Newsom’s support for 2028 presidential bid tanks, AOC and other contenders rise: poll

Read the original at New York Post ↗
New York Post · collected 2026-09-16 · by Ally Goelz

Quick Summary

Governor Gavin Newsom's support for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination has dropped to third place with 14% in a recent Bowling Green State University/YouGov poll conducted from August 25 to September 1, behind Kamala Harris (17%) and Pete Buttigieg (16%). Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is also gaining ground, tied with Newsom at 14%. The poll surveyed 1200 US registered voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points.
Written locally by qwen2.5:14b on 2026-09-17, using this article's own text rather than the other coverage of the same event (that is the story summary below).

AI analysis runs on qwen2.5:14b, locally

Story summary

A new Bowling Green State University/YouGov poll from August 25 to September 1 shows Governor Gavin Newsom slipping in the race for the 2028 Democratic nomination, dropping to third place with 14% support. He is now behind former Vice President Kamala Harris at 17%, and Pete Buttigieg at 16%. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has also risen to third place alongside Newsom, while Senator Mark Kelly trails with 10% support. AOC mentioned in an August interview that she hasn't ruled out a 2028 run but is focusing on the 2026 midterm elections. Buttigieg's and Kelly's profiles have grown as well through visits to early voting states, while Newsom has stated he won’t run if Harris does.

Written for “2028 Presidential Bid Polls” on 2026-09-18, grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.
Why this leaning score
This article does not take a side on a contested political question, so it has no leaning score. That is an answer rather than a gap: a match report or a rescue can be warmly or critically written without being left or right, and scoring it anyway is how approval of a subject gets recorded as a political position.
No political leaning scored for article 14672 · logged 2026-09-17

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
12
claim-shaped sentences
Uncertain
0%
0 of 12 hedged
Leaning
not political
takes no side on a contested political question
Correction & hedging signals
59.3
corrections and hedging in what we collected; not a measure of accuracy
Outlets on this story
1
Politics
Narrative spread
1
articles carrying this framing
Analyzed 2026-09-17 · how these are computed

Story

📰 2028 Presidential Bid Polls
Politics · 1 article(s) covering the same event.

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Compared with similar articles

This article reads unscored and hedges 0% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.
New York Post
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 11% hedged 3 of 28 📰 publisher trust 59
“The articles discuss different polls with distinct outcomes regarding political support for different candidates in separate races (presidential vs. gubernatorial).”
Los Angeles Times
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 20% hedged 7 of 35 📰 publisher trust 95
“Article A reports on Newsom's statement about not running for president if Harris does, while Article B discusses a poll showing Newsom slipping in support for the 2028 Democratic nomination.”
The Guardian
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 0% hedged 0 of 21 📰 publisher trust 60
“Article A reports on Newsom's statement about not running for president if Kamala Harris does, while Article B discusses a poll showing Newsom's declining support for a presidential bid in 2028.”
NBC News
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 0% hedged 0 of 19 📰 publisher trust 95
“While both articles discuss Gavin Newsom's reluctance to run against Kamala Harris in 2028, they describe different aspects of the situation: Article A reports on the announcement itself, while Article B discusses poll results and positions of other contenders.”
The Independent
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 4% hedged 1 of 25 📰 publisher trust 59
“The articles describe different aspects of Newsom's potential presidential run and his stance regarding Harris running; they do not cover the same specific incident or occurrence.”
South China Morning Post
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 0% hedged 0 of 3 📰 publisher trust 94
“Article A reports on Newsom's statement to CNN about not running for president if Harris does, while Article B discusses a poll showing Newsom slipping in support for the Democratic nomination.”
Daily Mail
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 4% hedged 1 of 26 📰 publisher trust 59
“The articles discuss different aspects of Gavin Newsom's potential presidential run and his decision regarding running if Kamala Harris does, but they describe separate occurrences: one is an interview excerpt where Newsom expresses his stance, while the other reports on a poll reflecting changes in support for Newsom.”
Washington Examiner
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 17% hedged 12 of 69 📰 publisher trust 96
“Article A discusses Newsom's declaration about not running if Harris runs, while Article B reports on poll results showing Newsom slipping in support among other contenders.”
The Straits Times
⚖️ leaning not scored 🔴 9% hedged 1 of 11 📰 publisher trust 59
“Article A reports Newsom's statement about not running if Harris does, while Article B discusses a poll showing Newsom slipping in support for the 2028 presidential race.”

Publisher

New York Post · 1293 article(s) · 5 correction(s) detected
Running correction rate · 5 correction(s)
2026-09-18
Shock poll shows another huge swing in California governor’s race
2026-09-15
Fast food chains are making a major shift in customer service amid complaints of a ‘lonely and disconnected’ store experience
2026-09-15
Are Cocoa Puffs Maria Sten’s Favorite Cereal? The ‘Reacher’ and ‘Neagley’ Star Sets The Record Straight: “I Have to Make Clarifications”
2026-09-06
Long Island inmates in jail on drug charges use photo program to get clean
2026-09-06
‘Landman’ Season 3 Release Date Update: When Does ‘Landman’ Return With New Episodes?

Who wrote this

Ally Goelz
2 article(s) here · 0 carrying a prediction
🔮 “The United States will not allow such behavior to go unchecked,” Rubio added.
Also by Ally Goelz
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.

Topics

AOC Bowling Green State University Democrats Newsom YouGov

Subjects

Newsom PERSON · 5× Harris PERSON · 3× YouGov ORG · 3× AOC ORG · 2× Buttigieg PERSON · 2× Kelly PERSON · 2× Bowling Green State University ORG · 1× Democratic NORP · 1× Democrats NORP · 1× Gavin Newsom PERSON · 1×

Narrative

The Squad rep is tied with Newsom in third place at 14%, followed by Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ) at 10%. AOC said in an August interview that she “hasn’t ruled out the possibility” of running in 2028, and that she’s focused on winning the 2026 midterms. Buttigieg’s support has also grown this year, as Newsom falters.
framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-09-17

Claims (12 extracted, 0 hedged)

Gov. Gavin Newsom is slipping in 2028 presidential polls, as other Democrats pick up steam. asserted
Democrats → slip → steam
A new Bowling Green State University/YouGov poll found Newsom had dipped to third-place pick for the Democratic nominee with 14% support. asserted
Newsom → find → support
That’s behind former VP Kamala Harris (17%) and former Biden Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg (16%). asserted
That → ’ → Harris
Newsom led the pack in a February YouGov poll and has typically been in the top 2 with Harris. asserted
Newsom → lead → Harris
He told CNN this week asserted
He → tell → CNN
he won’t launch his White House bid if Harris, a fellow Californian, puts her hat in the ring for a third try at the presidency, citing “mutually assured destruction. asserted
Harris → launch → destruction
The latest poll, conducted Aug. 25 through Sept. 1, shows Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) gaining momentum. asserted
Cortez → conduct → momentum
The Squad rep is tied with Newsom in third place at 14%, followed by Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ) at 10%. AOC said in an August interview that she “hasn’t ruled out the possibility” of running in 2028, and that she’s focused on winning the 2026 midterms. Buttigieg’s support has also grown this year, as Newsom falters. asserted
Newsom → tie → midterms
Kelly has also been making early presidential moves by visiting early voting states and raising his profile. asserted
Kelly → make → profile
YouGov’s latest September poll was conducted with 1200 US registered voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points. asserted
poll → conduct → points
It did not survey voters about Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA), who is polling favorably in other surveys. asserted
who → survey → surveys
The Post reached out to Harris’s, Newsom’s, AOC’s, Buttigieg’s, and Kelly’s offices and did not receive an immediate response. asserted
Post → reach → response
💬 Give feedback
🕘 History 🎫 Support