WELLINGTON, New Zealand (AP) — New Zealand’s election results will be announced Saturday after a tense campaign left the main contenders neck and neck with no clear route to victory for either, as voters evaluated three years of conservative rule.
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voters → announce → rule
Analysts don’t expect a simple majority for either the governing coalition, led by the center-right National party, or the opposition bloc led by center-left Labour.
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Analysts → expect → Labour
The uncertainty may reflect voter discontent about both major parties as economic problems linger following international shocks that have buffeted New Zealand’s trade-based economy.
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that → reflect → economy
There’s also growing support for politicians on the ideological flanks, a global trend that has gathered pace in New Zealand later than elsewhere.
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that → ’ → Zealand
An unclear result could throw greater power to minor, more populist parties.
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result → throw → parties
The National leader Christopher Luxon faces a tough fight for a second term as prime minister after facing two confidence votes among his own lawmakers this year.
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leader → face → lawmakers
Meanwhile, Labour’s Chris Hipkins seeks a second chance at power after a resounding defeat three years ago.
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Hipkins → seek → defeat
Voting began Oct. 26 with results due for release after polling places close Saturday evening.
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places → begin → release
New Zealand has a single house of government, and there are no states.
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Zealand → have → government
The central government, elected for three-year terms, holds ultimate sway over the country’s direction.
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government → elect → direction
Luxon was elected on pledges of growth that haven’t materialized
Neither major party leader has managed to connect strongly with voters, analysts said.
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analysts → elect → voters
Luxon’s party won the 2023 election on pledges to reverse New Zealand’s post-pandemic economic malaise.
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party → win → malaise
While he highlights trade deals signed during his tenure, economic recovery has been slow and unemployment reached an 11-year high in the September quarter.
New Zealand’s stubbornly steep costs of living send thousands of people each year to live in the country’s larger, wealthier neighbor Australia.
“You’ve got an incumbent coalition government which is struggling with the same incumbency problems that we’re seeing in our Western democracies around the world,” said Ben Thomas, a former National government press secretary and now the director of a public affairs firm.
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Thomas → highlight → firm
However, Hipkins and his Labour party, who are pledging to ease living costs and fund New Zealand’s struggling public healthcare system, haven’t surged in support either.
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who → pledge → support
Neither Labour nor National has recorded more than 30% of the vote in polls close to Nov. 7.
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Labour → record → Nov.
“I think there is a broader mistrust in the electorate of both of our traditional two major parties,” said Thomas.
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Thomas → think → parties
That sentiment has been a windfall for smaller parties that Luxon or Hipkins would rely upon to form a governing coalition.
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Luxon → rely → coalition
The vote is an appraisal of New Zealand’s most right-wing modern government
New Zealanders don’t elect prime ministers.
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Zealanders → elect → ministers
Instead they cast two votes, one for their preferred party and one to select a local representative.
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they → cast → representative
To govern, a coalition of parties must hold more than half of parliament’s seats.
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coalition → govern → seats
The total number of seats is determined by official calculations on election night based on quirks of the country’s vote.
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number → determine → vote
National in 2023 joined with two right-wing parties, populist New Zealand First and libertarian ACT, to form the country’s most conservative modern government.
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National → join → government
Detractors of Luxon, a business executive who entered parliament in 2020, note his political inexperience compared to the leaders in his power-sharing deal.
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who → enter → deal
In particular, the minor parties sought to repeal legal recognition of Indigenous Māori rights.
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parties → seek → rights
About 100,000 people marched on Parliament to oppose one of the measures secured by ACT in its governing deal with Luxon.
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people → march → Luxon
The power that the smaller parties won from Luxon, said Bernard Hickey, an economic and political analyst, “created this surprise, I think, for many voters that the tail was wagging the dog for the first time.
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tail → win → time
Labour hasn’t capitalized on flagging support for rival
On Hipkins’ side, the left-wing Green party has also experienced strong support.
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party → capitalize → support
Hipkins, a career politician, was thrust into the premiership nine months before the 2023 election when his predecessor Jacinda Ardern quit.
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predecessor → thrust → election
Labour hasn’t surged in popularity since losing that vote.
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Labour → surge → vote
“Whoever is in government after November 7 … will have to reckon with much more assertive minor parties that want much greater concessions and much more influence than they’ve had in the past,” Thomas said.
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Thomas → have → past
A novice politician could decide who governs
Election deadlocks have previously seen the two blocs race to establish a coalition deal by wooing a minor party that holds the balance of power.
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that → decide → power
Recent polls suggest Saturday’s election could yield such a result if The Opportunity Party is elected to Parliament for the first time.
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Party → suggest → time
The group’s candidates are centrist, socially liberal technocrats who favor a land tax, universal basic income and pro-environment measures.
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who → favor → tax
The party’s new leader, 38-year-old Qiulae Wong, who has worked in business but not in politics, has pledged to negotiate first with whichever party wins the most votes if she holds the tiebreaker role.
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she → work → role
Luxon has ruled out governing with Opportunity.
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Luxon → rule → Opportunity
Analysts say, however, that both major party leaders would likely answer the phone if Wong held the only path to power on election night.
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Wong → say → night
A fractured result could signal a change to centrist New Zealand politics
A loss for a single-term government like Luxon’s would be unprecedented in modern times in a country where second terms are all but guaranteed.
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terms → signal → country
Voters in the South Pacific nation of 5 million people had before 2023 favored long alternating stretches of National and Labour-led governments.
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Voters → favor → governments
That was seen as reflecting a largely contented public who believed the country was going in the right direction.
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country → see → direction
The sentiment lingered in New Zealand long after countries such as the United States and Britain began to experience political fracture; but it swung sharply to a negative mood for the first time five years ago in the pandemic era as global tumult increased.
Thomas, the analyst, said that the public is “certainly more polarized than ever.”
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public → linger → era
…and 1 more, not listed.
The Aporia
