Australia’s population growth has slowed to its lowest non-pandemic rate in 15 years with net overseas migration dropping below 300,000 for the first time since the Albanese government came to power.
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government → slow → power
But the new figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics show the government still faces a battle to reach its own budget forecasts amid accusations from the Coalition that the country is on an immigration “highway to hell”.
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country → show → hell
The bureau reported that through the March quarter of this year, the population grew by 130,887.
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population → report → 130,887
It took the total population of Australia to 27.9 million.
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It → take → million
March is traditionally the biggest quarter for population growth as migrants and students move into the country.
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migrants → move → country
Through the year, net overseas migration eased to 292,100, the smallest number since mid-2022.
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migration → ease → mid-2022
The intake through 2025 was also revised down by the bureau to 299,000.
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intake → revise → 299,000
Overall population growth eased to 1.4 per cent or 392,100 over the past year.
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growth → ease → year
Excluding the pandemic, when the international border was shut, it is the lowest growth rate since 2011.
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it → exclude → 2011
It most recently peaked at 2.5 per cent in September 2023 when the population swelled by 662,000.
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population → peak → 662,000
The May budget forecast net overseas migration to be at 294,000 to March.
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migration → forecast → March
It suggests that, without a jump in arrivals through the June quarter, the government will hit its full financial year forecast of 295,000.
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government → suggest → 295,000
Treasurer Jim Chalmers said the government was ahead of schedule on its budget forecasts to reduce net overseas migration.
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government → say → migration
“When we came to office NOM [net overseas migration] was surging and a lot of the key indicators in the housing sector were falling.
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lot → come → sector
We are turning that around, and the net overseas migration numbers show that that is the case,” he said.
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he → turn → that
But Liberal housing spokesman Andrew Bragg said the government was in denial about the pressures of migration on the nation’s property sector.
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government → say → sector
“So they are still on the highway to hell here in terms of their migration numbers being way too high and totally misaligned with housing supply,” he told News24.
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he → tell → News24
“So they have cooked up a terrible storm, which has made housing harder, and frankly, everything harder in Australia.”
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everything → cook → Australia
Australia’s natural population increase – births minus deaths – continues to ease.
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increase → continue → ?
The population figures confirm the slowdown in net overseas migration is being driven by the states that traditionally absorb the largest number of new Australian residents.
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that → confirm → residents
In NSW, net overseas migration dropped 6 per cent year-on-year to 28,865, while in Victoria it eased by almost 9 per cent.
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it → drop → cent
Net overseas migration also dropped in Queensland, South Australia and the Northern Territory.
But it lifted marginally in Western Australia, while it jumped by 22 per cent in Tasmania, which recorded 1086 net migrants in the March quarter this year compared to 888 in 2025.
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which → drop → 2025
The figures also show that interstate movements are changing.
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movements → show → ?
Victoria recorded a net inflow of 505 people from other parts of the federation in the quarter.
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Victoria → record → quarter
It was the largest quarterly inflow since before the pandemic during which there was a large outflow of Victorians to the rest of the country.
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It → be → country
NSW had a net loss of 4970 people to other parts of Australia, the lowest March quarter result since 2017.
Net interstate migration eased in every other state bar Tasmania.
Overall, NSW’s population now stands at 8.7 million, followed by Victoria (almost 7.2 million), Queensland (5.7 million), WA (3.1 million), South Australia (1.9 million), Tasmania (580,700), the ACT (489,700) and the Northern Territory (268,900).
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population → have → Victoria
Oliver Hume chief economist Matt Bell said it appeared changes in the Victorian and Queensland property markets had made the southern state more attractive to people moving around the country.
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state → say → country
He said the lift in people shifting to Victoria had occurred at the same time as the number of people moving to Queensland had fallen to its lowest level in a decade.
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number → say → decade
“The vacant land price for south-east Queensland has now been above that of Greater Melbourne for nearly 18 months, and now sits more than $100,000 higher,” he said.
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he → sit → months
“Queenslanders may not be actively moving to Victoria, but it does seem likely that more Victorians are staying put due to Queensland no longer providing the affordable housing solutions it historically has.
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it → move → solutions
Get across all our coverage
- Burke’s warning: Is Australia becoming a guest worker economy?
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Australia → get → coverage
As it happened: Labor unveils immigration overhaul
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Labor → happen → overhaul
What Australians really think: The migration pathways voters want slashed
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voters → think → What
Samantha Selinger-Morris and Brittany Busch discuss One Nation’s immigration plan
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Morris → discuss → plan
Subscribers can sign up to our weekly Inside Politics newsletter.
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Subscribers → sign → newsletter
The Aporia
