WASHINGTON (AP) — Six months ago, the South Carolina U.S. Senate race was expected to be another straightforward campaign for incumbent Lindsey Graham and his dominant Republican Party.
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race → expect → Graham
But Graham’s sudden death in July and the elevation of his political neophyte sister Darline from a placeholder role to seeking her own six-year term have roiled the race.
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death → seek → race
Now supporters of Democrat Annie Andrews can envision something that seemed impossible in this century of double-digit Republican wins — flipping a Senate seat in one of the nation’s most reliable GOP strongholds.
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that → envision → strongholds
Whoever wins will be the first woman elected to represent South Carolina in the U.S. Senate.
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wins → win → Senate
But that bit of history has taken a backseat to whispers that have grown into actual predictions that Andrews could be the first Democrat since 1998 to win a statewide race for the U.S. Senate or the governor’s office.
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Andrews → take → Senate
Darline Graham went from political sibling to stand-in senator
Darline Graham, by her own admission, is a reluctant candidate.
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Graham → go → admission
She was abruptly thrust into the political spotlight after her brother, a U.S. Senate stalwart, died seeking his fifth term.
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brother → thrust → term
Republican Gov. Henry McMaster appointed Darline Graham to finish her brother’s term in a widely hailed move, given the siblings’ close relationship.
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McMaster → appoint → relationship
Lindsey Graham helped raise his younger sister after their parents’ early deaths.
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Graham → help → deaths
Darline Graham’s decision to seek a full six-year term was more surprising.
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decision → seek → term
The snap primary, organized just a month after Lindsey Graham’s death, drew some of the top names in South Carolina politics.
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primary → organize → politics
President Donald Trump wanted Darline Graham in the Senate, and he immediately and forcefully backed her.
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he → want → her
The president had feuded with her brother at times but saw Lindsey Graham as an ally during his second White House term, particularly on the war with Iran.
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president → feud → Iran
As Darline Graham and U.S. Rep. Ralph Norman, an occasional Trump critic, battled it out in a primary runoff, the president campaigned for her in the state and returned twice in the final weeks before the election.
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president → battle → election
But that presidential backing may be eroding Graham’s support from both sides.
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backing → erode → sides
It bothers independent voters unhappy with Trump’s second term and Norman supporters on the right who are unhappy that the president interfered in what should be a decision left up to the state’s voters.
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what → bother → voters
Both groups are uneasy about Graham’s inexperience and the prospect of turning the seat into a Graham family dynasty.
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groups → turn → dynasty
In a primary debate, Graham was asked whether the U.S. has a national security interest in Taiwan and the South China Sea — a longstanding contention of both Democratic and Republican administrations.
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U.S. → ask → administrations
She struggled to answer before admitting, “National security is not my thing.”
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security → struggle → ?
As Republican-affiliated groups across the country reshuffled last-minute campaign spending, Senate Republicans’ primary super PAC sent reinforcements to deep-red South Carolina to shore up Graham, even as Republicans said they remained confident they would retain the seat.
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they → affiliate → seat
Annie Andrews retooled her campaign to face Darline Graham
Andrews had already been campaigning for more than a year and had won her primary outright when Lindsey Graham died, forcing her to rejigger a general election plan centered on ousting the incumbent.
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Graham → retool → incumbent
Andrews has benefited from South Carolina’s leadoff status on Democrats’ 2028 presidential nominating calendar.
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Andrews → benefit → calendar
Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly have visited the state, boosting her visibility and their own.
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Buttigieg → visit → visibility
But in recent weeks, Andrews has run an independent campaign and has rarely appeared alongside prominent Democrats from South Carolina or elsewhere.
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Andrews → run → Carolina
She has focused on economic problems and says Graham will be like her brother, a part of the same Washington cabal that enriches only itself and cares little about the people back home.
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that → focus → people
When they met for their sole debate last month, Graham and Andrews traded barbs over the economy, war with Iran and artificial intelligence.
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Graham → meet → Iran
But they mostly argued over who was less qualified for the South Carolina Senate seat.
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who → argue → seat
Andrews came up short in a 2022 challenge to Rep. Nancy Mace but has remained visible since, though she’s never held office or run statewide.
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she → come → office
Graham fended off Andrews’ accusation that the Republican was seeking to ride her brother’s political coattails, saying she had legally kept her maiden name to maintain a connection to her parents, both of whom died when she was young.
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she → fend → whom
“Thank you for bringing up a horrible, tragic memory for me,” she added.
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she → thank → me
It’s been decades since South Carolina elected a Democrat to the US Senate
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Carolina → elect → Senate
A New York Times/Siena poll conducted in October appeared to show a close race.
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poll → conduct → race
But polls also showed an apparently close race in 2020, when Lindsey Graham, Democrat Jaime Harrison and outside groups supporting their campaigns spent hundreds of millions of dollars in South Carolina’s most expensive election.
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Graham → show → election
In that reelection, Lindsey Graham’s last, the Republican sailed back into office by a 10-percentage-point margin.
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Republican → sail → margin
The last Democrat elected to a Senate seat in South Carolina was Fritz Hollings, who won his final term in 1998.
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who → elect → 1998
Since then, Republicans have held both Senate seats, and only one Democrat — Jim Clyburn — represents the state in the U.S. House.
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Democrat → hold → House
Republicans have benefited from straight-ticket voting, which allows voters to choose all GOP candidates on their ballot.
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voters → benefit → ballot
The race for South Carolina’s open governor’s seat hasn’t appeared as close as the U.S. Senate contest.
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race → appear → contest
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Collins reported from Columbia, South Carolina.
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Collins → report → Columbia
The Aporia
