The relentless rise in the world's carbon emissions may finally be slowing, according to a major new report.
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rise → slow → report
Global emissions from coal, oil and gas are projected to fall by 0.4 per cent in 2026, according to the Global Carbon Project.
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emissions → project → Project
Researchers say this would mark one of the clearest signs yet that the rapid expansion of renewable energy and electric vehicles is beginning to curb the world's reliance on fossil fuels.
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expansion → say → fuels
And while the decline is small, researchers say it could signal an important turning point in the fight against climate change.
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it → say → change
Professor Corinne Le Quéré, Royal Society Research Professor at the University of East Anglia's School of Environmental Sciences, said: 'Clean technologies are making a real difference in reducing global emissions.
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technologies → say → emissions
Solar and wind power and electric vehicles are expanding rapidly, led by China.
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power → expand → China
Countries on every continent are decreasing their emissions while growing their economies.
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Countries → decrease → economies
'A further acceleration could turn the tide on global emissions within a few years.'
Global emissions from coal, oil and gas are projected to fall by 0.4 per cent in 2026, according to the Global Carbon Project
Investment in solar panels (pictured), wind farms and electric vehicles is helping to meet rising demand for energy without a matching surge in carbon pollution
The study, published in Nature Climate Change, forecasts 38.2 billion tonnes of CO2 emissions from coal, oil and gas this year – slightly down on 2025 levels.
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study → turn → levels
A sharp 1.9 per cent drop in emissions from oil is expected to be a major driver of the decline.
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drop → expect → decline
Scientists say this is partly linked to disruption in global energy markets caused by the conflict involving Iran.
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this → say → Iran
At the same time, booming investment in solar panels, wind farms and electric vehicles is helping to meet rising demand for energy without a matching surge in carbon pollution.
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investment → help → pollution
According to the report, almost two-thirds of the increase in global energy demand is now being covered by clean technologies.
But the experts, consisting of more than 140 international scientists, warn the world is far from being in the clear.
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world → accord → clear
While fossil fuel emissions are expected to fall slightly, emissions from land-use change such as deforestation are forecast to rise.
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emissions → expect → deforestation
As a result, total CO2 emissions are projected to reach 43.3 billion tonnes in 2026, up from 42.8 billion tonnes last year.
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emissions → project → tonnes
China is expected to cut emissions by 0.9 per cent this year while the United States is projected to reduce emissions by 1.3 per cent
India's emissions are projected to rise by 4.4 per cent, reflecting the country's continued economic growth and increasing energy demand.
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emissions → expect → growth
The researchers also warned that the remaining carbon budget for limiting global warming to 1.5°C (2.7°F) now stands at just 150 billion tonnes.
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budget → warn → tonnes
At current emission rates, that equates to less than four years before the budget is exhausted.
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budget → equate → years
Lead author Professor Pierre Friedlingstein, from the University of Exeter, said: 'A decline in fossil CO2 emissions is encouraging, but a reduction driven partly by geopolitical shocks is not a sustainable climate solution.
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reduction → say → shocks
The long-term answer remains the rapid deployment of clean energy technologies.'
China, which produces almost a third of the world's fossil fuel pollution, is expected to cut emissions by 0.9 per cent this year while continuing its huge rollout of renewable energy.
The United States is projected to reduce emissions by 1.3 per cent, while emissions across the European Union are forecast to fall by 1.5 per cent.
Japan is also expected to record a one per cent decline.
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Japan → remain → decline
On the other hand, India's emissions are projected to rise by 4.4 per cent, reflecting the country's continued economic growth and increasing energy demand.
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emissions → project → growth
Emissions from international aviation and shipping are both projected to decrease by one per cent.
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Emissions → project → cent
However, aviation's decline is partly due to reduced activity in the Middle East.
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decline → reduce → East
An exceptionally strong El Niño could drive CO2 levels in the atmosphere to record highs in 2027, the Met Office recently warned
Despite the cautiously optimistic outlook, the authors concluded that only a much faster rollout of solar power, wind energy, batteries and electric vehicles will ensure global emissions have truly peaked and begin a sustained decline within the next few years.
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emissions → drive → years
Glen Peters, Research Professor at the CICERO Centre for International Climate Research, said: 'A drop in emissions in one year is not a peak unless it is driven by structural change.
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it → say → change
Accelerated deployment of solar, wind, batteries, and electric vehicles are pushing emissions down in dozens of countries, and slowing emissions growth in many more, but the changes are not sufficient to lock in a peak in global emissions.'
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changes → push → emissions
Last week, the Met Office warned that an exceptionally strong El Niño could drive CO2 levels in the atmosphere to record highs.
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Niño → warn → highs
El Niño amplifies human sources of emissions while also making it harder for the planet to absorb those greenhouse gases.
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planet → amplify → gases
Climate forecasts predict that the concentration of CO2, as recorded at the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii, will rise by around 3.51 parts per million (ppm) next year.
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concentration → predict → million
That is the largest year-on-year increase ever forecast by the Met Office and rivals the record increase recorded in 2024 when exceptional wildfires boosted emissions.
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wildfires → forecast → emissions
If this forecast is accurate, it would bring the total atmospheric concentration to a record-breaking 432.2 ppm.
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it → bring → ppm
That could make it significantly harder for the world to keep global warming below the 1.5°C threshold set out in the Paris Agreement, with potentially devastating consequences.
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world → make → consequences
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