“The Almighty has His own purposes.”
asserted
Almighty → have → purposes
It’s as if, before getting to his weighty remarks about morality and history, Lincoln wants to remind us that politics is also an arena of power and action:
asserted
politics → ’ → power
Now, at the expiration of four years, during which public declarations have been constantly called forth on every point and phase of the great contest which still absorbs the attention and engrosses the energies of the nation, little that is new could be presented.
uncertain
that → call → nation
The progress of our arms, upon which all else chiefly depends, is as well known to the public as to myself, and it is, I trust, reasonably satisfactory and encouraging to all.
asserted
I → depend → all
With high hope for the future, no prediction in regard to it is ventured.
asserted
prediction → venture → it
Right now, I’m in sync with that matter-of-fact Lincoln.
asserted
I → ’m → Lincoln
At the expiration of years “during which public declarations have been constantly called forth on every point and phase of the great contest which still absorbs the attention and engrosses the energies of the nation,” I too suspect—at least for now, at least for today—that there’s little new to say.
asserted
I → call → today
I also think that is “the progress of our arms”—in our case, the casting of our votes—“upon which all else chiefly depends.”
asserted
else → think → ?
The talking is done; the voting is what matters.
asserted
what → do → ?
And I also follow Lincoln in believing that the prospects in November 2026, as they were in March 1865, are “reasonably satisfactory and encouraging.”
asserted
they → follow → March
That is not something we could have taken for granted.
uncertain
we → take → ?
On key occasions over the last decade, we’ve fallen short.
asserted
we → fall → decade
In 2018, Democrats picked up forty-one seats and flipped the House—but Republicans gained two senate seats and strengthened their hold on that body.
asserted
Republicans → pick → body
In 2020, Trump was defeated, but not in a landslide, and Republicans gained thirteen House seats.
asserted
Republicans → defeat → seats
Then, following the insurrection and Trump’s impeachment, the Senate failed to convict him.
asserted
Senate → follow → him
And while Democrats did relatively well in the 2022 midterms, Republicans still managed to regain the House.
asserted
Republicans → do → House
In other words: Since Trump entered national politics in 2015, there’s never been a decisive electoral repudiation of him.
asserted
Trump → enter → him
This year looks likely to be that.
asserted
year → look → ?
Now I’ll hasten to stipulate that 2026 is only a midterm election, and that presidential elections matter most.
asserted
elections → hasten → ?
Think of what it would mean for our future if Trump had remained popular over the last two years, if his policies were viewed with relative approval, and if he were about to suffer only a minor midterm setback.
asserted
he → think → setback
Instead, 2026 looks as if it will be a clear repudiation of Trump and Trumpism.
asserted
it → look → Trump
Democrats are very likely to flip both the House and the Senate and, indeed, are likely to end up with comfortable majorities in both chambers.
asserted
Democrats → flip → chambers
For example, the final New York Times/Siena polls released last night of seven battleground Senate states—Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas—show Democrats ahead in six of those races, and effectively tied in the seventh.
asserted
Democrats → release → seventh
As the Times notes with some astonishment, Democrats hold sizable leads in Texas, which has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1988, and Kansas, which has not elected one since 1932.
asserted
which → note → 1932
As Nate Cohn put it: “In today’s polarized era, there’s no precedent for a party to fare this well in so many states that are generally safe wins for the other side.”
asserted
that → put → side
He cautions judiciously that the polls may be overstating Democratic strength.
uncertain
polls → caution → strength
But as he also explains at some length, they may well be understating it.
uncertain
they → explain → it
In any case, lots of polling suggests that not only these seven states but several others are very much within reach for Democrats.
uncertain
states → suggest → Democrats
More than 50 million early votes have already been cast, and they seem in accord with the polls about the direction and magnitude of the election.
asserted
they → cast → election
What’s more, it’s not just the Senate and the House.
asserted
it → ’ → ?
Democrats are favored to win the governor’s race in Ohio, and Texas, Georgia, and Florida are tossups.
asserted
Texas → favor → Ohio
If they win all three of those, Democrats would hold the governorship in all fourteen of our largest states.
asserted
Democrats → win → states
But even if Democrats pick up only Ohio, they’ll have eleven of the fourteen.
asserted
they → pick → fourteen
Combine that with control of the House and the Senate, and Trumpism no longer seems like a safe bet to shape our future.
asserted
Trumpism → combine → future
It doesn’t even seem to be a likely bet to do so.
asserted
It → seem → ?
So this midterm election matters a lot.
asserted
election → matter → ?
As I write, at 6:00 a.m. Monday morning, with dawn breaking here in Virginia (thank you, standard time!), we have thirty-six more hours to go before the polls close.
asserted
polls → write → hours
Tens of millions of Americans still have to vote.
asserted
millions → have → Americans
On those votes, everything still hinges.
asserted
everything → hinge → votes
I’m not usually big on exhortations.
asserted
I → ’m → exhortations
…and 89 more, not listed.
The Aporia
