Don't Expect a Lame-Duck Supreme Court Vacancy (But There Are Other Nominations to Consider)

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Cite

Adler, J. H. (2026, November 5). Don't Expect a Lame-Duck Supreme Court Vacancy (But There Are Other Nominations to Consider). Reason. https://reason.com/volokh/2026/11/04/dont-expect-a-lame-duck-supreme-court-vacancy-but-there-are-other-nominations-to-consider/

Dated from the outlet's own feed. Check the original for its byline.

Reason · collected 2026-11-05 · by Jonathan H. Adler

Quick Summary

The article discusses speculation that conservative Supreme Court Justices Sam Alito or Clarence Thomas might retire before year's end to allow President Trump to appoint their replacements while Republicans still control the Senate. However, recent reports from the New York Times and Bloomberg indicate Justice Alito has confirmed he does not plan to retire this year, despite Democrats gaining a majority in upcoming Senate elections. The piece also mentions that there are other judicial nominations for lower courts that could be considered during the lame-duck session of Congress.
Written by AI on 2026-11-05, from this article's own text only (the story summary below draws on all the coverage).

AI analysis

Story summary

Justice Samuel A. Alito Jr. has reaffirmed that he does not intend to retire immediately from the Supreme Court, despite Democrats' commanding win in Senate contests on Tuesday, November 8, 2026. This means Republicans will hold control of the Senate for only a short time longer. As a result, President Trump may have missed the window to name a fourth or even a fifth justice to the Supreme Court during his final two years in office. The New York Times and Bloomberg reported this information on November 5, 2026, noting that Justice Alito shared these plans with friends after Democrats' gains in the midterm elections solidified their control of the Senate.

Written for “Supreme Court Nomination Prospects” on 2026-11-05, grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.
Why this leaning score
The model judged this article politically coded and scored it -0.35, but every quote it verified points right, so the score is not published.
Written under an earlier scoring contract, which gave a paragraph rather than checkable quotes. Re-analysing this article replaces it.
Leaning score withheld for article 130596: score contradicts its own evidence · logged 2026-11-05

Story

📰 Supreme Court Nomination Prospects
Politics · 1 article(s) covering the same event.

Compared with similar articles

This article reads unscored and hedges 33% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.
Reason
⚖️ Leans right Hedges 12 of 36 claims Outlet record 67/100
“While both articles discuss speculation about Justices Alito and Thomas potentially retiring, Article A focuses on ongoing conversations and speculations before an election, while Article B reports a more recent development where Justice Alito reaffirms he is not planning to retire.”
Washington Examiner
⚖️ Leans right Hedges 0 of 4 claims Outlet record 69/100
“Article A discusses speculation about potential Supreme Court vacancies, while Article B focuses on the broader context of judicial nominations during President Trump's term and the narrowing window for appointments before a Democratic-controlled Senate takes over.”
How this article was measured signals, leaning charts, publisher record, byline, topics and claims

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
21
sentences that state something as happening or true
Uncertain
33%
7 of 21 hedged ("reportedly", "may", "according to")
Leaning
withheld
no quote in the article backed the model's score
Publisher signals
67/100
Reason's corrections and hedging, across everything collected from it. Not a measure of accuracy.
Outlets on this story
1
Politics
Same framing elsewhere
1
articles that frame the event the way this one does
Analyzed 2026-11-05 · how these are computed

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Publisher

Reason · 1161 article(s) · 4 correction(s) detected
Running correction rate · 4 correction(s)

Who wrote this

Jonathan H. Adler
18 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 There has been rampant speculation that one of the older conservative justices (namely Justice Sam Alito or Justice Clarence Thomas) might choose to retire before the end of the year so that President Trump could name a replacement while there is still a Republican majority in the Senate.
🔮 The winner will receive an award plaque and be recognized at the section's program at the AALS annual meeting in January 2027.
🔮 Contributions to the symposium are: - Elizabeth Corey, Fusion: Power Is Not the Last Word; - Richard Morrison, What Fusion Will We Build; - Paul Mueller, Recovering Fusionism; - Veronique de Rugy, Fusionism and the Moral Prerequisites of Citizenship; - Paul Seaton, The Bifurcated Fusionist Regime. For more on the book, and why Fusionism remains relevant today, you can also check out this interview with Slade by James Patterson on Law & Liberty.
2026-10-11 · assertive framing · Fusionism in the Twenty-First Century
🔮 It seems to suggest that the claims made by the petitioners (and their allies) about the potentially catastrophic effects on the oil and gas industry of an adverse ruling in Suncor may have convinced Justice Alito that he needed to recuse, even though he does not own stock in any of the companies that are part of the case.
🔮 Mostly law professors | Sometimes contrarian | Often libertarian | Always independent This morning, the Supreme Court will hear oral argument in Suncor Energy v. Boulder County, in which fossil fuel energy companies are asking the Supreme Court to conclude that all state-law-based tort suits over damages allegedly caused by climate change are preempted.
2026-10-05 · assertive framing · Unpacking the Suncor Oral Argument
🔮 That may seem a contradiction: The justice often publicly portrayed as unyielding and inflexible is, behind the scenes, the conservative who is uniquely adept at finding common ground on the most divisive issues.
🔮 On Monday the Supreme Court will hear oral argument in Suncor Energy v. Boulder County.
🔮 Greg Stohr of Bloomberg reports on an interview with Justice Alito explaining the justice's last-minute decision to recuse in Suncor Energy v. Boulder County, the major climate change preemption case the Supreme Court will hear on Monday.
🔮 In 2025, after twenty-five years at Case Western Reserve University, I moved to William & Mary.
🔮 One week from today, the Supreme Court will open its term with oral argument in Suncor Energy v. Boulder County.
2026-09-28 · mixed framing · As Suncor Approaches, Justice Alito Recuses
Also by Jonathan H. Adler
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 18 articles by Jonathan H. Adler →

Topics

Bloomberg Republican Republicans Senate the Supreme Court

Subjects

Alito PERSON · 6× Republicans NORP · 4× Senate ORG · 4× Thomas PERSON · 4× Trump PERSON · 4× Bloomberg ORG · 2× Republican NORP · 2× the Supreme Court ORG · 2× Clarence Thomas PERSON · 1× Sam Alito PERSON · 1×

Narrative

Justice Samuel A. Alito Jr. has told people close to him that he does not intend to retire immediately from the Supreme Court, despite Democrats' commanding win in Senate contests on Tuesday, which means Republicans will hold the chamber for only a short time longer.
framing: mixed · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-11-05
🔮 There has been rampant speculation that one of the older conservative justices (namely Justice Sam Alito or Justice Clarence Thomas) might choose to retire before the end of the year so that President Trump could name a replacement while there is still a Republican majority in the Senate.

Claims (21 extracted, 7 hedged)

There has been rampant speculation that one of the older conservative justices (namely Justice Sam Alito or Justice Clarence Thomas) might choose to retire before the end of the year so that President Trump could name a replacement while there is still a Republican majority in the Senate. uncertain
Trump → choose → Senate
I have previously predicted that neither Justice Alito nor Justice Thomas would retire during this presidential term (let alone this year). asserted
Alito → predict → term
I adhere to this view. asserted
I → adhere → view
Today, the New York Times and Bloomberg each report that Justice Alito has reaffirmed that he is not planning to retire this year, and that this week's election results have not altered his intentions. asserted
results → report → intentions
Justice Samuel A. Alito Jr. has told people close to him that he does not intend to retire immediately from the Supreme Court, despite Democrats' commanding win in Senate contests on Tuesday, which means Republicans will hold the chamber for only a short time longer. asserted
Republicans → tell → chamber
As a result, Republicans may have missed the window for President Trump to name a fourth or even a fifth justice to the Supreme Court in the final two years of his presidency. uncertain
Trump → miss → presidency
Justice Alito shared his plans with friends after the election results were clear this week, according to two people close to the justice who spoke on the condition of anonymity. uncertain
who → share → anonymity
The 76-year-old Alito, an anchor of the court's conservative wing, has been the subject of speculation that he might abruptly step down to let President Donald Trump fill the vacancy before Republicans relinquish control of the Senate in January. uncertain
Republicans → step → January
Such a move could extend Trump's imprint on the court by letting him add a younger, conservative jurist to serve for decades. uncertain
him → extend → decades
The chatter has continued even though Alito said in an interview with Bloomberg News in late September that he had decided to remain no matter how the election turned out. asserted
election → continue → September
"I intend to stick around through this term," he said then, referring to the nine-month court session that runs through June. asserted
that → intend → June
"I made that decision many months ago." asserted
I → make → decision
Alito indicated that stance hasn't changed despite the Democratic takeover in Tuesday's election, said the person, who asked not to be identified discussing a private conversation with the justice on Wednesday. asserted
who → indicate → Wednesday
While there is no equivalent report on Justice Thomas, there is little reason to think he is going anywhere. asserted
he → be → Thomas
Justice Thomas is on the verge of becoming the longest serving justice in the nation's history. asserted
Thomas → become → history
Moreover, Justice Thomas has previously said he intends to spend at least 43 years on the Court. asserted
he → say → Court
Were he to stick to that plan, he would have several more years to go. asserted
he → stick → years
As Michael Fragoso notes in the Wall Street Journal, the lame duck may be Republicans' last opportunity to confirm conservative constitutionalist judges for some time. uncertain
duck → note → time
Republican senators can make a difference and send a message by putting the Constitution first and confirming the originalist nominees now pending. asserted
senators → make → nominees
Petty or parochial squabbles with Mr. Trump may get favorable headlines today but they will be forgotten in a week. uncertain
they → get → week
A judicial appointment can last a lifetime. asserted
appointment → last → lifetime
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