Welcome back to How We Win, a Guardian opinion series with leading thinkers, offering bold ideas for America’s political future.
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We → welcome → future
Last week, Katie Phang argued that the Epstein files are a midterms sledgehammer.
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files → argue → ?
Today’s edition was written by Judd Legum, the founder and author of Popular Information.
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edition → write → Information
An unprecedented influx of cash from tech billionaires and corporate interests have been injected into the midterms to sway the election.
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influx → inject → election
With the fate of US democracy hanging in the balance, millions of Americans have faced a cacophony of provocative – and often inaccurate – messages precisely calibrated to shift their preferences.
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millions → hang → preferences
Right now, it is next to impossible for the average voter to sort through the noise.
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voter → sort → noise
Overall, spending on federal elections in the United States has exploded in recent years – rising from $3.8bn in the 2014 midterm elections to $8.9bn in 2022.
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spending → explode → 2022
This year’s congressional midterms are on pace to break that record.
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midterms → break → record
A growing amount of this spending is so-called dark money, funds where the donor legally does not have to be disclosed.
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donor → grow → spending
Last month, the Brennan Center estimated, conservatively, that $1.3bn in dark money had already been deployed in the 2026 midterms, more than twice the amount spent through election day during the 2022 midterms.
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1.3bn → estimate → midterms
Even when the donor is publicly disclosed, the money is routed through a vaguely named group, and few voters have the time or inclination to look up who funds it.
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who → disclose → it
Much of the dark and functionally dark money has come from Super Pacs funded by billionaires, including Elon Musk and Jeff Yass, and corporate interests, particularly the AI and crypto industries.
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Much → come → Musk
In 2026, Super Pacs have flooded the airwaves, mailboxes and the internet with false and misleading advertisements.
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Pacs → flood → advertisements
For example, the false claim (or implication) that Senate candidate James Talarico in Texas supported “taxpayer-funded sex change surgeries on kids”, Senate candidate Roy Cooper released a murderer from prison, or gubernatorial candidate Amy Acton is an alcoholic.
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Acton → support → prison
(It was Vivek Ramaswamy’s own campaign that did the now infamous ad against Acton, featuring her estranged mother.)
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that → do → mother
Although about 60% of dark money spent this cycle has benefited Republicans, and Republican-aligned groups are responsible for many of the most outrageous claims, it is a bipartisan problem.
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it → spend → claims
A Democratic Super Pac called WinSenate claimed “Jeffrey Epstein’s business partner funneled $3 million” to a Pac supporting the Republican Maine Susan Collins.
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partner → call → Collins
PolitiFact rated the ad false.
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PolitiFact → rat → ad
WinSenate receives much of its funding from billionaires, via another Super Pac, Senate Majority Pac.
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WinSenate → receive → Pac
Without question, the billions of dollars in dark money will influence the composition of the next Congress, and Super Pac spending profoundly impacts a race, beyond possibly shifting votes.
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spending → influence → votes
Campaigns are forced to respond, even when an attack has no factual basis.
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attack → force → basis
To counter pricey TV ads, candidates are diverted from voter events to fundraising functions.
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candidates → counter → functions
With a limited pool of money, parties and outside groups divert resources from other races.
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parties → divert → races
We don’t have to accept the world as it is.
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it → have → world
There are several ways we can combat dark money, as the balance of power shifts in Washington.
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balance → be → Washington
We don’t have to accept the world as it is.
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it → have → world
There are several ways we can combat dark money, as the balance of power shifts in Washington.
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balance → be → Washington
The first is to limit the amount of money billionaires and corporations can spend on elections.
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billionaires → limit → elections
This has been tried, in fits and starts, since the 1970s.
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This → try → 1970s
But efforts to restrict such spending have generally been invalidated by the courts.
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efforts → restrict → courts
After Congress banned “soft money” – unlimited donations to political parties from corporations, unions and wealthy individuals – the cash was simply diverted to other entities, including Super Pacs.
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cash → ban → Pacs
The second tactic would be to reduce the effectiveness of dark money.
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tactic → reduce → money
Multiple academic studies conducted over the last 15 years have found that attack ads from outside groups become meaningfully less effective after voters are provided with information about the donors behind the ads.
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voters → conduct → ads
In other words, requiring Super Pacs and other groups to disclose the top donors to their advertisements would blunt their impact.
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requiring → require → impact
Right now, Elon Musk is spending tens of millions of dollars on misleading attack ads that are “Paid for by America Pac”.
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that → spend → Pac
If those advertisements were required to disclose that virtually all of America Pac’s money comes from Musk, voters would view them much differently.
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voters → require → them
Notably, the courts have upheld the constitutionality of increased disclosure requirements.
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courts → uphold → requirements
In 2024, the United States court of appeals for the ninth circuit upheld Alaska’s requirement to include donor information on advertisements related to state campaigns.
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court → uphold → campaigns
The supreme court declined to hear the case.
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court → decline → case
Making donor disclosure requirements meaningful would require closing a few loopholes.
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requirements → make → loopholes
…and 12 more, not listed.
The Aporia
