Canada's next budget to be unveiled this week amid U.S. trade war, economic uncertainty
asserted
budget → unveil → war
Carney government expected to frame budget as ambitious but fiscally sound
Prime Minister Mark Carney's second budget — set to be unveiled on Thursday — will include new affordability measures, business tax incentives and investments in infrastructure, defence and culture, according to a senior government source.
uncertain
budget → expect → source
Canadians can also expect more details about previous announcements, such as plans for private investment in Canada's four biggest airports and how the government will meet its promise to balance the operational budget a year early.
asserted
government → expect → budget
As well, there could be further explanation of how much foreign direct investment is coming into Canada and, more specifically, where it's being invested, according to the official.
uncertain
it → come → official
There should also be an update on the Canada Strong Fund, the country's first national sovereign wealth fund that Carney announced last April.
asserted
Carney → announce → that
"The budget has three pillars," said the official, who is familiar with the budget but is not authorized to speak publicly about it.
asserted
who → have → it
"Investing in the people, the identity and the growth of Canada."
Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne unveiled the title and cover of the budget on social media last week.
"Masters of Our Destiny" in English and "Maîtres Chez Nous" in French is a slogan from the Quiet Revolution of the 1960s in Quebec and an expression the prime minister often uses in his speeches when referring to Canadian sovereignty and what he believes the country must do to guard and strengthen it.
asserted
country → invest → it
The budget will outline a fiscal plan tightly aligned to Carney's stated priorities for Canada as the country continues to operate under a trade war with the United States and global economic and geopolitical uncertainty.
asserted
country → outline → States
"Investment in our identity and sovereignty includes investing in economic growth, diversification, creating resilience in the economy, but also investing in defence, culture and infrastructure,” the official said.
asserted
official → include → defence
But they said that even though the budget is coming after U.S. midterm elections, it's not in reaction to the midterms.
asserted
it → say → midterms
The source insisted that even with so much of Canada's economy being impacted by President Donald Trump's administration, the budget is "not about the U.S."
asserted
budget → insist → U.S.
Perhaps that is because Canada has been dealing with Trump for 18 months, experts observe.
asserted
experts → deal → months
"Essentially the impact of the U.S.-Canada trade dispute is already kind of baked in," said Theo Argitis, senior vice-president of policy for the Business Council of Canada.
asserted
Argitis → bake → Canada
"I guess one risk is it could get worse, but I think the thing that has surprised a lot of people over the last year is how resilient the Canadian economy has been in the face of this economic shock."
uncertain
economy → guess → shock
Business groups weigh in
Business groups and other stakeholders have high hopes that their pre-budget submissions to the Department of Finance fit those priorities and have resonated with finance officials.
asserted
submissions → weigh → officials
Dan Kelly, president and CEO of the Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB), said he's optimistic that rumours of a small-business focus in the budget are true.
asserted
rumours → say → budget
"We have had more quarters with more businesses leaving their business altogether than new ones starting up.
asserted
ones → have → business
And that almost never happens," he said.
asserted
he → happen → ?
"If we want to have more large companies, it starts with having more small companies."
asserted
it → want → companies
Kelly said there have been numerous supports and programs to help big business through the tariff war with the U.S.
asserted
Kelly → say → U.S.
Now, he said, it's his members' turn.
asserted
it → say → ?
"I don't hold Ottawa to account for the trade war ... but I do hold Ottawa accountable for the fact that while they're suggesting that they're going to provide support to small businesses, that they don’t actually do it.
asserted
they → hold → it
The CFIB wants the government to reduce the small business corporate tax rate from nine per cent to six per cent and raise the threshold of income that applies under the lower rate from $500,000 to $700,000.
asserted
that → want → 700,000
Kelly said he wants Ottawa to lower employment insurance premium rates for smaller employers, and he is proposing a variety of tariff relief programs aimed at small companies.
asserted
he → say → companies
"I'll take a practical, unsexy tax change any day over something that sounds fantastic ... but doesn't deliver," he said.
asserted
he → take → something
The Council of Canadian Innovators (CCI) is also looking for a new tax credit for the technology companies it represents.
asserted
it → look → companies
It's pushing for a qualified small business tax incentive similar to what is available in the U.S., by which founders and investors of Canadian firms can roll over any capital gains they earn into new investments in Canadian companies.
asserted
they → push → companies
"How we're evaluating this budget is how is the government making Canada a better place — not only to do business but also to grow your business here and stay Canadian," Daniel Perry, CCI's director of federal affairs, said, adding that the council felt there was "genuine interest" from the Finance Department to the idea.
asserted
council → evaluate → idea
Perry said tax incentives like the recently announced productivity mega-deduction help businesses that are machinery or equipment-intense, but the measure doesn't assist companies whose growth relies on research and development, people talent and intellectual property.
asserted
growth → say → research
The CCI is also proposing a new startup visa program to bring in foreign entrepreneurial talent, to replace the program paused by the government due to a number of problems.
asserted
CCI → propose → problems
The council believes the new program could provide applicants with a pathway to permanent residency conditional on business performance.
uncertain
program → believe → performance
Carney government introduces mega-deduction tax measure to spur more investment
Inflation rises to 3.1% in September, as fuel prices push higher: StatsCan
asserted
prices → introduce → StatsCan
Many of Carney's plans are aimed at mid-to-long-term economic goals and transformation.
asserted
Many → aim → goals
But the source said the government is cognizant of the need to help vulnerable Canadians in the meantime, which is why there will be new affordability measures in the budget.
asserted
which → say → budget
"We're creating immediate and more medium-term programs to bridge people through this very uncertain time," they said.
asserted
they → create → time
The official would not specify if there would also be extensions of measures already in place, such as the temporary elimination of the excise tax on fuel.
asserted
official → specify → fuel
"The government needs to recognize the pocketbook issues that Canadians are really experiencing today," said Sean Strickland, executive director of Canada's Building Trades Unions, an association of unions in the construction industry representing 500,000 members and 60 different trades.
asserted
Strickland → need → members
"I think they would miss the mark if this budget did not include something that reflects the real, everyday pressures that average Canadians are experiencing trying to make ends meet," he said, adding that this is even more true with inflation rising again.
asserted
inflation → think → that
Cultural institutions may get more funding
uncertain
institutions → get → funding
The senior government source also hinted that some of Canada's cultural institutions — both large and small — could see new funding, which would fit under the "identity" pillar of the budget.
uncertain
which → hint → budget
…and 21 more, not listed.
The Aporia
