Days ahead of New Zealand’s election, polls show the governing centre-right National Party and the opposition centre-left Labour Party neck and neck, with neither on course to win enough seats to govern alone.
asserted
neither → show → seats
The outcome of the November 7 election could be decided by smaller parties under the country’s unique electoral system.
uncertain
outcome → decide → system
PM Christopher Luxon calls national election for November 7
- list 2 of 2New Zealand deputy PM heckled day after saying colonisation good for Maori
asserted
colonisation → call → Maori
Here is what you need to know:
How does the election work?
asserted
election → need → what
New Zealand holds a general election every three years under a mixed-member proportional (MMP) system.
asserted
Zealand → hold → system
Voters cast two ballots: one for a candidate in their local electorate and one for a party.
asserted
Voters → cast → party
Winning candidates in each of the country’s 71 electorates take their seats automatically.
asserted
candidates → win → seats
Maori voters can choose to enrol on either the Maori electoral roll or the general roll.
asserted
voters → choose → roll
The party vote decides how many seats each party gets overall.
asserted
party → decide → seats
About 49 more seats are filled from party lists so that each party’s share of parliament matches its proportional share of the vote.
asserted
share → fill → vote
A party needs either 5 percent of the party vote, or one electorate win, to get a seat.
asserted
party → need → seat
In New Zealand’s 120-seat parliament, a majority usually means 61.
asserted
majority → mean → 61
If a party wins more electorates than its share of the party vote entitles it to, it keeps them and extra seats are added to parliament.
asserted
seats → win → parliament
That happened in 2023, when Te Pati Maori won six of the seven Maori electorates, but had only 3.1 percent of the overall party vote.
asserted
Maori → happen → vote
Because seats in parliament closely track with the party vote, one party rarely wins a majority.
asserted
party → track → majority
Every government since the MMP system was instituted in 1996 has been a coalition headed by Labour or National, except in 2020, when Labour under then-Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern won big and governed alone.
Who are the two main candidates?
Incumbent Prime Minister Christopher Luxon is seeking a second term.
A former Air New Zealand chief executive, he entered parliament in 2020 as the MP for the Auckland seat of Botany and became leader of the National Party a year later.
asserted
he → institute → Party
He led National back to power in 2023, promising better economic management and ending six years of Labour-led government.
asserted
He → lead → government
He now governs in a three-party coalition with New Zealand First and ACT.
asserted
He → govern → First
But his leadership has come under pressure.
asserted
leadership → come → pressure
He survived two attempted no-confidence votes by National MPs in April and August, the second orchestrated by his own defence minister at the time.
asserted
He → survive → time
The challenges came as his popularity declined, with rising economic pressure and political tensions within the governing coalition.
asserted
popularity → come → coalition
Labour leader Chris Hipkins, 48, is bidding to return to the top job.
asserted
Hipkins → bid → job
First elected to parliament in 2008, he became prime minister in January 2023 after his predecessor, Ardern, resigned.
asserted
predecessor → elect → January
He lost power in an election that October but stayed on to lead Labour in opposition.
asserted
He → lose → opposition
Most parties are campaigning on the economy, but their suggested remedies differ widely.
uncertain
remedies → campaign → economy
National is pledging to return the budget to surplus through fiscal discipline while expanding the national pension scheme.
asserted
National → pledge → scheme
Labour is focusing on the cost of living, promising cheaper healthcare and transport.
asserted
Labour → focus → healthcare
It also plans to invest in jobs, housing and infrastructure, and to strengthen public services.
asserted
It → plan → services
Smaller parties on both sides are taking aim at power companies and supermarkets.
asserted
parties → take → companies
The right-wing populist New Zealand First party wants to break up major electricity companies and split one of the largest supermarket operators in two.
asserted
party → want → two
The Greens want a state-owned power company, a publicly owned supermarket chain and tougher rules against excessive grocery prices.
asserted
Greens → want → prices
They are also calling for a wealth tax and higher taxes on big companies and banks, while cutting income tax for most people.
asserted
They → call → people
Opportunity, a centrist party, wants a land value tax.
asserted
Opportunity → want → tax
ACT wants to deport serious offenders regardless of how long they have lived in New Zealand.
asserted
they → want → Zealand
New Zealand First is seeking to restrict voting to citizens.
asserted
First → seek → citizens
Currently, the right to vote also extends to legal residents who have lived in New Zealand for more than 12 months continuously.
asserted
who → vote → months
National would need both its current coalition partners again, while Labour would depend on the Greens and possibly Opportunity.
uncertain
Labour → need → Greens
Recent polls show no clear winner.
asserted
polls → show → winner
A handful of seats either way could decide who governs.
uncertain
who → decide → seats
That makes the 5 percent threshold for party participation in parliament crucial.
asserted
threshold → make → parliament
…and 21 more, not listed.
The Aporia
