The lightning advance of Houthi militants along the west coast of Yemen over the past week has prompted fears of a spiralling conflict in the region and a new oil supply crisis.
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advance → prompt → region
For families living in the Middle East’s poorest country, the most significant fighting between the Iran-aligned Houthis and the Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces in years is a crisis upon a catastrophe, with escalating civilian casualties and at least 100,000 displaced in recent days.
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fighting → live → days
Houthi fighters have captured strategic islands across a critical Red Sea trade route, the Bab al-Mandab strait, one of the most important shipping routes in the world – almost 15% of global sea trade passes through it.
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% → capture → it
The strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world’s traded oil and gas transited in peacetime, has remained largely blocked since the US and Israel launched airstrikes in February, so the prospect of Iran and its allies exerting pressure on two maritime choke points has global implications.
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Iran → trade → implications
The price of crude oil has already begun to spike.
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price → begin → oil
For today’s newsletter, I spoke to Farea Al-Muslimi, a research fellow at Chatham House, about this new and dangerous dimension to the ongoing war in Yemen, and why fears over oil and global trade must not overshadow the plight of ordinary Yemenis.
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fears → speak → Yemenis
Key allies of Andy Burnham have warned the prime minister not to back down over his promises to put water companies under public control, after details emerged about the prime minister’s plan to give mayors more oversight of the industry.
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details → warn → industry
Climate breakdown probably weakened the glacier that collapsed causing catastrophic floods and killing hundreds of people in Nepal and Tibet last month, the first scientific study of the disaster has found.
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study → weaken → disaster
Women with the same medical condition as men are less likely to be offered treatment such as surgery, a stent or a strong painkiller, research has found.
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research → offer → surgery
The UK government’s EU reset summit will be delayed again unless the bloc agrees to discuss legislation that could lock British business out of parts of EU industry, government sources have said.
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sources → delay → industry
Police searching for a three-year-old boy who went missing from a playground on the Suffolk-Essex border have found a body.
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who → search → body
In depth: The fight for Yemen’s Red Sea coast
The current escalation of violence in Yemen has its roots in a civil war that broke out in 2014 between the Yemeni army and the Houthi movement, which champions Yemen’s Shia Muslim minority.
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which → have → minority
A year later, the Houthis – part of Iran’s “axis of resistance”, a loose coalition of armed groups that includes Hamas and Hezbollah – toppled the Saudi-backed Yemeni government.
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that → include → government
Al-Muslimi grew up in a remote mountain village in Yemen, where his family made honey, one of the country’s most lucrative and popular exports.
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family → grow → exports
His mother used to tease him because the bees didn’t recognise him after he spent long periods studying away from home – he was the only person in his family who had to wear a beekeeping suit.
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who → use → suit
Al-Muslimi now writes about how the years-long internecine conflict has had a devastating impact on the honey trade and the farmers who tend Yemeni bees.
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who → write → bees
At least 150,000 people have been killed since 2014, mainly through aerial bombardment by the Saudi-backed coalition that supports the Yemeni government, which has resumed this week.
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which → kill → government
About 4.5 million people – the population of Birmingham and Greater Manchester combined – have already been displaced by fighting over the past decade, while the UN estimates that more than 18.2 million – twice the population of London – are in dire need of humanitarian assistance.
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million → combine → assistance
The situation now is “worse than 2015”, says Al-Muslimi, with global attention diverted to crises in Syria, Sudan, and Ukraine and now focused on oil prices and regional consequences.
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attention → say → prices
After the Houthis captured the port city of Mocha, birthplace of the global coffee trade, last week, Al-Muslimi heard local media reports of more than 240 pregnant women ready to give birth without accessible healthcare.
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Muslimi → capture → healthcare
“It’s absolutely nuts,” he says.
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he → ’ → ?
“This is a country that was already suffering so many things, including indifference.”
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that → suffer → indifference
How has the conflict escalated in the past week?
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conflict → escalate → week
It has been plain for months to Yemen-watchers that the Houthis were preparing for a significant offensive, says al-Muslimi.
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Muslimi → prepare → offensive
This erupted about a week ago with the militants seizing control of parts of the west coast and gaining a hold over the Bab al-Mandab strait, including the strategic port of Mocha and key islands of Perim, Greater and Lesser Hanish in the 20-mile stretch of water that forms a natural chokepoint on the trade route connecting Asia with Europe.
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that → erupt → Europe
With government supporters in disarray, the degree of division among anti-Houthi forces is complicating the fight back.
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degree → complicate → fight
The Houthis have achieved what Al-Muslimi calls “the most consequential change in territorial control in Yemen for years”.
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Muslimi → achieve → years
Since then, the Houthis have claimed responsibility for missile and drone attacks on Saudi Arabia, including the bombing of a critical east-west oil pipeline.
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Houthis → claim → pipeline
On Wednesday a military spokesperson for the Houthis denied attempting to fly a drone close to the holy city of Mecca, and claimed that Saudi Arabia has carried out as many as 450 airstrikes in Yemen this week in retaliation.
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Arabia → deny → retaliation
The ongoing aggression is driving fears that more Muslim nations could be drawn into the conflict.
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nations → drive → conflict
What does it mean for global oil supply?
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it → mean → supply
If the Houthis were to close the Bab al-Mandab strait, vessels would be forced to reroute all the way around the southern tip of Africa.
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vessels → close → Africa
The consequences for the global economy could be dire, particularly when taken along with the ongoing blockade of Hormuz.
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consequences → take → Hormuz
With Iran and its Houthi allies controlling potentially a third of energy trade globally, “it’s more dangerous than a nuclear bomb,” says Al-Muslimi bluntly, “especially at a time when the world still depends massively on this type of energy”.
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world → control → energy
Attacks on Saudi Arabia’s east-west pipeline – which is now closed for repairs and has been crucial for moving oil from the strait of Hormuz to the Red Sea export hub of Yanbu – will add further pressure to global supplies.
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which → close → supplies
Al-Muslimi advises caution over Houthi claims that they don’t intend to impose transit fees on vessels passing through Bab al-Mandab.
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they → advise → Mandab
The UN security council has seen evidence that, since the militants started attacks on Red Sea shipping in 2023, in response to Israel’s decimation of Gaza, the Houthis have been extracting informal payments from some shipping agencies in return for safe passage.
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Houthis → see → passage
Meanwhile, Saudi anger with Iran for assisting Houthi attacks saw the cancellation of a meeting with Gulf states about the future of the strait of Hormuz on Monday.
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anger → assist → Monday
Reports in the early hours today that Saudi Arabia may be offering more crude cargoes through Oman saw the price of Brent crude drop to $104.59 a barrel after hitting $108 earlier this week.
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price → offer → 108
But for perspective, it was trading at $80 a barrel in early July.
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it → trade → July
…and 39 more, not listed.
The Aporia
