Americans are angry about war and prices, and a president’s second midterm is always difficult — but a series of decisions by President Donald Trump has made Republicans’ Senate majority ever-more vulnerable.
asserted
majority → make → Trump
The mark Trump made on the midterms began in the summer of 2024, when he selected former Ohio Sen. JD Vance as his running mate.
asserted
he → make → mate
Since then, the president’s personnel and political decisions have reshaped the Senate battleground from what looked like an impenetrable red wall into a toss-up.
asserted
what → reshape → up
His decision to pick Vance opened up a special election in Ohio that will by the end of this week cost the GOP hundreds of millions of dollars and potentially a Senate seat.
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that → pick → dollars
Trump’s party-boss mentality in North Carolina, Texas, and South Carolina has further contributed to the yawning battleground.
asserted
mentality → contribute → battleground
He endorsed Rep. Mike Collins in Georgia’s Senate race against Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff — a contest that never really got off the ground after Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp, whom Trump tried to take down in a primary in 2022, passed on the race.
asserted
Trump → endorse → race
Ossoff is favored to win.
asserted
Ossoff → favor → ?
And party insiders blame Trump’s tariffs and war with Iran for creating a volatile Senate map that has left seats in red states like Nebraska and Kansas vulnerable.
asserted
that → blame → Nebraska
Republicans could hold the chamber — or lose as many as a half-dozen seats on Tuesday.
uncertain
Republicans → hold → Tuesday
“Every negative for the GOP this cycle is a downstream effect of Iran,” said a person close to the White House.
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person → say → House
Republicans can lose up to three seats and still keep Senate control.
asserted
Republicans → lose → control
Trump’s zeal on the campaign trail is undeniable and he helped direct huge sums of money into the midterms, albeit later than many Republicans would have liked.
asserted
Republicans → direct → midterms
He spent the last weekend capping off a breakneck fall campaign schedule stumping in Iowa and Kansas, two places where the GOP was strongly favored to win a few months ago but now is struggling.
asserted
GOP → spend → Iowa
“President Trump has a 97% endorsement record and he remains the best turnout machine for our base voters,” said Republican National Committee press secretary Natalie Baldassarre.
asserted
Baldassarre → have → voters
Trump is hosting nearly 20 tele-rallies in the last days of the campaign, in addition to his almost-daily travel for rallies over the past month.
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Trump → host → month
The White House has sought to emphasize the administration’s accomplishments on issues like the border, crime, and US investment and manufacturing, as they look to encourage low-propensity voters to turn out for Republicans.
asserted
they → seek → Republicans
“President Trump is the unequivocal leader, best messenger, and unmatched motivator for the Republican Party, and he is committed to maintaining Republican majorities in Congress,” White House spokesman Davis Ingle said.
asserted
Ingle → commit → Congress
But his moves to reshape the party in his image over the past two years also often showed little regard for conventional political risk assessment.
asserted
moves → reshape → assessment
Trump created two special elections with decisions to put Vance as his vice president and Marco Rubio, a popular former Florida senator, as his secretary of state.
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Trump → create → state
On Tuesday, Democrats are underdogs in Florida after nominating democratic socialist Angie Nixon to face appointed GOP Sen. Ashley Moody.
asserted
Democrats → nominate → Moody
The race is more competitive than expected but not a five-alarm fire like Ohio, where Vance’s replacement, Sen. Jon Husted, R-Ohio, is in a precarious position.
asserted
replacement → expect → position
The longtime preference of Husted, a former lieutenant governor, was to run for governor, according to multiple people familiar with internal party deliberations.
uncertain
preference → run → deliberations
He was instead appointed to the Senate and Vivek Ramaswamy ran for governor; Ramaswamy now trails Democrat Amy Action.
asserted
Ramaswamy → appoint → Action
A campaign spokesperson for Husted said that he “is completely focused on retiring Sherrod Brown once and for all this Tuesday.”
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he → say → all
“Public polls in the national media have gotten Ohio wrong every election cycle since 2016,” one Ohio GOP operative argued.
asserted
operative → get → 2016
drama in the south
A year after selecting Vance, Trump tangled with Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., over healthcare cuts included in the tax cut law, prompting Tillis to retire.
asserted
Trump → select → Tillis
Tillis told Semafor afterward that Trump’s backing might not have helped anyway: “I’m not sure that his endorsement would have helped me in a general election in North Carolina next year, to be quite candid.
uncertain
endorsement → tell → Carolina
Trump quickly cleared the field for former RNC Chair Michael Whatley, avoiding a costly primary, but Whatley’s candidacy crumpled against his Democratic opponent, former Gov. Roy Cooper.
asserted
candidacy → clear → opponent
Senate Majority Leader John Thune said in an interview last summer that Tillis was “established” and “knew how to run and win in North Carolina,” while also praising Whatley as a candidate who could win with Republicans united behind him.
uncertain
who → say → him
In recent weeks, however, Republicans essentially ceded the race as the battleground map expanded to places like Texas.
asserted
map → cede → Texas
Thune and many sitting GOP senators had hoped to convince Trump to back Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas.
asserted
Thune → sit → Cornyn
But Trump gave Cornyn the cold shoulder after the Texas Republican’s remarks questioning Trump’s viability heading into the 2024 election cycle.
asserted
Trump → give → cycle
Trump instead backed Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, who won the nomination.
asserted
who → back → nomination
Paxton is trailing in most polls while receiving the most air support of any candidate.
asserted
Paxton → trail → candidate
“Texas was an unforced error, I think, on the part of the president,” Cornyn told Semafor in previously unreported comments earlier this year.
asserted
Cornyn → think → comments
“We spent a lot of money trying to win the nomination, but the promise was that if I won the nomination, then that would be a layup in November.
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that → spend → November
That’s all off the table.
asserted
That → ’ → table
Had they been nominated again, Cornyn and Tillis may have had tough races too, but most Republicans now believe they would have been closer.
uncertain
they → nominate → races
Paxton could still win, but the race undoubtedly opens up a shocking vulnerability in Republicans’ red wall.
uncertain
race → win → wall
After the death of his longtime ally, Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., Trump backed Sen. Darline Graham, R-S.C., who most senators thought would be an interim senator.
asserted
senators → back → Graham
…and 14 more, not listed.
The Aporia
