Chris Pappas is stopping himself from getting too excited ahead of Tuesday’s midterm election.
asserted
Pappas → stop → election
“I take nothing for granted,” said the four-term US representative and Democratic nominee for New Hampshire’s open Senate seat.
asserted
representative → take → seat
The race to replace the retiring Democratic senator Jeanne Shaheen has emerged as a source of 11th hour anxiety for the party.
asserted
race → replace → party
In their attempt to gain four seats and reclaim control of the Senate, Democrats can’t afford to lose one they already hold.
asserted
they → gain → one
But September polling showing Pappas virtually tied with his Republican opponent, former senator John Sununu, rattled party strategists and raised the prospect that New Hampshire could become an unexpected battleground.
uncertain
Hampshire → show → prospect
The warning signs were striking in a state Donald Trump has lost in each of his three presidential bids.
asserted
Trump → strike → bids
The blessing and curse of Trump’s shadow
While Pappas has regained a narrow advantage in most polls, and the Cook Political Report moved the race in early October from “toss-up” to “lean Democrat”
asserted
Report → regain → Democrat
, his closing message has focused heavily on tying Sununu to an unpopular president.
asserted
message → focus → president
Trump’s approval rating sits at just 32% in the state, according to a recent University of New Hampshire poll, giving Democrats hope that voter frustration with the administration will ultimately benefit Pappas’s run.
“Sununu has spent most of the last year on team Trump, and now that we’re getting within range of the election, he’s recognizing how unpopular the president is,” Pappas said as he traveled the state in the final days on the trail, often joined by party heavyweights, like Arizona senator Mark Kelly and former vice-president Kamala Harris.
uncertain
he → sit → Kelly
Democrats believe political headwinds facing Republicans have been strengthened by rising high gas prices and heating-oil costs linked to the war with Iran.
asserted
headwinds → believe → Iran
More than a third of New Hampshire households rely on heating oil, and colder temperatures have pushed the issue to the forefront of voters’ minds ahead of election day.
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temperatures → rely → day
“People are now starting to get really angry,” said Jim Demers, a veteran New Hampshire Democratic strategist.
asserted
Demers → start → ?
“I think a lot of people see Sununu as just one more Republican who will try to talk a good game, but when push comes to shove, he will not stand up to Trump because Republicans in Washington have a record of not doing it.”
asserted
Republicans → think → it
For voters like Randy Marchand, who is supporting Pappas, but considers himself an independent, the Republican party is ultimately a rubber stamp for the president’s agenda.
asserted
party → support → agenda
“I’m afraid for our democracy … right now the Republican party is no more,” said the 54-year-old flight attendant, who lives in Manchester.
asserted
who → ’m → Manchester
“They will say one thing to get in, and will ultimately come down to what Trump wants.”
asserted
Trump → say → what
Sununu, however, has spent much of the campaign arguing that independence, not loyalty, defines his political record.
asserted
independence → spend → record
The former senator has emphasized his criticism of Trump’s trade war with Canada, which has affected several industries in the state, and in a recent campaign advertisement, he even claimed to have “never met” the president.
asserted
he → emphasize → president
The former senator’s anti-Trump bona fides do have some roots.
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fides → have → roots
In 2024, he voiced his support or Nikki Haley in an op-ed during Republican primary campaign, and also branded Trump a “loser”.
asserted
he → voice → Trump
This week, during the final televised Senate debate, Pappas argued that Sununu initially backed the administration’s decision to launch strikes on Iran.
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Sununu → televise → Iran
Sununu countered that the congressman “exaggerates” his position and noted that he has consistently opposed putting American troops on the ground.
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he → counter → ground
Democrats dismiss those distinctions as largely tactical.
asserted
Democrats → dismiss → distinctions
“Sununu has spent most of the last year on Team Trump, and you know now that we’re getting within range of the election, he’s recognizing how unpopular the president is,” Pappas said in an interview.
asserted
Pappas → spend → interview
(The Sununu campaign did not respond to the Guardian’s request for an interview.)
asserted
campaign → respond → interview
Sununu’s Trump problem is also causing consternation for some Republican operatives in the state.
asserted
problem → cause → state
While New Hampshire voters like “local Republican control”, it might “be a little too much to send Trump an additional senator when the president’s numbers are just so low.
uncertain
numbers → like → senator
It’s very difficult to articulate why a Republican should win that seat,” said one New Hampshire strategist who spoke on the condition of anonymity to comment candidly on the race.
asserted
who → ’ → race
“The war in Iraq is what broke the back of the Republican party in New Hampshire 20 years ago,” the operative added, noting that Sununu’s support for the initial authorization contributed to his failed re-election bid in 2008.
asserted
support → break → 2008
“Now we have a war in Iran, and while it’s asymmetric, it is economic.
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it → have → Iran
That psychological toll certainly doesn’t help.”
asserted
toll → help → ?
A history of ticket splitting
New Hampshire’s habit of ticket-splitting complicates any effort to view the Senate race solely through a national lens.
asserted
habit → complicate → lens
The state’s congressional delegation is all-Democratic, while Republicans control the state legislature and the governor’s office.
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Republicans → control → legislature
In 2024, voters backed Kamala Harris for president while electing Republican Kelly Ayotte as governor.
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voters → back → governor
John McAllister, a firefighter in Nashua, said that he and his association were supporting Pappas this election, while also backing Ayotte – who is leading the polls in her re-election race against Cinde Warmington.
asserted
who → say → Warmington
Pappas has been a “true supporter” of firefighters’ issues “as long as he’s been in the House”, McAllister said.
asserted
McAllister → say → House
Meanwhile, Ayotte’s work on pension restoration for public safety employees in New Hampshire has put “thousands of dollars” back into first responders’ pockets, he said.
asserted
he → put → pockets
As a result, a consistently blue or red vote is never guaranteed.
asserted
vote → guarantee → result
“We have proven time and time again to go either Republican or Democrat,” McAllister said.
asserted
McAllister → prove → Republican
Two establishment figures fight it out
Unlike many of this year’s Senate contests, New Hampshire’s race pits two deeply familiar political brands against one another.
asserted
race → fight → one
…and 33 more, not listed.
The Aporia
