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1 in 10 Trump voters say they plan on switching to Democrats this midterm, poll finds

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Cite

Lubin, R. (2026, November 3). 1 in 10 Trump voters say they plan on switching to Democrats this midterm, poll finds. The Independent. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-voters-switching-democrat-midterms-b3078618.html

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The Independent · collected 2026-11-03 · by Rhian Lubin

Quick Summary

A new poll indicates that 10% of Donald Trump's voters from the 2024 election intend to switch to voting for Democrats in the upcoming midterms, compared to only 2% of Kamala Harris’s supporters planning to vote Republican. This shift is particularly pronounced among young and Latino voters who have become disillusioned with issues such as the war in Iran, high costs of living, and aggressive deportation policies. Republicans are concerned about potential losses in these key demographic groups.
Written by AI on 2026-11-03, from this article's own text only (the story summary below draws on all the coverage).

AI analysis

Story summary

As of November 3, 2026, a new poll reveals that 1 in 10 voters who supported Donald Trump in the 2024 election plan to switch to voting for Democrats in the upcoming midterm elections. Republicans are concerned about potential losses among key demographic groups, particularly young people and Latinos. The survey indicates that over 50% of Hispanic Trump supporters identified as MAGA Republicans at the end of last year, compared to just 37% in October 2026, reflecting a significant decline due to factors such as the war in Iran, high living costs, and aggressive deportation policies. This shift suggests that President Trump's coalition is weakening, with Trump ally Gina Swoboda expressing disappointment by stating, "The coalition that we built under Trump doesn’t f***ing exist anymore."

Written for “Trump Voters Switching To Democrats” on 2026-11-04, grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.
Why this leaning score
The article's own words the score was based on. Each is quoted verbatim and was checked against the article text before being stored, so you can find it in the original.
Reading Leans left (beta estimate) Confidence high
Leaning: leans left for article 126697 (high confidence, 2 verified quotes) · logged 2026-11-03

Story

📰 Trump Voters Switching To Democrats
Politics · 1 article(s) covering the same event.

Compared with similar articles

This article reads leans left and hedges 17% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.
Fox News
Hedges 2 of 29 claims Outlet record 68/100
“Article A discusses voter sentiment two days before the election, while Article B reports on a poll finding released after the election day about Trump voters switching to Democrats.”
The Hindu
⚖️ Leans left Hedges 0 of 2 claims Outlet record 77/100
“Article A describes the overall context and voter turnout of the midterm elections on November 3, 2026, while Article B reports a specific poll about Trump voters switching to Democrats. Though related, they describe different aspects of the event.”
Daily Mail
⚖️ Leans left Hedges 4 of 20 claims Outlet record 69/100
“The articles refer to different polls with distinct findings and timeframes.”
NBC News
⚖️ Leans strongly left further left than this Hedges 3 of 66 claims Outlet record 78/100
“The articles cover related polls but describe different aspects and findings of public opinion leading up to the midterm elections.”
The Guardian
⚖️ Leans strongly left further left than this Hedges 5 of 42 claims Outlet record 66/100
“The articles discuss different aspects of the upcoming midterm elections and do not describe the exact same specific incident or outcome.”
ABC News (AU)
Hedges 5 of 101 claims Outlet record 67/100
“While both articles discuss changes in voter sentiment towards Trump since his re-election, they describe different aspects of this trend and are not reporting on a single specific occurrence.”
How this article was measured signals, leaning charts, publisher record, byline, topics and claims

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
23
sentences that state something as happening or true
Uncertain
17%
4 of 23 hedged ("reportedly", "may", "according to")
Leaning
Leans left
of the writing, not the subject · beta estimate
Publisher signals
59/100
The Independent's corrections and hedging, across everything collected from it. Not a measure of accuracy.
Outlets on this story
1
Politics
Same framing elsewhere
1
articles that frame the event the way this one does
Analyzed 2026-11-03 · how these are computed

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Publisher

The Independent · 3647 article(s) · 10 correction(s) detected
Running correction rate · 10 correction(s)

Who wrote this

Rhian Lubin
46 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 Republicans are bracing for a tough night ahead as it appears the president could be on track to lose major gains he made with two key groups of voters in 2024 - young people and Latinos, Politico reports.
🔮 She will get punished plenty,” another lawmaker told the outlet.
🔮 Some polls are open for Tuesday’s crucial midterm elections, which will decide majority control of Congress for the final two years of Donald Trump’s presidency.
🔮 “Only fools would vote for him in the Michigan race for the U.S. Senate!
🔮 Her attorney, Peter Ticktin, separately told MSNOW that Trump should be ready to “enter an emergency order that basically would be tantamount to martial law.”
🔮 President Donald Trump is set to deliver his “closing argument” to midterm voters at the iconic Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool in Washington, D.C. - a site dogged by the administration’s botched repair job.
🔮 She called up Rogers and asked if she could attend church with him instead, in a dramatic end to the months-long tension.
🔮 But the accounts themselves will still exist.
🔮 Former White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt has joined MAGA figures in peddling Elon Musk’s conspiracy theories ahead of the midterms, including an alleged plot to change the Supreme Court that would render America a “permanent one-party state.”
🔮 The election forecaster revealed his new figures on The Argument YouTube show.
Also by Rhian Lubin
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 46 articles by Rhian Lubin →

Topics

Hispanic MAGA Politico Republican Republicans

Subjects

Trump PERSON · 11× Politico ORG · 4× Hispanic NORP · 3× MAGA ORG · 3× Republican NORP · 3× Republicans NORP · 3× the Republican Party ORG · 2× Democrats NORP · 1× Donald Trump PERSON · 1× Latinos NORP · 1×

Narrative

The poll indicates that swathes of young and Latino voters have moved away from identifying as MAGA, in part, after becoming disillusioned with the war in Iran, the high cost of living and the Trump administration’s heavy-handed deportation tactics.
framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-11-03
🔮 Republicans are bracing for a tough night ahead as it appears the president could be on track to lose major gains he made with two key groups of voters in 2024 - young people and Latinos, Politico reports.

Claims (23 extracted, 4 hedged)

A damning new poll has found that 1 in 10 people who voted for Donald Trump in 2024 plan to switch to Democrats this Election Day. asserted
who → find → Democrats
Republicans are bracing for a tough night ahead as it appears the president could be on track to lose major gains he made with two key groups of voters in 2024 - young people and Latinos, Politico reports. uncertain
Politico → brace → 2024
Approximately 9 percent of Trump 2024 voters intend to choose a Democrat at the polls on November 3, compared to just over 2 percent of people who voted for former vice president Kamala Harris who now plan to vote Republican, according to Politico polling. uncertain
who → intend → polling
The poll indicates that swathes of young and Latino voters have moved away from identifying as MAGA, in part, after becoming disillusioned with the war in Iran, the high cost of living and the Trump administration’s heavy-handed deportation tactics. asserted
swathes → indicate → living
“The coalition that we built under Trump doesn’t f***ing exist anymore,” lamented Trump ally Gina Swoboda. asserted
Swoboda → build → Trump
More than half (56 percent) of Hispanic Trump voters identified as MAGA Republicans at the end of last year, compared to the 37 percent who still do as of October, according to the outlet. uncertain
who → identify → outlet
And at the end of last year, half (50 percent) of Trump voters aged 20 to 29 said they were certain to vote on November 3. asserted
they → age → November
That figure has dropped to 38 percent as October, the poll found. asserted
poll → drop → October
Trump and his administration have largely dismissed negative polls as “fake news” but the president acknowledged Monday that the historical trends were against him. asserted
trends → dismiss → him
“For some reason the sitting president doesn't win the midterms, but we gave this a very strong shot,” he said. asserted
he → sit → shot
The president also addressed young people directly in a video posted by the Republican Party on Election Day, calling on them to go out and vote as their enthusiasm appears to have waned. asserted
enthusiasm → address → them
“So to our great young generation, I just wanna tell you, it’s so important to get out to vote,” Trump said in the message recorded from outside the Oval Office. asserted
Trump → tell → Office
“This is the golden age of America, we have never done better. asserted
we → do → America
You gotta go out. asserted
You → got → ?
We have to keep it going and keep it going strong.” asserted
We → have → it
The White House maintained that Trump “is the unequivocal leader, best messenger, and unmatched motivator for the Republican Party.” asserted
Trump → maintain → Party
Natalie Baldassarre, Republican National Committee spokesperson, said that the “Trump administration has delivered on its promises to the American people.” asserted
administration → say → people
Some of the demographic has turned on Trump after deeming his mass immigration operation was too aggressive, according to Politico’s poll. uncertain
operation → turn → poll
Between last November and this October, the number of Hispanic Trump voters who identified as MAGA plummeted 19 points, the polling found. asserted
polling → identify → MAGA
Still, two-thirds of those voters said they intended to vote Republican. asserted
they → say → Republican
One Texas Republican strategist weighed in on the figures. asserted
strategist → weigh → figures
“Would I feel better if gas were $2.50 instead of $3.30? asserted
gas → feel → ?
But good luck convincing a guy things are getting better while ICE is picking up his uncle,” they told Politico. asserted
they → convince → Politico
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