Claims extracted
23
sentences that state something as happening or true
Uncertain
17%
4 of 23 hedged
("reportedly", "may", "according to")
Leaning
Leans left
expected in commentary, which argues a position · beta estimate
Publisher signals
not measured
these signals count newsroom corrections;
Commentary has none to count
Outlets on this story
1
Politics
Same framing elsewhere
1
articles that frame the event the way this one does
I wasn’t planning to publish anything today, but I had some time on my train down to Washington, where we’ll be doing a live episode of Still Counting tomorrow morning at Crooked Con.
asserted
we → plan → Con
Since it’s a mostly progressive audience, we figure we’ll spend most of our time talking about how Democrats might respond in the wake of their extraordinary night.
uncertain
Democrats → ’ → night
And then we’ll tackle the equally challenging question of how Republicans might try to clean up after their disaster, probably on our regular Wednesday show.
uncertain
Republicans → tackle → show
Although I have to say that Trump’s decision to replace Susie Wiles with Stephen Miller as his chief of staff isn’t exactly rational behavior given the scope of the Republican defeat.
asserted
decision → have → defeat
While doing the prep for these shows, though, I found I needed a clearer mental picture of the Senate landscape in 2028.
asserted
I → do → 2028
Democrats are probably going to end up with 56 Senate seats this year: prediction markets have Scott Colom and Mary Peltola as 98 percent favorites to eventually be declared the winners in Mississippi (!!!!!) and Alaska, respectively.
asserted
markets → go → Mississippi
That’s a lot of Democrats.
asserted
That → ’ → Democrats
Other than Sherrod Brown, whose victory came in a special election so he’ll be on the ballot again in 2028, the Democrats elected this year won’t face voters again until 2032.
asserted
Democrats → come → 2032
They’ll serve for the entirety of the 48th President’s first term.
asserted
They → serve → term
But having a lot of Democrats comes with a lot of responsibility for the party.
asserted
having → have → party
So I wanted to get some sense of how large the Democratic majority might (or might not) be in 2029 when the next president is sworn in given three scenarios:
Tsunami 2.0.
uncertain
president → want → scenarios
Think roughly a climate like 2012, except Democrats realize the environment more efficiently in the House than they did in that election.1
A modest Republican win.
asserted
they → think → win
On the train, I found myself jotting down a series of provisional race ratings using the categories that groups like Cook Political Report typically use, from “Solid R” to toss-up to “Solid D”.
asserted
groups → find → D
Yes, I’m going to share those ratings.
asserted
I → go → ratings
No, you shouldn’t take them all that seriously.
asserted
you → take → them
Yes, I’m going to put them behind the paywall because it makes it less likely that they’ll be taken out of context.
asserted
they → go → context
I do not want to overbill or overpromise what these reflect:
asserted
these → want → what
I am reserving the right to do a deeper dive on 2028 Senate races early in the new year, and we probably will do that.
asserted
we → reserve → that
But I felt like I needed to give myself at least some rough, thin-sliced answers to the two questions posed by the subheadline.
asserted
I → feel → subheadline
If Democrats finish with 56 seats this year, do Republicans even have a path back toward re-flipping the Senate in 2028?
asserted
Republicans → finish → 2028
And if a Democrat wins the presidency, how large might his or her majorities be?
uncertain
majorities → win → presidency
FLIPR sees another blue year in 2028 if Trump remains this unpopular
But isn’t it a little generous to Democrats to give them two winning scenarios while Republicans get only one relatively modest win?
asserted
Republicans → see → win
Actually, I’m not so sure, because there was one last piece of work I asked of FLIPR 🐬 before he begins his much-deserved trip to the Bahamas.
asserted
he → ’m → Bahamas
The Aporia
