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Federal Reserve expected to raise interest rates for the first time since 2023

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Cite

Zahn, M. (2026, September 16). Federal Reserve expected to raise interest rates for the first time since 2023. ABC News (US). https://abcnews.com/Business/federal-reserve-expected-raise-interest-rates-time-2023/story?id=136457761

Dated when The Aporia collected the article, usually within hours of publication. Check the original for its exact date and byline.

ABC News (US) · collected 2026-09-16 · by Max Zahn

Quick Summary

The Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates for the first time since 2023 on Wednesday amid high inflation and economic strain. Oil prices are near a four-month high, with gasoline averaging $4.30 per gallon. The central bank faces pressure from three dissenting policymakers who favored rate hikes at the last meeting in July. Financial markets predict a quarter-point increase based on a 94% probability as of Tuesday.
Written by AI on 2026-09-16, from this article's own text only (the story summary below draws on all the coverage).

AI analysis

Story summary

On September 16, 2023, the Federal Reserve is expected to raise its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range between 3.75% and 4.00%, according to predictions from financial analysts like CME Group's FedWatch tool. This move reflects growing concerns over inflation, which has risen above the central bank’s target of 2%, despite previous attempts at stabilization. The decision comes amid pressure from President Donald Trump for lower rates and economic turbulence due to rising oil prices following conflicts in the Middle East, pushing crude costs past $100 per barrel. Despite political tensions, financial markets overwhelmingly anticipate a rate hike to combat inflation, with some economists predicting additional increases before year-end to achieve a “timelier return” to the 2% target.

Written for “Fed Interest Rate Hike” on 2026-11-01, grounded in this article and the 55 other(s) covering the same event.

Story

📰 Fed Interest Rate Hike
Economy/Business · 56 article(s) covering the same event. Compare every outlet's account →

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How this article was measured signals, leaning charts, publisher record, byline, topics and claims

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
20
sentences that state something as happening or true
Uncertain
15%
3 of 20 hedged ("reportedly", "may", "according to")
Leaning
not political
takes no side on a contested political question
Publisher signals
70/100
ABC News (US)'s corrections and hedging, across everything collected from it. Not a measure of accuracy.
Outlets on this story
56
Economy/Business
Same framing elsewhere
1
articles that frame the event the way this one does
Analyzed 2026-09-16 · how these are computed

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Publisher

ABC News (US) · 1280 article(s) · 3 correction(s) detected
Running correction rate · 3 correction(s)

Who wrote this

Max Zahn
17 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 In response to rising prices, a key long-term Treasury rate has jumped in recent months as investors feared price increases would eat away at their returns.
🔮 Federal Reserve set to issue interest rate decision as midterm elections loom Markets expect the central bank to hold rates steady for now.
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🔮 Social Security Administration says cost-of-living adjustment will rise 3.6% in 2027 The cost-of-living adjustment ensures benefits keep pace with inflation. Social Security benefits will increase 3.6% beginning in January for more than 70 million recipients, the Social Security Administration (SSA) said on Wednesday.
🔮 The Middle East conflict drove up fuel prices and catapulted inflation to a three-year high in May, but inflation eased slightly over the summer after a preliminary peace agreement established an on-again, off-again pause in fighting.
2026-10-14 · assertive framing · Inflation climbs in September as gas prices stay high
🔮 Oil traders, meanwhile, question the staying power of newfound Middle Eastern supply, keeping crude prices higher than the level of oil flow may otherwise suggest, they said.
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🔮 Jobs report to show whether hiring stayed resilient in September The jobs report will provide a gauge of the economy amid an inflation surge.
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🔮 Surge in heating costs expected to worsen price crunch Heating costs are set to rise at twice the pace of inflation, a report showed.
2026-09-19 · assertive framing · Surge in heating costs expected to worsen price crunch
Also by Max Zahn
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 17 articles by Max Zahn →

Topics

AAA Fed Federal Reserve Iran U.S.

Subjects

Iran GPE · 5× Fed ORG · 4× AAA ORG · 2× Federal Reserve ORG · 2× U.S. GPE · 2× FedWatch ORG · 1× Kevin Warsh PERSON · 1× The Federal Reserve ORG · 1× the CME Group's ORG · 1× the United States GPE · 1×

Narrative

Attacks on oil tankers in the Middle East pushed global crude prices above $108 a barrel as of Tuesday, which amounted to a rise of about 50% since the Iran war broke out in late February. The average price of a gallon of gas in the U.S. stands at $4.32 as of Tuesday, putting it more than $1.30 higher than before the war, AAA data showed.
framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-09-16
🔮 Federal Reserve expected to raise interest rates for the first time since 2023 The move arrives less than two months before the midterm elections.

Claims (20 extracted, 3 hedged)

Federal Reserve expected to raise interest rates for the first time since 2023 The move arrives less than two months before the midterm elections. asserted
move → expect → elections
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday will issue a decision on the level of interest rates as the United States weathers a months-long bout of elevated inflation set off by the Iran war. asserted
States → issue → war
Global oil prices are hovering near a four-month high and the average price for a gallon of gasoline tops $4.30, according to AAA. uncertain
price → hover → AAA
The U.S. economy has shown signs of additional strain in recent days, including a bond selloff that is pushing up borrowing costs for credit cards and mortgages. asserted
that → show → cards
The price woes have divided central bankers eager to contain inflation but reluctant to cool off the economy and weaken the labor market. asserted
woes → divide → market
The Fed opted to hold interest rates steady at its most recent meeting in July. asserted
Fed → opt → July
Three of the 12 members on the Fed's policymaking board, however, voted in favor of a rate hike, marking the largest number of dissenters casting ballots in the same direction in a decade. asserted
Three → vote → decade
Financial markets expect the central bank to raise interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point, which would mark its first rate hike since 2023. asserted
which → expect → 2023
The odds of a quarter-point rate hike stood at 94% as of Tuesday afternoon, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, a measure of investor sentiment. uncertain
odds → stand → sentiment
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, who took the helm of the central bank in May, has vowed to cool off persistently elevated price increases. uncertain
who → take → increases
"The Fed's predominant focus right now should be on prices," Warsh said in remarks last month at the Fed's annual summer gathering in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. asserted
Warsh → say → Hole
Prices rose 3.4% in August compared to a year earlier, maintaining the same level from the prior month, federal government data last week showed. asserted
data → rise → level
Inflation stands more than a percentage point higher than the Federal Reserve's target rate of 2%. asserted
Inflation → stand → %
Despite a stubborn bout of inflation, the economy remains fairly robust by some measures. asserted
economy → remain → measures
A blockbuster jobs report earlier this month showed employers added 162,000 workers in August, demonstrating continued resilience for the nation's labor market. asserted
employers → show → market
The economy grew over three months ending in June, defying fear of a downturn triggered by the Iran war. asserted
economy → grow → war
Attacks on oil tankers in the Middle East pushed global crude prices above $108 a barrel as of Tuesday, which amounted to a rise of about 50% since the Iran war broke out in late February. The average price of a gallon of gas in the U.S. stands at $4.32 as of Tuesday, putting it more than $1.30 higher than before the war, AAA data showed. asserted
data → push → war
Record-high diesel prices have raised transport costs for many everyday products, including groceries, clothes and furniture. asserted
prices → raise → groceries
The war in Iran, which began with a large-scale U.S.-Israeli attack in the winter, prompted Iran's near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which facilitates one-fifth of global crude supply. asserted
which → begin → supply
Saudi Arabia over the weekend shut down a key pipeline bypassing the strait, which further constrained oil delivery and put upward pressure on prices. asserted
which → shut → prices
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