Peter Van Onselen critiques Immigration Minister Tony Burke's claim that Australia isn't a "mass immigration nation," arguing that the data proves otherwise. In July 1998, the Australian Bureau of Statistics projected the population to reach between 23.5 and 26.4 million by 2051 based on annual net overseas migration levels ranging from zero to 90,000. However, Australia's population surpassed 28 million in June this year, reaching that level 25 years earlier than the highest projection due to higher immigration rates. Van Onselen also cites World Bank data showing that between 2000 and 2025, Australia’s population increased by approximately 45%, compared to an OECD average of around 17%. He argues that Burke's denial is misleading and disregards the overwhelming evidence of mass migration's impact on Australia.
Written locally by qwen2.5:14b on 2026-09-18,
using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the
same event (that is the story summary below).
Immigration Minister Tony Burke is living in denial.
asserted
Burke → live → denial
He claims that it's 'absurd' to suggest Australia is a mass immigration country.
uncertain
Australia → claim → ?
It's dripping with cynicism that you can lie and get away with it if you sound confident enough.
asserted
you → drip → it
It's a George Costanza moment from Seinfeld: it's not a lie if you believe it.
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you → believe → it
No wonder voters don't trust this government to tell the simple truth.
asserted
voters → trust → truth
We all know that before even turning to the data that proves it.
asserted
that → know → it
In July 1998, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) published population projections running all the way through to 2051.
asserted
Bureau → publish → 2051
Back then, Australia had 18.5 million people.
asserted
Australia → have → people
Under the ABS's lowest projection, the population would reach 23.5 million in 2051.
asserted
population → reach → 2051
Its highest projection (based on annual net overseas migration of 90,000 which was the norm at the time) put the population at 26.4 million come 2051.
asserted
which → base → million
Home Affairs Minister Tony Burke unveiled a sweeping overhaul of Australia's migration system in his National Press Club address on Thursday
The Australian population passed 28 million in June this year, reaching that level 25 years earlier than projected (stock image)
Where are we now?
asserted
we → unveil → level
The Australian population passed 28 million in June this year.
asserted
population → pass → June
We are already 1.6 million people above the highest population the ABS thought we might reach in 2051.
uncertain
we → think → 2051
We got there 25 years early, because of mass immigration.
asserted
We → get → immigration
Apparently pointing this out is now 'absurd'.
asserted
pointing → point → this
It requires a special kind of contempt to look Australians in the eye and insist that white is black, up is down and the crushing pressure on housing and infrastructure is merely a figment of our collective imaginations.
asserted
pressure → require → imaginations
Between 2000 and 2025, Australia's population increased by approximately 45 per cent.
asserted
population → increase → cent
We are therefore growing at almost three times the OECD average, thanks to mass immigration.
asserted
We → grow → immigration
The US grew by about 21 per cent and Britain by roughly 18 per cent.
asserted
US → grow → cent
Even Canada and New Zealand, two other famously high migration countries, grew more slowly than Australia has.
asserted
Australia → grow → ?
It remains more than three times the 'high' annual migration assumption used by the ABS in 1998.
asserted
It → remain → 1998
Words have meaning.
asserted
Words → have → meaning
When one of the fastest growing developed countries adds hundreds of thousands of people each and every year to its population base, calling it mass migration is hardly some wild conspiracy theory.
asserted
calling → grow → it
Australia already has 1.6 million people above the highest population the ABS thought we might reach in 2051 (stock image of metro passenger queues)
uncertain
we → have → queues
Burke doesn't have to like the phrase, but he can't declare the underlying reality as imaginary.
asserted
he → have → reality
When he does, his ridiculous spin needs to be called out.
asserted
spin → do → ?
His supposed knockout statistic in his National Press Club speech was his false claim that Australia's population in 2030-31 is expected to be 700,000 lower than projected before the pandemic.
uncertain
population → suppose → pandemic
That is an insult masquerading as analysis.
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That → masquerade → analysis
Australia closed its international border for two years during Covid.
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Australia → close → Covid
Of course the population temporarily fell behind a projection made before anyone imagined the border would close.
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border → fall → projection
Burke is effectively arguing the post-pandemic migration surge isn't large because it has not yet completely filled the hole created by an unprecedented border shutdown.
asserted
it → argue → shutdown
When a convenient pre-pandemic projection makes current population growth look smaller, Burke treats it as holy writ.
asserted
Burke → make → writ
When Labor's own migration forecasts are comprehensively smashed to pieces, ministers quickly move on.
asserted
ministers → smash → pieces
Do we even trust the forecast Burke leaned on to dispute the existence of mass immigration?
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Burke → trust → immigration
The October 2022 Budget forecast a net overseas migration total of 235,000 for the year 2022-23.
asserted
Budget → forecast → year
Labor missed its forecast by 283,000 people.
asserted
Labor → miss → people
The actual intake was more than double what it told Australians to expect.
asserted
it → tell → Australians
This graph shows just how much Australia's population has grown compared to other nations
The Albanese government's immigration overhaul reflects a belief that voters will accept contested claims if they are delivered confidently, Peter van Onselen (pictured) writes
That wasn't a rounding error.
uncertain
That → show → claims
It was a failure to control inflows on a scale large enough to transform demand for housing, rentals, roads, schools and health services.
asserted
It → control → housing
Now the same government asks Australians to trust it when it says that migration will fall to 245,000 this financial year and 225,000 thereafter.
asserted
migration → ask → year
…and 36 more, not listed.
The Aporia
