Mostly, it’s a missed opportunity, in the worst of economic times.
asserted
it → ’ → times
Technically speaking, this week’s “Fall Economic Statement” from Finance Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy is more of a mini-budget, updating — and downgrading — the numbers in the official budget he released last March.
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he → speak → budget
Practically speaking, it will be overshadowed by the full-fledged federal budget coming Nov. 5.
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it → speak → budget
But pay attention, because Ontario is ground zero in the trade war with America — which means the province is bearing the full force of Donald Trump’s tariff tantrums.
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province → pay → tantrums
Ontario’s economic growth is fizzling anew, while America keeps on chugging.
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America → fizzle → ?
Bethlenfalvy had predicted a modest one per cent increase in GDP for 2026, way back in his March budget, but he’s now cut that in half — to a meagre 0.5 per cent.
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he → predict → cent
Predictions for new housing starts in Ontario have also been revised downwards from 70,300 to barely 65,100 — a drop of 7.4 per cent at the very time Premier Doug Ford has been promising huge increases in supply.
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Ford → revise → supply
By all means, let’s give him credit for his (updated) candour.
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’s → let → candour
No, the fault lies not with the numbers, but the pretensions underpinning them.
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fault → lie → them
Running throughout the presentation are boasts of “prudent fiscal management,” “sound fiscal management” and “responsible fiscal stewardship.”
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boasts → run → management
You have to read the fine print to find a quiet admission of the “deterioration” in the budgetary outlook thanks to a persistent deficit that has bounced back up to $16.9 billion.
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that → have → billion
Bethlenfalvy is doing the best he can with what he has to work with — and who he has to work for.
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he → do → who
He has endured as Ford’s treasurer, where others have faltered and failed before him, because he knows how to bend and borrow with the winds — both fiscal and political.
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he → endure → winds
A seasoned Bay Street hand, Bethlenfalvy can’t even begin to balance a budget while also juggling a politically irrepressible and fiscally irresponsible premier.
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Bethlenfalvy → begin → premier
To be clear, there’s nothing wrong — and everything right — with deficit spending in an economic emergency, which this trade war urgently qualifies as.
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war → ’ → which
Vulnerable industries merit protection from Trump’s impulses, just as vulnerable people also deserve protection in an economic downturn.
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people → merit → downturn
As Bethlenfalvy told the TMU Democracy Forum that I hosted just before his March budget: “A finance minister has one hand on his or her wallet, to be sure, but make no mistake — in this country, a finance minister … has his or her hand on their heart as well.
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minister → tell → heart
You’ve got to balance the two.
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You → get → two
The good part of this mini-budget is that Ford’s government has seen the light, notwithstanding its right-wing instincts — allocating big money where and when it’s needed.
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it → see → money
Ford has just announced Queen’s Park will chip in alongside Ottawa with billions to support the ailing steel, auto and mining sectors.
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Park → announce → sectors
And he keeps reannouncing that $30 billion is available (albeit unspent) in other tariff relief.
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billion → keep → relief
The premier’s obsession with digging himself into a deeper fiscal hole with his proposed “401 tunnel expressway” remains a road to nowhere — promoted again in the budget, but pointedly ignored by Ottawa as it scours the country for worthy national projects to ramp up.
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it → dig → projects
That said, the Ring of Fire (which has headlined provincial budgets since 2010) is finally gaining traction — and recognition from the federal government, which is matching Ontario with $1 billion in fresh funding.
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which → say → funding
There are generous tax writeoffs to encourage corporate investment in new equipment at a time when Ontario must retool.
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Ontario → be → time
Behold, too, the Tory heresy of “Ontario’s first-ever defence industrial strategy” — you read that right, industrial strategy.
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you → behold → that
But for all the sensible talk of strategy, Bethlenfalvy is burdened by bad tactics on taxes and subsidies that have undermined Ontario’s budgetary posture.
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that → burden → posture
“It starts with cutting taxes,” the finance minister argues, but it has to end somewhere.
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it → start → taxes
Case in point: Ford has presided over an overly generous electricity subsidy ever since taking power in 2018 (after his Tories goaded the last Liberal government into this misallocation of provincial tax revenues for the benefit of individual ratepayers).
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Tories → preside → ratepayers
Now, as the recurring rebate approaches $7 billion a year, Bethlenfalvy has capped it for Ontario’s most sprawling homes — the new limit will be 1,200 kilowatt-hours (average consumption is barely 60 per cent of that) in order to “ensure sustainability” amid the unreality of this electricity subsidy.
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consumption → recur → subsidy
By indulging in perennial pre-election giveaways — cuts to gasoline taxes, licence plate renewal fees, road tolls and more — Ford plundered the province’s fiscal capacity in good times instead of keeping those revenues in reserve for a rainy day.
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Ford → indulge → day
That has reduced Bethlenfalvy’s margin of manoeuvre by billions of dollars.
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That → reduce → dollars
Now, at a time of growing inflation, rising interest rates, persistent unemployment and a protracted trade war, Ontario needs to pack the biggest possible punch.
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Ontario → grow → punch
Too bad Ford squandered those fiscal tools prematurely — putting his personal re-election over our economic recovery when it matters most.
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it → squander → recovery
The Aporia
