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We Can’t Predict What Will Happen on Election Day. But We’ll Be Here to Cover It.

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Cite

Engelberg, S. (2026, November 3). We Can’t Predict What Will Happen on Election Day. But We’ll Be Here to Cover It. ProPublica. https://www.propublica.org/article/propublica-approach-2026-midterm-elections

Dated from the outlet's own feed. Check the original for its byline.

ProPublica · collected 2026-11-03 · by Stephen Engelberg

Quick Summary

ProPublica reflects on the unprecedented challenges facing journalists covering this year's midterm elections, characterized by significant spending from wealthy donors and redistricting efforts by both parties. The article highlights concerns raised by President Trump and his allies about election integrity before voting occurs, including a lawsuit filed by the Justice Department targeting Alaska’s senatorial race if the incumbent loses. ProPublica details its extensive preparations to cover various post-election scenarios, emphasizing the unpredictable nature of outcomes due to potential disputes over results and the precedent set by events in 2020 and January 6, 2021.
Written by AI on 2026-11-03, from this article's own text only (the story summary below draws on all the coverage).

AI analysis

Story summary

As of November 3, 2026, ProPublica notes an unprecedented election cycle marked by significant political spending and redistricting efforts. The Justice Department, at President Donald Trump's direction, filed a lawsuit contesting the results in Alaska if Republican incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan did not win. This lawsuit raised concerns about whether losing parties would accept voters' will, reflecting broader issues of trust in electoral outcomes. Journalists are preparing to cover potential post-election disputes but acknowledge challenges in predicting future events accurately.

Written for “Us election day coverage” on 2026-11-03, grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.
Why this leaning score
The article's own words the score was based on. Each is quoted verbatim and was checked against the article text before being stored, so you can find it in the original.
Reading Leans left (beta estimate) Confidence high
Leaning: leans left for article 125388 (high confidence, 3 verified quotes) · logged 2026-11-03

Story

📰 Us election day coverage
Politics · 1 article(s) covering the same event.

Compared with similar articles

This article reads leans left and hedges 8% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.
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Hedges 2 of 60 claims Outlet record 64/100
“The articles discuss different aspects of the broader context leading up to and surrounding Election Day, rather than a single specific incident.”
CBS News
Hedges 1 of 2 claims Outlet record 66/100
“The articles discuss different aspects of the midterm elections; one previews what might happen, while the other promises coverage on Election Day.”
Los Angeles Times
⚖️ Leans left Hedges 6 of 42 claims Outlet record 95/100
“The articles discuss the overall context and buildup of the midterm elections but do not describe the same specific incident or occurrence.”
Daily Mail
⚖️ Leans left Hedges 1 of 11 claims Outlet record 69/100
“The articles discuss different aspects of the same general topic (the 2026 midterm elections) but describe distinct events happening on separate days.”
The Guardian
⚖️ Leans strongly left further left than this Hedges 0 of 9 claims Outlet record 66/100
“While both articles discuss the US midterm elections of 2026, Article A focuses on the day itself and voter turnout, while Article B reflects on the entire election cycle leading up to Election Day.”
The Globe and Mail
⚖️ Leans left Hedges 5 of 32 claims Outlet record 52/100
“Both articles discuss preparations for and expectations regarding the U.S. midterm elections, but they are not reporting on a single specific incident occurring at the same time.”
CBS News
⚖️ Leans left Hedges 5 of 35 claims Outlet record 66/100
BBC News
⚖️ Leans left Hedges 15 of 41 claims Outlet record 68/100
“Both articles discuss the upcoming US midterms on November 3, 2026, but they are not describing a single specific incident or occurrence. Article A focuses on the unpredictability and planning for coverage of the election day itself, while Article B outlines potential scenarios and outcomes after the votes have been cast.”
Toronto Star
Hedges 9 of 51 claims Outlet record 64/100
“The articles discuss different aspects of the broader context around the midterm elections and do not focus on a single specific incident or occurrence.”
Fox News
Hedges 4 of 65 claims Outlet record 69/100
“While both articles discuss Election Day and its implications, they do not describe a single specific incident but rather general background and context for the election.”
How this article was measured signals, leaning charts, publisher record, byline, topics and claims

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
63
sentences that state something as happening or true
Uncertain
8%
5 of 63 hedged ("reportedly", "may", "according to")
Leaning
Leans left
of the writing, not the subject · beta estimate
Publisher signals
58/100
ProPublica's corrections and hedging, across everything collected from it. Not a measure of accuracy.
Outlets on this story
1
Politics
Same framing elsewhere
1
articles that frame the event the way this one does
Analyzed 2026-11-03 · how these are computed

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Publisher

ProPublica · 126 article(s) · 1 correction(s) detected
Running correction rate · 1 correction(s)

Who wrote this

Stephen Engelberg
1 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 President Donald Trump and his allies relentlessly questioned whether the results could be trusted even before a single ballot was counted.
The only article under this byline in the corpus.

Topics

Alaska CISA ProPublica Republican the Justice Department

Subjects

Trump PERSON · 5× CISA ORG · 3× Alaska GPE · 2× Republican NORP · 2× the Justice Department ORG · 2× Dan Sullivan PERSON · 1× Donald Trump PERSON · 1× ICE ORG · 1× Joe Biden’s PERSON · 1× ProPublica ORG · 1×

Narrative

The case included a bipartisan list of political figures such as Susan Collins, the Republican senator from Maine running in a closely contested race this year, and James Clyburn, a leading Democratic representative from South Carolina who’s also on the ballot this year
framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-11-03
🔮 President Donald Trump and his allies relentlessly questioned whether the results could be trusted even before a single ballot was counted.

Claims (63 extracted, 5 hedged)

Wealthy donors spent staggering sums. asserted
donors → spend → sums
Both parties moved to redraw congressional district lines. asserted
parties → move → lines
President Donald Trump and his allies relentlessly questioned whether the results could be trusted even before a single ballot was counted. uncertain
ballot → question → ?
At Trump’s direction, the Justice Department filed a lawsuit that said the federal government would contest any outcome in which Sen. Dan Sullivan, the Republican incumbent in Alaska, was not victorious. asserted
Sullivan → file → Alaska
Newsrooms, including ours, have tried to plan how we will cover an election in which the losing side refuses to accept the will of the voters. asserted
side → include → voters
As we prepare to write about Nov. 3 and beyond, we find ourselves in the uncomfortable position of trying to game out what might happen in the future — not our strong suit. uncertain
what → prepare → future
The record shows that journalists are pretty good at telling readers what happened, particularly if we have some time and some data to sift through, and much less good at forecasting the future. asserted
we → show → future
Help Us Report on Key Election Issues asserted
Us → help → Issues
ProPublica’s reporters are on the lookout for what’s going right and what isn’t. asserted
what → go → lookout
We’re monitoring voter suppression and interference, election observers and poll watchers, extremism tied to the election, and ICE activity at the polls. asserted
We → monitor → polls
Have you seen something? asserted
you → see → something
And yet we have to plan. asserted
we → have → ?
Over the past few weeks we have prepared our reporters and editors to cover every scenario we can imagine. asserted
we → prepare → scenario
None of us have forgotten the chaos of 2020 when Trump was urged by advisers to send the military to seize voting machines in states he had lost. asserted
he → forget → states
The Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol as lawmakers gathered to certify Joe Biden’s victory underscored the sense that literally anything was possible in the aftermath of elections. asserted
anything → gather → elections
We will have reporters on the ground in 11 key states covering voting, with even more in Washington, D.C., and others on standby. asserted
We → have → standby
Our reporters have detailed what experts will be watching. asserted
experts → detail → what
But elections are no longer confined to Election Day (early voting and voting by mail constitute a huge share of the electorate). asserted
voting → confine → electorate
And our plans for covering voting stretch back many months. asserted
plans → cover → voting
Over the past year, we’ve tried to use the techniques of accountability journalism to add new facts to this pivotal moment in American history. asserted
we → try → history
We have focused considerable attention on the mechanics of elections, a once-arcane issue that has become a central aspect of the MAGA movement’s argument that Trump’s 2020 loss was “rigged” by his opponents. asserted
loss → focus → opponents
We examined how the Trump administration depleted the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, the arm of the federal government charged with safeguarding election systems. asserted
administration → examine → systems
We discovered that Department of Homeland Security officials had asked CISA to obtain a voting machine and hack it without informing the manufacturer of any vulnerabilities found. asserted
officials → discover → vulnerabilities
The plan wasn’t acted on, but its existence made CISA employees fear they were being asked to take part in political interference. asserted
they → act → interference
CISA and DHS didn’t respond to our questions, but a White House spokesperson said Trump “has done more than any other President to ensure we have free and fair elections.” asserted
we → respond → elections
Another story looked at how delays resulting from the U.S. Postal Service’s cost-cutting measures endangered the validity of mail-in ballots in rural counties, typically Republican strongholds, during this year’s primaries. asserted
delays → look → primaries
The Postal Service said such delays are less likely in the general election. asserted
delays → say → election
One of our most detailed election stories traced the career of Cleta Mitchell, a lawyer who spearheaded the legal attacks on the 2020 results. asserted
who → trace → results
Mitchell leads a coalition of what she calls “election believers” — people who scour the voting results for errors that they believe point to larger conspiracies. asserted
they → lead → conspiracies
Changes she’d hoped Trump could push through before the midterms, such as compelling states to turn over confidential voter information to the Justice Department, have been blocked by the courts. uncertain
Trump → hop → courts
But she has nonetheless become the voice of a well-funded national movement, one which has the president’s ear. asserted
which → become → ear
When Trump is weighing what to do in the aftermath of this week’s vote, our reporting strongly suggests that Mitchell will be among the people he listens to. uncertain
he → weigh → people
We asked to speak with Mitchell multiple times. asserted
We → ask → Mitchell
She declined but told us in an email: “What we focus on is making sure the election process is accurate, transparent, and honest. asserted
process → decline → What
The ONLY steps I’ve urged the Administration to take are those that will give the voters — ALL voters — confidence that the outcomes are correct.” asserted
outcomes → urge → confidence
A White House spokesperson said she has no official role in election policy but is an effective private advocate. asserted
she → say → policy
We have also spent time doing the traditional work of investigative reporting, looking closely at candidates’ records in public office. asserted
We → spend → office
A newsroom like ours can’t cover every race, so we focus our resources on areas where we have particular expertise. asserted
we → cover → expertise
Our team in Texas has covered state Attorney General Ken Paxton for years, and we kept our focus once he announced he would run for the U.S. Senate. asserted
he → cover → Senate
One story looked at his travels, revealing that only 1 in 6 of his nearly 1,000 out-of-state trips were linked to his official duties. asserted
6 → look → duties
…and 23 more, not listed.
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