WASHINGTON (AP) — Florida Republicans will try to extend their dominance in statewide elections Tuesday as voters decide races for Senate, governor and other state and legislative offices.
asserted
voters → try → Senate
The election will mark the first under a new congressional map adopted by Republicans to boost the party’s chances of keeping control of the closely divided House.
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election → mark → House
Once the nation’s most evenly divided swing state, Florida has shifted steadily to the right in the last quarter century.
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Florida → divide → century
At the time of the 2000 presidential election, Democrats had held a voter registration advantage over Republicans for decades.
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Democrats → hold → decades
That advantage would erode until 2021 when registered Republicans overtook registered Democrats.
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Republicans → erode → Democrats
In the race for governor, Democrats have nominated a former Republican to lead them out of the electoral doldrums.
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Democrats → nominate → doldrums
Former Rep. David Jolly defeated five other candidates in the Aug. 18 primary with 61% of the vote.
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Jolly → defeat → vote
Jolly took an unlikely path to running for governor as a Democrat, joining the party in 2025 after leaving the GOP in 2018.
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Jolly → take → 2018
He has tapped former Democratic Rep. Gwen Graham as his running mate.
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He → tap → mate
The Republican nominee is Rep. Byron Donalds, who won the 11-candidate primary with the help of an endorsement from President Donald Trump.
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who → win → Trump
Donalds received about 48% of the primary vote, almost double that of the runner-up, Lt. Gov. Jay Collins.
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Donalds → receive → up
Donalds backed Trump over Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis in the 2024 presidential primaries and was considered as a possible Trump running mate that year.
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Donalds → back → mate
Trump and Vice President JD Vance have each campaigned for Donalds in Florida since the president launched his midterm campaign push last month.
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president → campaign → push
In this year’s Senate race, Republican Sen. Ashley Moody defends her seat against Democratic state Rep. Angie Nixon as well as an independent candidate.
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Moody → defend → candidate
Moody was state attorney general in January 2025 when DeSantis appointed her to fill the seat vacated by Marco Rubio, who was tapped by Trump to be secretary of state.
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who → appoint → state
She is now running to complete the final two years of Rubio’s term.
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She → run → term
Nixon, a democratic socialist, received 56% of the August primary vote against retired Army Lt. Col. Alex Vindman, who received about 44%.
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who → receive → %
His brother, Eugene, was elected to Congress from Virginia’s 7th District in 2024.
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brother → elect → 2024
If elected, Donalds would become Florida’s first Black governor and the nation’s first elected Black Republican governor.
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Donalds → elect → ?
Nixon would become the state’s first Black U.S. senator.
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Nixon → become → ?
Florida Democrats have faced a drought in statewide elections, particularly for governor.
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Democrats → face → governor
A Democrat last won the governorship more than 30 years ago.
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Democrat → win → governorship
DeSantis was reelected in 2022 with a 19-point margin over former Gov. Charlie Crist, another former Republican-turned-independent-turned-Democrat.
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DeSantis → reelect → Democrat
Democrats last won a Florida U.S. Senate seat in 2012.
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Democrats → win → 2012
The new congressional boundaries Republicans enacted in May essentially eliminate four congressional districts most recently represented by Democrats.
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Republicans → enact → Democrats
Three Democratic incumbents face tough challenges in newly drawn districts: Kathy Castor in the 14th District around Tampa, Darren Soto in the 9th District near Orlando and Jared Moskowitz in the 25th District in South Florida along the Gold Coast.
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incumbents → face → Coast
The redrawn 22nd Congressional District in South Florida also has a competitive race.
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District → have → race
It contains almost all of the current majority-Black 20th Congressional District, which had been represented by Democrat Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick before she resigned in April.
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she → contain → April
It also includes large portions of the current 26th and 18th Congressional Districts, which are both heavily Republican.
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which → include → Districts
In statewide elections, Democrats usually perform best in the Orlando and Tallahassee areas and in South Florida along the Gold Coast.
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Democrats → perform → Coast
Republicans usually post their strongest numbers in North Florida and the panhandle.
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Republicans → post → Florida
They also do well in Central Florida and along the Gulf of Mexico.
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They → do → Mexico
Trump narrowly won both counties in 2024, while Democrat Joe Biden narrowly carried both in 2020.
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Biden → win → 2020
Trump and Democrat Hillary Clinton split the counties in 2016.
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Trump → split → 2016
Trump narrowly carried it in 2024 and 2016, while Biden carried it narrowly in 2020.
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Biden → carry → 2020
Miami-Dade County in South Florida will also be a key county to watch.
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County → watch → Florida
In 2024, Trump made significant inroads with Latino voters and became the first Republican presidential candidate to win the county since George H.W. Bush in 1988.
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Trump → make → 1988
Here are some of the key facts about the election and data points the AP Decision Team will monitor as the votes are tallied:
When do polls close?
Polls close at 7 p.m. local time, which is 7 p.m. and 8 p.m. ET.
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which → monitor → p.m.
Most of the state is in Eastern time, and polls there close at 7 p.m. ET.
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polls → close → ET
A few counties are in Central time, and polls there close at 8 p.m. ET.
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polls → close → ET
…and 20 more, not listed.
The Aporia
