A recent Public Policy Institute of California poll conducted from September 4 to 10 shows Democratic candidate Xavier Becerra leading Republican Steve Hilton in the race for California governor with 60% support among likely voters compared to Hilton’s 38%. This represents a significant shift from earlier polls, such as one by UC Berkeley that had Becerra ahead with 55% to Hilton's 37%, highlighting an evolving political landscape. The poll indicates strong base support for both candidates and suggests that economic issues will play a crucial role in the election.
Written locally by qwen2.5:14b on 2026-09-18,
using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the
same event (that is the story summary below).
Why this leaning score
The model judged this article politically coded and scored it -0.45, but 2 quote(s) could not be found in the article and the other 3 are attributed speech rather than the article's own narration, so the score is not published.
Written under an earlier scoring contract, which gave a paragraph
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Leaning score withheld for article 17326: no verified evidence · logged 2026-09-18
The Democrat leads the Republican 60% to 38% among likely voters if the Nov. 3 gubernatorial election were held today, according to the Public Policy Institute of California poll conducted Sept. 4–10.
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election → lead → poll
The latest numbers mark a notable change from the summer campaign.
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numbers → mark → campaign
Here is the corrected and proofread text:
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text → correct → ?
A previous poll conducted by UC Berkeley (the Berkeley IGS / Los Angeles Times poll) showed Becerra with support from 55% of likely voters surveyed — compared with Hilton’s 37% — a previous 18-point margin.
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poll → conduct → margin
Hilton characterized the PPIC poll as “misleading.”
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Hilton → characterize → poll
“This poll is totally at odds with the latest poll on billionaire tax, which is 11% not 22%,” he told the Post, referring to another poll that was conducted by the group.
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that → tell → group
“Californians are desperate for change and we have momentum,” he added.
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he → have → momentum
“Becerra is a career politician and electing him is four more years of the one-party rule of the last 16.”
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electing → elect → 16
The Post has reached out to Beccera for comment.
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Post → reach → comment
The numbers also represent a substantially wider margin than a separate Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies/Los Angeles Times poll conducted in August, which put Becerra ahead 55% to 37% among likely voters.
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which → represent → voters
“Steve Hilton needed all the pieces to fall into place and for Xavier Becerra to make a major mistake to have a chance at victory this November,” Matt Klink a Republican strategist told the Post.
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Klink → need → Post
“Neither has happened and, unless something radically changes, we’re looking at a blowout by Secretary Becerra, who is largely hiding from the California voters,” he added.
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he → happen → voters
The latest PPIC survey found that the candidates’ bases remain firmly behind them.
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bases → find → them
A whopping 93% of Democrats said they would vote for Becerra, while 92% of Republicans backed Hilton.
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% → say → Hilton
Independent voters, meanwhile, favored Becerra 57% to 38% — a 19-point advantage among voters who don’t identify with either major party.
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who → favor → party
Becerra also held majority support across age, education, gender, homeownership and income groups, according to PPIC.
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Becerra → hold → PPIC
The major exception was the Central Valley, where Hilton led 52% to 46%.
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Hilton → lead → ?
The survey comes with Californians less than two months away from deciding who will replace Gov. Gavin Newsom, who is barred from seeking another term.
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who → come → term
“Becerra is taking a very low-key approach because he has such a big lead that he is going to run out the clock,” Klink said, pointing to Becerra’s lack of public appearances and media interviews.
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Klink → take → appearances
The survey also found support for the controversial billionaire tax: fifty-two percent would vote yes on Proposition 40 which, if passed, would Imposes a one-time 5% tax.
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which → find → tax
Sixty-five percent of likely voters said the candidates’ positions on affordability would be very important in determining their vote.
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positions → say → vote
That issue comes as Californians express considerable economic pessimism.
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Californians → come → pessimism
PPIC found 71% of California adults expect bad financial times for the state over the next 12 months, while 54% said things in California are generally going in the wrong direction.
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things → find → direction
Hilton has made California’s cost of living and business climate central to his campaign, while Becerra is campaigning as the Democratic nominee after serving as California attorney general and U.S. Health and Human Services secretary.
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Becerra → make → general
The former Biden appointee surged into the lead during the primaries when Democratic front-runner Eric Swalwell dropped out amid multiple rape allegations and a DOJ investigation.
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Swalwell → surge → allegations
The governor’s race is not the only contest showing a sizable Democratic advantage.
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race → show → advantage
In California’s House races, 62% of likely voters said they would support the Democratic candidate in their district, compared with 36% for the Republican candidate, according to PPIC.
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they → say → PPIC
The poll surveyed 1,745 California adults, including 1,103 likely voters, and was conducted online in English and Spanish by Ipsos using its KnowledgePanel.
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poll → survey → KnowledgePanel
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