Michigan's midterm race may decide the next U.S. Congress — and tariffs are the main issue
State's Republican candidate for Senate distancing himself from Trump's tariff policy with Canada
Michigan’s Senate race is among the most hotly contested in the U.S. midterm elections, and the turning point may centre on a campaign ad in which the Republican candidate holds a Canadian beer.
"Drinking a Labatt and cheering on the Red Wings — it doesn’t get more Michigan than that," proclaims Mike Rogers, acknowledging the symbolic ties between the cross-border neighbours.
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Rogers → decide → neighbours
Then the ad quickly turns to the issue that has come to dominate the state’s tight political race.
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that → turn → race
"Here in Michigan, we know Canada is not our enemy," Rogers says, before stressing "we need to end this tariff war now."
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we → know → war
By doing so, Rogers did what few Republicans have: directly repudiated Donald Trump’s trade war.
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Republicans → do → war
Tariffs are felt across Michigan’s economy, particularly its signature industry.
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Tariffs → feel → economy
Many auto parts and vehicles made north of the border face a 25 per cent levy when they enter the United States.
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they → make → States
In the new year, that number will jump to 50 per cent, unless the two countries can strike a new trade deal.
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countries → jump → deal
Michigan's auto manufacturers have been hammered, causing Detroit’s biggest firms to hemorrhage money — and increase the price of a new car.
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firms → hammer → car
By one estimate, Trump’s tariffs have added $5,700 US to cars built in the highly integrated cross-border sector.
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tariffs → add → sector
Even for those not in the market for a new car, the National Taxpayers Union finds tariffs have cost the average American family $6,000 each year.
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tariffs → find → 6,000
At the start, President Trump claimed other countries would pay those extra costs.
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countries → claim → costs
But Americans increasingly don’t believe that.
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Americans → believe → that
Polling conducted by the libertarian CATO Institute finds 75 per cent of respondents say tariffs will be important to how they vote in the midterms.
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they → conduct → midterms
"We want more manufacturing," said Glenn Stevens of the automotive industry lobby group MichAuto.
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Stevens → want → group
"But we do not want that at the expense of our partnership and our trade relationship with Canada."
While his organization seeks to be non-partisan, he knows the Senate race in Michigan is so close that "it is going to swing probably on 10,000 votes."
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it → want → votes
And politicians are "trying to get to that undecided voter."
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politicians → try → voter
Michigan trades heavily with Ontario
Poll after poll shows the top issue for Michigan voters is the cost of living.
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issue → trade → living
"A lot of people still don't understand tariffs," said longtime Michigan pollster Ed Saropolus.
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Saropolus → understand → tariffs
But now they’ll say, "'I know they're not good for my bottom line.'
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they → say → line
"
Trump’s problem has become the problem of every Republican candidate — especially those in states that are highly reliant on trade with Canada.
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that → become → Canada
Republican strategist Jason Roe said 'there is no question the president has hurt himself' politically in Michigan with the tariffs on Canadian goods.
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president → say → goods
Michigan does more business with Ontario than it does with virtually every other U.S. state.
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it → do → state
"We probably feel the effects of the trade fight with Canada more than any other state," Republican strategist Jason Roe told CBC News on a visit to the state this month.
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Roe → feel → state
"There is no question the president has hurt himself" politically in Michigan.
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president → be → Michigan
"Control of Congress and control of the Senate could very well be decided right here in Michigan.
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Control → decide → Michigan
We have three competitive congressional seats.
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We → have → seats
Democrats only need four [nationally]."
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Democrats → need → four
It's a tight race between Rogers and Democratic candidate Abdul El-Sayed, with both parties and associated political action groups spending hundreds of millions of dollars in the campaign in Michigan alone.
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parties → associate → Michigan
Supporters of Republican Senate candidate Mike Rogers go door-knocking in Lansing, Mich.
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Supporters → go → Lansing
With the president’s national approval rating at a dismal 36 per cent, Republican candidates like Rogers are looking to create distance from Trump’s less-popular policies and actions.
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candidates → look → policies
That works its way into the message Rogers' supporters deliver when door-knocking across the state.
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supporters → work → state
"Mike Rogers is working to look at the Canadian tariffs and see which ones are costing Michiganders and reduce those," Aiden Haas of the Michigan College Republicans told his team in mid-October as they set out to rally support while going door to door in Lansing.
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they → work → Lansing
Despite the tariff-related tension, the Trump-friendly network Fox News has been focusing on the Democratic candidate's religion.
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network → relate → religion
There are near-daily segments pushing fears about El-Sayed, a charismatic physician who could become the first Muslim U.S. senator, should he win the state.
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he → be → state
Republicans accuse him of being a socialist and radical Islamist.
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Republicans → accuse → him
He rejects both claims regularly.
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He → reject → claims
In television ads, El-Sayed has called Trump’s tariffs "dumb."
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Sayed → call → tariffs
He has said he supports targeted tariffs to restore Michigan manufacturing, but calls the action against Canada "a vanity trade war that Donald Trump has decided to inflict upon all of us for no clear, observable reason."
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Trump → say → reason
Democrat Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed is putting U.S. President Donald Trump's trade war with Canada on the ballot in Michigan in the midterms.
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Sayed → put → midterms
Amid this trade tension, the personal attacks on El-Sayed have kept the race competitive, with polling suggesting a near-even split in support between the two candidates.
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polling → keep → candidates
…and 5 more, not listed.
The Aporia
