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South Carolina tossup means state may elect Democrat to Senate for first time in 28 years

Read the original at The Guardian ↗
Cite

Washington, J. G. i. (2026, October 29). South Carolina tossup means state may elect Democrat to Senate for first time in 28 years. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/oct/29/south-carolina-senate-tied-race

Dated from the outlet's own feed. Check the original for its byline.

The Guardian · collected 2026-10-29 · by Joseph Gedeon in Washington

Quick Summary

A new poll shows South Carolina’s US Senate race between Democrat Annie Andrews and Republican incumbent Darline Graham to be a tie at 48% each, challenging the state's long-standing Republican dominance in national elections since 1998. Graham, appointed after her brother's death with Trump’s endorsement, faces criticism for lacking experience, particularly on national security issues, while Andrews campaigns on healthcare reform and distancing herself from party left-wing positions to appeal to independents.
Written by AI on 2026-10-29, from this article's own text only (the story summary below draws on all the coverage).

AI analysis

Story summary

As of October 29, 2026, the South Carolina Senate race between Republican incumbent Senator Darline Graham and Democratic candidate Annie Andrews is now considered a toss-up by Fox News, following a New York Times/Siena poll that shows both candidates tied at 48% each. This marks the first time since 1998 that South Carolina may elect a Democrat to the Senate. President Donald Trump has become personally invested in Graham's campaign, holding multiple rallies and using derogatory language against Andrews. However, Andrews has managed to build her campaign around healthcare issues, advocating for a public option and cheaper prescription drugs while distancing herself from the Democratic party’s left flank. Meanwhile, 51% of voters believe Graham lacks the right experience to be an effective senator due to her inexperience in national security matters.

Written for “South Carolina Senate Race Toss-up” on 2026-10-29, grounded in this article and the 3 other(s) covering the same event.
Why this leaning score
The model judged this article politically coded and scored it +0.35, but every quote it verified points left, so the score is not published.
Written under an earlier scoring contract, which gave a paragraph rather than checkable quotes. Re-analysing this article replaces it.
Leaning score withheld for article 114921: score contradicts its own evidence · logged 2026-10-29

Story

📰 South Carolina Senate Race Toss-up
Politics · 4 article(s) covering the same event. See how they differ ↓

Compared with similar articles

This article reads unscored and hedges 5% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.
The Bulwark
Hedges 4 of 98 claims
Silver Bulletin
Hedges 9 of 44 claims
“The articles discuss the South Carolina Senate race but describe different aspects: Article A speculates about potential outcomes if Democrats have a good night, while Article B reports on current polling that shows the race as a toss-up.”
Washington Examiner
Hedges 0 of 3 claims Outlet record 70/100
The Bulwark
Hedges 1 of 3 claims
“Article A discusses a broader analysis of Senate races across multiple states, while Article B focuses on a specific poll result for the South Carolina Senate race.”
How this article was measured signals, leaning charts, publisher record, byline, topics and claims

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
19
sentences that state something as happening or true
Uncertain
5%
1 of 19 hedged ("reportedly", "may", "according to")
Leaning
withheld
no quote in the article backed the model's score
Publisher signals
67/100
The Guardian's corrections and hedging, across everything collected from it. Not a measure of accuracy.
Outlets on this story
4
Politics
Same framing elsewhere
1
articles that frame the event the way this one does
Analyzed 2026-10-29 · how these are computed

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Publisher

The Guardian · 1802 article(s) · 5 correction(s) detected
Running correction rate · 5 correction(s)

Who wrote this

Joseph Gedeon in Washington
23 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 But she has kept her distance from the Democratic party’s left flank, saying she does not support the Medicare for All proposed model of universal healthcare, while also conceding that Democrats failed on the border, and declining to name a national Democrat she would like to campaign with her.
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🔮 It will devour America if we let it.”
🔮 At the event on Saturday, an attendee who gave his name only as “Tommy” shouted from the crowd, asking whether El-Sayed would disavow the movement.
🔮 “He spun this story up again in the hopes that the judge would be lenient, or the prosecutor would be.”
🔮 “We have asked ambassador Guilfyole to resign, she has been a wonderful asset to the team and we wish her well,” said Katie Zacharia, the new White House press secretary, during her first briefing on Tuesday.
🔮 The US senator Chris Murphy said the Pentagon blocked him from a major US base in Qatar, yet saw enough damage on the US embassy in Saudi Arabia to conclude that an Iranian strike would have been deadly had it happened during the day.
🔮 Pete Hegseth has said the execution of Nidal Hasan, the former army psychiatrist who killed 13 people at Fort Hood, will be a public event when the sentence is carried out later this year.
🔮 The figure could not be independently verified.
🔮 Any suspension would require an act of Congress.
2026-10-06 · assertive framing · Trump says he is weighing suspension of federal gas tax
Also by Joseph Gedeon in Washington
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 23 articles by Joseph Gedeon in Washington →

Topics

Democrat New York Times Republican Senate South Carolina

Subjects

Graham PERSON · 7× Republican NORP · 4× Trump PERSON · 4× Andrews PERSON · 3× Democrat NORP · 3× South Carolina GPE · 2× Annie Andrews PERSON · 1× Darline Graham PERSON · 1× Donald Trump PERSON · 1× Senate ORG · 1×

Narrative

But she has kept her distance from the Democratic party’s left flank, saying she does not support the Medicare for All proposed model of universal healthcare, while also conceding that Democrats failed on the border, and declining to name a national Democrat she would like to campaign with her.
framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-10-29
🔮 But she has kept her distance from the Democratic party’s left flank, saying she does not support the Medicare for All proposed model of universal healthcare, while also conceding that Democrats failed on the border, and declining to name a national Democrat she would like to campaign with her.

Claims (19 extracted, 1 hedged)

A US Senate race in one of the most Republican states in the country is now a dead heat, according to a new poll showing Annie Andrews, a Democrat, tied with Darline Graham, the Republican incumbent senator. uncertain
Andrews → accord → Graham
South Carolina has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1998, and Donald Trump won it by nearly 18 points in 2024, but a New York Times/Siena poll this week has the two candidates neck and neck, at 48% each. asserted
candidates → elect → %
Graham was appointed to the seat after her brother, Lindsey Graham, died in July, and she entered the race at Trump’s urging, without having ever held elected office. asserted
she → appoint → office
Her inexperience has become one of the defining aspects of the campaign, which culminated in an August debate when she admitted she was “not that informed on national security” when asked about US policy on Taiwan. asserted
she → become → Taiwan
In the poll, 51% of voters said she lacked the right experience to be an effective senator. asserted
she → say → experience
Andrews, a pediatrician from Charleston, has meanwhile built her campaign around her medical career. asserted
Andrews → build → career
Her solution to better access to doctors and climbing medical bills has been to advocate for a public option and cheaper prescription drugs. asserted
solution → climb → option
But she has kept her distance from the Democratic party’s left flank, saying she does not support the Medicare for All proposed model of universal healthcare, while also conceding that Democrats failed on the border, and declining to name a national Democrat she would like to campaign with her. asserted
she → keep → her
That pitch appears to be working with independents, who back her over Graham by 57% to 37%. asserted
who → appear → %
Graham, by contrast, is leaning heavily on Trump’s support. asserted
Graham → lean → support
She opposes abortion rights, and has said she completely trusts Trump on tariffs and the war with Iran. asserted
she → oppose → Iran
On immigration, she’s argued that anyone in the country illegally should be deported “immediately”. asserted
anyone → argue → country
Trump visited the state last week to rally for Graham in a 90-minute speech, calling Andrews extreme and drawing repeated interruptions from protesters. asserted
Trump → visit → protesters
He returns again on Thursday. asserted
He → return → Thursday
Republicans are spending heavily in South Carolina, despite their longstanding electoral dominance in the state. asserted
Republicans → spend → state
The party’s establishment is also not entirely united: one Republican congressman, Ralph Norman, who lost the runoff against Graham, has said he will not campaign for her. asserted
he → unite → her
Other recent polls show an equally tight contest, though most have Graham narrowly ahead. asserted
most → show → contest
A South Carolina Policy Council survey conducted this month gave Graham a one-point lead, within its margin of error. asserted
survey → conduct → error
That same poll showed how much Andrews has been outrunning her own party – the Democratic candidate for governor, Jermaine Johnson, trailed the Republican, Alan Wilson, by 10 points. asserted
candidate → show → points
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