcing the U.S. blockade of Iran, not counting the forces fending off Iranian raids on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.
asserted
third → tie → Hormuz
(U.K. Maritime Trade Operations, a British navy office, has reported three separate "incidents" over the past three days.)
asserted
Operations → report → days
The latest round of fighting involved neither Iranian nor U.S. troops directly.
asserted
round → involve → troops
The Houthi government in Sanaa, one of the two rival regimes in Yemen, seized the port of Mokha (the namesake of mocha coffee) last week, putting the Houthis in artillery range of Bab el-Mandeb, the strait at the entrance to the Red Sea.
asserted
government → seize → Sea
When forces from neighboring Saudi Arabia intervened, Houthi forces retaliated by blowing up a Saudi pipeline that was meant to bypass Hormuz and that carries 4 percent of the world's oil.
asserted
that → neighbor → oil
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman asked Trump twice to step in and bomb Yemen, according to Reuters and CBS.
uncertain
Salman → ask → Reuters
While the president declined direct U.S. involvement, the two countries have formed a U.S.-Saudi joint command with around 100 advisers from the U.S. military, CNN reports.
asserted
CNN → decline → military
The Trump administration had previously launched air raids on Yemen, as did the Biden administration before it, and the U.S. was deeply involved in the Saudi-Houthi war from 2015 to 2022.
asserted
U.S. → launch → 2022
The war, which was unpopular from the start, is even more unpopular now, according to a poll released this week by the Institute for Global Affairs.
uncertain
which → accord → Affairs
A majority of Americans think the war was a mistake, cannot name a goal worth continuing it for, believe it has increased the cost of living, and give primary blame to either the U.S. or its co-belligerent Israel for starting it.
asserted
it → think → it
Meanwhile, U.S. involvement in Yemen was so unpopular that Congress passed its first-ever war powers resolution in 2019 to get out.
asserted
Congress → pass → 2019
Still, bipartisan hawks are pressing the Trump administration to do something about the Houthi gains.
asserted
hawks → press → gains
During a hearing last week, Rep. Jared Moskowitz (D–Fla.) asked why "the Trump administration is not supporting [the] fight against one of the largest terrorist militant groups in the Middle East."
asserted
administration → ask → East
Rep. Joe Wilson (R–S.C.) told the Saudi state TV channel Al Arabiya that he would like to see the U.S. military "back up" Saudi Arabia, and he proposed the Free Yemen from Iran Act, a bill to aid the Saudi-backed government in Aden, Yemen.
asserted
he → tell → Aden
But the U.S. military simply might not be able to escalate on two different fronts.
uncertain
military → escalate → fronts
U.S. military sources have told both Axios and The Intercept that the current standoff is simply unsustainable.
asserted
standoff → tell → Axios
The shortage of American air defense ammunition is a well-known problem, and the Pentagon's inspector general reported on Monday that there are significant "bottlenecks for munitions resupply."
asserted
general → know → resupply
U.S. forces fired 60 to 70 Patriot missiles and more than 12 Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missiles to defend bases in Jordan during clashes with Iran last week, The Wall Street Journal reported.
asserted
Journal → fire → Iran
The U.S. had 759–827 high-end Patriot missiles and 234–278 THAAD missiles left, according to July 2026 calculations by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, which government sources confirmed to CNN were accurate.
uncertain
sources → have → CNN
Acting U.S. Secretary of the Navy Hung Cao told The Epoch Times last week that Iran "blew the hell out of Bahrain," the central headquarters of the U.S. Navy in the Middle East; Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Daryl Caudle told an audience of sailors that the Navy has no plans to return "any time soon."
asserted
Navy → act → plans
Ships are now being resupplied from Diego Garcia, a faraway island in the Indian Ocean.
asserted
Ships → resupplie → Ocean
The "extended sea transit" has created problems, according to Monday's inspector general report.
uncertain
transit → create → report
The standoff has lasted this long because both sides have become overconfident that they checkmated the other.
asserted
they → last → other
As Trump's prediction of swift victory came undone, Iranian officials were boasting that their leverage over Hormuz was "greater than a nuclear bomb."
asserted
leverage → come → bomb
Over the next few months, Trump worked to restore some shipping to Hormuz and impose a counter-blockade on Iran, bragging about his "total control" over the waterway.
asserted
Trump → work → waterway
Then the Yemeni escalations showed that Iran could threaten other waterways and upstream oil infrastructure.
uncertain
Iran → show → waterways
…and 1 more, not listed.
The Aporia
