The US Republican Party is entering the midterm elections with Donald Trump's administration seemingly unable to either win or diplomatically resolve the Iran war.
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administration → enter → war
If the Republican lose control of the US Congress, the administration will have to navigate an entirely different political landscape for the rest of Trump's second term, but the course of the war is not decided just in Washington — or in Tehran.
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course → lose → Tehran
Seeking to identify key factors that could tip the balance towards war or peace in Iran, DW spoke to three analysts: Omid Memarian of DAWN, a Washington-based think tank focused on reforming US Middle East policy; Finland-based political scientist Leila Morrovati; and Babak Rezaei Daryakenari of Leiden University in the Netherlands.
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DW → seek → Netherlands
US midterms: Is Trump set for more scrutiny?
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Trump → set → scrutiny
A Democratic victory would push Trump to focus more on domestic issues and would likely expose the financial costs of the war in the US Congress, Omid Memarian told DW.
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Memarian → push → DW
However, Trump could continue limited strikes on Iran without formally declaring war.
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Trump → continue → war
Memarian predicts that Trump will seek a way out that "saves face" after the Tuesday election.
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that → predict → election
Referring to Trump, the analyst says Tehran is engaged in a "big gamble with someone who does not behave like a conventional politician."
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who → refer → politician
This increases the risk of renewed attacks.
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This → increase → attacks
Babak Rezaei Daryakenari makes a similar point: "The president has broad authority and freedom of action, especially in foreign policy and the conduct of military operations.
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president → make → operations
A Republican defeat, even with increased pressure from Congress, doesn't necessarily stop new attacks."
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defeat → stop → attacks
2. Political deadlock in Israel puts pressure on Netanyahu
Israel's October 27 election ended in deadlock.
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election → put → deadlock
Neither the coalition around incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, nor the camp supporting former IDF chief Gadi Eisenkot managed to secure an outright majority.
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coalition → support → majority
Memarian warns the political uncertainty could push Netanyahu to take serious moves while he still wields power, making the transition period the "most fragile and dangerous" for renewed escalation.
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period → warn → escalation
A change of government in Israel would not fundamentally alter Israel's Iran policy, Memarian says.
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Memarian → alter → policy
Netanyahu's main rival, former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, "may be more deferential to America" and coordinate more closely with Washington.
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rival → coordinate → Washington
But ties with Trump are personal, and Eisenkot "certainly won't be like Netanyahu, who could sell any plan or scenario to Trump."
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who → sell → Trump
Rezaei Daryakenari stresses that Israel's security concerns about Iran "are not limited to Netanyahu himself."
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concerns → stress → Netanyahu
A new government could change the timing of a confrontation and its coordination with Washington, but the security establishment and ruling coalition would also shape the risk of an attack, he said.
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he → change → attack
The nuclear impasse: US and Iran working from different playbooks
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US → work → playbooks
Iran's nuclear program remains the biggest open issue between Washington and Tehran, with the US rejecting the Iranian narrative that the program is meant only for civilian use.
But the two sides are also at odds on how the talks themselves should be set up, says Memarian.
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Memarian → remain → odds
"The US wants negotiations to start not only with a focus on Iran's nuclear program but with concessions right at the outset," he said.
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he → want → outset
Iran, by contrast, wants sanctions lifted and frozen assets released before nuclear talks begin.
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talks → want → contrast
If the sides don't move closer, Memarian warns, the odds of a renewed war rise.
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odds → move → war
Until the sides agree on an agenda, he says, they are likely to keep "climbing the ladder of tension."
Leila Morovati, a Finland-based political analyst, says the nuclear program is "the crux" of the standoff.
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program → agree → standoff
Tehran sees it as a survival guarantee and bargaining chip, she argues.
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she → see → guarantee
In turn, Washington fears that a nuclear Iran would upend its security calculations and long-term strategy for the Middle East and beyond, which is why it insists on putting the issue on the table first.
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it → fear → table
Before the Iran war was launched in late February, about 20% of the world's oil passed through the Strait of Hormuz.
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% → launch → Hormuz
Iran has since drastically cut on the energy exports through the naval chokepoint, using at as leverage on US and Israel.
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Iran → cut → US
But Memarian argues that Iranian restrictions in the strait won't trigger escalation on their own.
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restrictions → argue → own
If Washington decides a broader attack is needed to change Tehran's calculations, any incident could serve as a pretext, he says.
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he → decide → pretext
If Washington considers the risks too high, it may opt for an economic blockade while keeping negotiations on the table.
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it → consider → table
In that scenario, "even occasional tensions in the Strait of Hormuz won't pull America into war," according to the US-based analyst.
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tensions → pull → analyst
The Houthi rebels in Yemen have also been targeting energy exports in the Red Sea, including attacks on Saudi cities and infrastructure.
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rebels → target → cities
But Memarian notes the Yemeni rebels' roots and struggle are "entirely domestic and organic" despite their ideological closeness to Tehran.
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roots → note → Tehran
Memarian says the Houthis make "pragmatic calculations" and their actions do not necessarily translate into an escalation between Iran and the US.
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actions → say → Iran
Still, the US could use the rebels' action as a pretext to strike Iran again.
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US → use → Iran
Rezaei Daryakenari offers a slightly different assessment.
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Daryakenari → offer → assessment
Houthi attacks on shipping and on countries in the region, he says, "can both widen the war and accelerate coalition-building against the Islamic Republic."
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he → say → Republic
Countries that don't want war with Tehran "may turn to closer military cooperation to protect their trade and security."
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that → want → trade
…and 26 more, not listed.
The Aporia
