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The candidates who will decide the US midterm elections

Read the original at The Guardian ↗
Cite

Leingang, R. (2026, November 3). The candidates who will decide the US midterm elections. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ng-interactive/2026/nov/03/midterm-elections-candidates-swing-states

Dated from the outlet's own feed. Check the original for its byline.

The Guardian · collected 2026-11-03 · by Rachel Leingang

Quick Summary

The article discusses key candidates in upcoming US midterm elections, focusing on Abdul El-Sayed running against Republican Mike Rogers for a Senate seat in Michigan, Susan Collins seeking her sixth term as a moderate Republican facing Troy Jackson in Maine, Adam Hamilton challenging Republican Senator Roger Marshall in Kansas, and Jon Ossoff's likely successful bid for re-election in Georgia. Each candidate is profiled based on their unique political stance and challenges within their respective states.
Written by AI on 2026-11-03, from this article's own text only (the story summary below draws on all the coverage).

AI analysis

Story summary

As of November 3, 2026, Abdul El-Sayed, a former public health official and progressive candidate for US Senate in Michigan, faces Republican former congressman Mike Rogers in one of the most closely watched midterm elections. Despite Michigan having backed Donald Trump in the recent presidential election, El-Sayed's campaign, which emphasizes reducing outside political spending and advocating for Medicare for All, has gained significant traction among progressives. The race is marked by extensive outside spending exceeding tens of millions of dollars. Meanwhile, Susan Collins, a moderate Republican senator from Maine seeking her sixth term since 1997, continues to navigate the increasingly MAGA-aligned Washington during Trump's second presidency.

Written for “US Midterm Elections Candidates” on 2026-11-03, grounded in this article and the 0 other(s) covering the same event.
Why this leaning score
The article's own words the score was based on. Each is quoted verbatim and was checked against the article text before being stored, so you can find it in the original.
Reading Leans left (beta estimate) Confidence high 1 quote(s) discarded as not found in the article
Leaning: leans left for article 125354 (high confidence, 5 verified quotes) · logged 2026-11-03

Story

📰 US Midterm Elections Candidates
Politics · 1 article(s) covering the same event.

Compared with similar articles

This article reads leans left and hedges 6% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.
Reason
⚖️ Leans strongly left further left than this Hedges 6 of 73 claims Outlet record 67/100
“Article A discusses Abdul El-Sayed's political ideology and past, while Article B covers his current candidacy for US Senate in Michigan.”
CBC News
⚖️ Leans left Hedges 4 of 45 claims Outlet record 74/100
“The articles discuss different aspects of the Michigan Senate race without focusing on the same specific incident.”
Dawn
⚖️ Leans left Hedges 3 of 44 claims Outlet record 72/100
“Article A discusses Muslim American candidates broadly in various elections, while Article B focuses specifically on Abdul El-Sayed's candidacy for US Senate in Michigan.”
Al Jazeera
Hedges 13 of 69 claims Outlet record 60/100
“The articles cover different time periods and contexts related to US midterm elections, with Article A summarizing efforts two days before the election while Article B focuses on a candidate profile.”
CBS News
Hedges 5 of 39 claims Outlet record 66/100
“Article A discusses a specific campaign event involving El-Sayed and Rogers, while Article B provides general background on their race as one of the most watched midterm elections.”
Dawn
⚖️ Leans right further right than this Hedges 5 of 37 claims Outlet record 72/100
“Article A describes a specific endorsement by Haley Stevens of Republican Mike Rogers, while Article B provides background information about the candidates Abdul El-Sayed and Mike Rogers in the Michigan Senate race.”
ABC News (US)
Hedges 0 of 1 claims Outlet record 70/100
“Article A describes a twist in the Michigan Senate race with Haley Stevens supporting the Republican candidate, while Article B discusses Abdul El-Sayed winning the Democratic nomination and facing Mike Rogers.”
Al Jazeera
Hedges 0 of 2 claims Outlet record 60/100
“Article A describes a specific event on November 2, 2026, focusing on Trump's final pitch and an endorsement in Michigan. Article B provides background information about the candidates for the Senate race without describing any single occurrence.”
Country Over Party? Different event
The Dispatch
Hedges 0 of 2 claims Outlet record 61/100
“The articles discuss different aspects of Abdul El-Sayed's political career and do not refer to a single specific incident at the same time and place.”
Al Jazeera
Hedges 4 of 30 claims Outlet record 60/100
“The articles discuss different aspects of the campaign and do not focus on a single, specific incident.”
How this article was measured signals, leaning charts, publisher record, byline, topics and claims

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
62
sentences that state something as happening or true
Uncertain
6%
4 of 62 hedged ("reportedly", "may", "according to")
Leaning
Leans left
of the writing, not the subject · beta estimate
Publisher signals
66/100
The Guardian's corrections and hedging, across everything collected from it. Not a measure of accuracy.
Outlets on this story
1
Politics
Same framing elsewhere
1
articles that frame the event the way this one does
Analyzed 2026-11-03 · how these are computed

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Publisher

The Guardian · 1960 article(s) · 6 correction(s) detected
Running correction rate · 6 correction(s)

Who wrote this

Rachel Leingang
11 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 Democrats and independents have found a lane in rural areas stretched thin by gas costs, fertilizer increases, tariffs and healthcare cuts, though the third district was always expected to be competitive.
🔮 There’s no simple answer as to when US voters will know the results of the midterms.
🔮 Polls are suggesting it will not be a close-run thing.
2026-11-03 · assertive framing · The candidates who will decide the US midterm elections
🔮 US voters will soon deliver a national verdict on the second presidency of Donald Trump.
🔮 Hennepin county attorney Mary Moriarty announced the charges at a press conference on Wednesday, saying both would be charged with felonies for unlawful voting and identity theft.
🔮 While marquee races from Maine to Michigan get all the attention, and draw in a ton of money, a significant batch of lower-profile contests across the US could result in upsets.
🔮 ,” Ossoff said of the late civil rights icon and long-serving Georgia congressman, “Mike Collins would be grabbing a billy club.
🔮 In late August, a federal appeals court declined to dismiss criminal charges against McIver, who is charged with interfering with an arrest in May 2025 outside Delaney Hall, an immigration detention facility that has drawn protests over poor conditions inside.
🔮 It could decide the balance of power in Washington this November and stymie the president’s final years in office – and help determine what comes next for the left after Trump.
🔮 Crockett has said she “will be campaigning down ballot” when asked in recent weeks by CNN’s Laura Coates whether she would be campaigning with Talarico, saying she wanted to make sure that people in lower-profile races weren’t getting “overshadowed” by a focus just on the top of the ticket.
Also by Rachel Leingang
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 11 articles by Rachel Leingang →

Topics

Democrat Michigan Republican Senate US Senate

Subjects

Republican NORP · 7× Democrat NORP · 5× Democratic NORP · 5× Trump PERSON · 5× Georgia GPE · 3× Kansas GPE · 3× Michigan GPE · 3× Senate ORG · 3× US Senate ORG · 3× Abdul El-Sayed PERSON · 2×

Narrative

Enter Hamilton, who frequently calls for bipartisan politics that put Kansans first, even if that means standing up to Trump. Jon Ossoff Democratic US senator from Georgia Ossoff, the youngest US senator at 39, is seeking a second term in what should have been a tight race in Georgia, the southern swing state.
framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-11-03
🔮 Polls are suggesting it will not be a close-run thing.
2026-11-03 · The Guardian
The candidates who will decide the US midterm elections · assertive framing

Claims (62 extracted, 4 hedged)

Democratic candidate for US Senate in Michigan Abdul El-Sayed, a former public health official on the left of the Democratic party, beat a moderate member of Congress to win the party’s nomination for US Senate in Michigan, in a race clouded by tens of millions in outside spending. asserted
Sayed → beat → spending
He is facing Republican former congressman Mike Rogers in one of the country’s most-watched races. asserted
He → face → races
Michigan is a swing state: while the Senate seat they are fighting for has been held by a Democrat for 12 years, the state narrowly backed Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential election. asserted
state → fight → election
El-Sayed’s brand of tough talk and the simplicity of his campaign slogan (money out of politics, money in your pocket, Medicare for All) have made him a progressive star – and a frequent punching bag on the right, where prominent figures led by the president have leaned into Islamophobia to criticize him. asserted
figures → make → him
She has been serving since 1997, and is now seeking a sixth term. asserted
She → serve → term
A moderate Republican, she is a dying breed in the current Maga-tinged Washington during Trump’s second presidency. asserted
she → die → presidency
Maine is a battleground state: Kamala Harris won the state by a clear margin over Trump in 2024. asserted
Harris → win → 2024
Now Collins, 73, is trying to hang on to her seat in a race that Democrats have targeted as a key to winning back control of the Senate. asserted
Democrats → try → Senate
She initially faced Graham Platner, a Democrat who dropped out of the race after facing rape allegations. asserted
who → face → allegations
Now, Troy Jackson – a former logger who served in the state legislature – is trying to topple the longtime senator. asserted
who → serve → senator
Kansans have not sent a Democrat to the US Senate since 1932. asserted
Kansans → send → 1932
But Adam Hamilton, a megachurch pastor, won a crowded primary and has made the race one to watch this year. asserted
race → win → primary
While Kansas typically leans right, voters in the state have shown frustration with Republican senator Roger Marshall over inaccessibility and his alignment with Trump, as they struggling to afford fuel and groceries, and grapple with sustained economic instability. asserted
they → lean → instability
Plus, Marshall, who practiced medicine for 25 years, was revealed to have sued hundreds of his patients for unpaid bills, resulting in the arrests of dozens of them. asserted
who → practice → them
Enter Hamilton, who frequently calls for bipartisan politics that put Kansans first, even if that means standing up to Trump. Jon Ossoff Democratic US senator from Georgia Ossoff, the youngest US senator at 39, is seeking a second term in what should have been a tight race in Georgia, the southern swing state. asserted
what → enter → Georgia
Polls are suggesting it will not be a close-run thing. asserted
it → suggest → ?
have made his reelection seem all but inevitable – and given rise to near-constant murmurs that he’ll run for president in 2028, with regular comparisons to Barack Obama, in tone and in youthfulness. asserted
he → make → youthfulness
The pair rallied together in Georgia last week. asserted
pair → rally → Georgia
He has accused his opponent, Mike Collins, a Republican congressman, of being aligned with white supremacists – which Collins has vehemently denied. asserted
Collins → accuse → which
Could Texas finally flip – and could it be a theological Democrat – who does it? uncertain
who → flip → it
James Talarico, a 37-year-old state lawmaker, has been generating buzz – and raising record-breaking sums – in his run for the US Senate. asserted
Talarico → generate → Senate
Having fended off the firebrand Democratic congresswoman Jasmine Crockett in the Democratic primary, he now faces the state’s beleaguered Republican attorney general, Ken Paxton, in the general election. asserted
he → fend → election
With Trump’s backing, Paxton beat incumbent US senator John Cornyn in the Republican primary. asserted
Paxton → beat → primary
The nomination of Paxton – who has faced a host of fraud and misconduct scandals during his time in office – has prompted Republicans to drop tens of millions of dollars to defend a seat they typically win with a clear margin. asserted
they → face → margin
Talarico, dubbed “Talafreako” by Trump and his allies, has sought to win over independents and Republicans in the red state by appealing to their faith and speaking against corruption in politics. asserted
Talarico → dub → politics
Republican representative in Ohio Ohio’s seventh congressional district wouldn’t ordinarily be competitive; Trump won the district by 11 points in 2024. asserted
Trump → win → 2024
But damaging allegations surrounding Max Miller, the embattled Republican incumbent, have given Democrats hope that they might flip the red seat. uncertain
they → surround → seat
The 37-year-old Republican, who worked on Trump’s first presidential campaign, was elected to the seat in 2022. asserted
who → work → 2022
His ex-wife, Emily Moreno, who is the daughter of Republican US senator Bernie Moreno, has alleged Miller physically abused her and their daughter, which he denied. asserted
he → allege → which
Another of Miller’s ex-partners, former Trump press secretary Stephanie Grisham, has also accused Miller of physical abuse. asserted
Another → accuse → abuse
He denied that allegation, too. asserted
He → deny → allegation
The claims have featured heavily in ads against Miller in the district. uncertain
claims → feature → district
Brian Poindexter, the Democratic challenger, is a union ironworker focused on addressing the cost of living. asserted
Poindexter → focus → living
Mary Peltola is one of the few prominent Democrats who were deemed to pose a potential threat to incumbent Republican Dan S Sullivan. asserted
who → deem → Sullivan
She entered the race hoping to capitalize on Alaska’s recent independent streak and broad anti-Trump feelings. asserted
She → enter → streak
But in the final stretch, she faced allegations of mistreating staff by using slurs and shoving one aide – which her campaign downplayed, attributing Peltola’s behavior to stress. asserted
campaign → face → stress
Her campaign also faced accusations of ballot stacking by recruiting another candidate named Dan J Sullivan to run in the state’s open primary. asserted
campaign → face → primary
The New York Times reported that Peltola’s staff worked with the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee to add another Dan Sullivan to the ballot, thereby drawing votes away from the Republican senator. asserted
staff → report → senator
Peltola has said she knew nothing of the plan. asserted
she → say → plan
Her campaign also denied recruiting candidates into the race. asserted
campaign → deny → race
…and 22 more, not listed.
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