Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s hold on power in Israel will be tested Wednesday as President Isaac Herzog begins consultations with leaders of all parties elected to the 26th Knesset before deciding which lawmaker to task with forming the next government.
asserted
Herzog → test → government
The final vote count, published last Friday by Israel's Central Elections Committee, gave Netanyahu's bloc 53 seats in the 120-member Knesset, compared with 48 for the opposition alliance led by Gadi Eisenkot — 61 seats are needed to form a government.
asserted
seats → publish → government
On Monday, Netanyahu posted to X that "the public in Israel does not want a government that depends on Ra'am and the Joint List—parties that support terrorism and reject the existence of the Jewish state."
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that → post → state
"A clear majority in the Jewish public chose the Likud as the largest party and me, as prime minister, to lead the next government.
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majority → choose → government
We aspire to form a broad government with our partners and with any party that wishes to do so and does not support terrorism.
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that → aspire → terrorism
I am open to holding discussions on the matter," he added.
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he → hold → matter
The two predominantly Arab parties he pointed his criticism at are the Joint List and Ra'am who secured a historic combined total of 19 seats, potentially positioning them as kingmakers in the government formation process.
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who → point → process
A Joint List source told Fox News Digital that the alliance is likely to endorse Eisenkot to be the first lawmaker tasked with forming a government.
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alliance → tell → government
If both predominantly Arab parties were to back him, he would receive recommendations from parties representing more than the 61 seats needed.
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he → back → seats
The lawmaker tasked with forming a government will have 28 days to do so, with the president authorized to grant an extension of up to 14 additional days.
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president → task → days
Consultations will be held in ascending order of seat count, beginning with Religious Zionism-Zehut and Shas, which each won six seats, followed by Yisrael Beiteinu, which secured seven.
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which → hold → seven
On Thursday, Herzog will meet with the leaders of United Torah Judaism and Otzma Yehudit, which each won seven seats, followed by The Democrats and Ra'am, which each won eight, the Joint List (11), BeYachad (12), Yashar (21) and Likud (27).
asserted
which → meet → eight
Defense and government affairs commentator Amir Oren told Fox News Digital that while Herzog is formally free to choose whom to task with forming a government, he would be inclined to select the candidate whose nomination is backed by parties representing a majority of Knesset seats.
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nomination → tell → seats
"He must then task Eisenkot with forming the next government.
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He → task → government
That does not mean Eisenkot will succeed.
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Eisenkot → mean → ?
If he fails, he will have to return the mandate to the president," Oren said.
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Oren → fail → president
Eisenkot may, in fact, struggle to assemble a 61-seat governing coalition, given competing interests within the opposition bloc.
uncertain
Eisenkot → struggle → bloc
BeYachad leader Naftali Bennett and Yisrael Beiteinu chief Avigdor Liberman are unlikely to agree to serve in a government reliant on the Joint List, given the latter’s pro-Palestinian positions and opposition to Zionism.
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Bennett → agree → Zionism
It is theoretically possible, however, that the opposition bloc could agree to form a minority government with the Arab parties providing support from outside the coalition.
uncertain
parties → agree → coalition
While Israel has no precedent for forming a minority government immediately following an election, such arrangements have occurred during a Knesset term.
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arrangements → have → term
Most recently, during Netanyahu’s current term, one of the ultra-Orthodox parties withdrew from the coalition over a dispute related to military conscription but continued to support the government from outside.
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one → withdraw → outside
Religious Zionism-Zehut, Otzma Yehudit and Shas each confirmed to Fox News Digital on Tuesday night that they would recommend Netanyahu to Herzog during consultations on forming a government.
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they → confirm → government
Dan Diker, president of the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs, told Fox News Digital that Bennett and Liberman’s recent endorsement of Eisenkot suggests they are moving away from the prospect of a national unity government.
uncertain
they → tell → government
"I think it would behoove Netanyahu, Eisenkot, former Prime Minister Bennett and former Defense Minister Liberman to find a way to work together now, given the imminent clash between the apocalyptic death cult known as the Iranian regime, Israel and, by extension, the rest of the Western world
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it → think → world
," he said.
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he → say → ?
Complicating matters for Netanyahu, the 26th Knesset is scheduled to be sworn in on Nov. 10.
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Knesset → complicate → Nov.
Its newly elected members are expected to begin forming committees and advancing legislation, while the current prime minister and ministers remain in office and continue carrying out their duties under the oversight of the new parliament, ensuring continuity of government.
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minister → elect → government
"They are doing everything they can to push Netanyahu out of office, and we are seeing that now with discussions about replacing the Knesset speaker.
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we → do → speaker
They can then begin trying to advance legislation in a Knesset with 19 seats held by Arab parties that would be very uncomfortable for Netanyahu," Diker said.
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Diker → begin → Netanyahu
Oren highlighted another potential challenge, suggesting that the caretaker government's ability to launch military operations could face political constraints, potentially complicating any resumption of hostilities with Iran, even if U.S. President Donald Trump were to initiate such action.
uncertain
Trump → highlight → action
Former Knesset member Dov Lipman told Fox News Digital that Eisenkot appears likely to be the first lawmaker tasked with forming a government, but suggested that most Israelis favor a national unity government built around Likud, Yashar and BeYachad, with one or more smaller parties also joining.
"
uncertain
parties → tell → Likud
As a first step, Eisenkot may approach Likud and ask it to join a government under his leadership, which Likud will reject.
uncertain
Likud → approach → which
Eisenkot will then have to make a decision, as Liberman is unlikely to agree to serve in a government alongside Arab parties," Lipman said.
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Lipman → have → parties
"Eisenkot will likely fail to form a government, after which the mandate will pass to Netanyahu, who will also likely fail.
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who → fail → Netanyahu
That would trigger a 21-day period during which any Knesset member could attempt to form a government with the backing of at least 61 lawmakers.
uncertain
member → trigger → lawmakers
If the process reaches that stage, Eisenkot might agree to serve under Netanyahu for two years to avoid sending the country to another election, Lipman said.
uncertain
Lipman → reach → election
Prof. Gideon Rahat, a senior fellow at the Israel Democracy Institute, told Fox News Digital that Netanyahu would need to make concessions to persuade opposition leaders that he would honor his commitments, given their experience with the 2020 power-sharing agreement with then-Blue and White party leader Benny Gantz.
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he → tell → Gantz
Under the agreement, Netanyahu was to serve as prime minister for the first 18 months, with Gantz serving as alternate prime minister and defense minister before taking over as premier on Nov. 17, 2021.
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Gantz → serve → Nov.
However, the arrangement unraveled after the government failed to pass a state budget by the December 2020 deadline, triggering the Knesset's automatic dissolution and new elections.
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government → unravel → dissolution
Gantz never assumed the premiership.
asserted
Gantz → assume → premiership
…and 7 more, not listed.
The Aporia
