Political advertising spending and reservations have now exceeded $11.6 billion, making this the most expensive election cycle for political advertising in American history.
asserted
this → exceed → history
For that kind of money, you'd think somebody might have figured out how to make groceries cheaper.
uncertain
groceries → think → money
Instead, Americans have endured months of attack ads, apocalyptic warnings and politicians insisting that civilization itself is on the ballot.
asserted
civilization → endure → ballot
As a researcher, I've spent much of this year studying what Americans believe, what frustrates them and, perhaps most importantly, what might motivate them to vote.
uncertain
what → spend → them
And I've become convinced that five words explain this election better than a thousand campaign commercials.
asserted
words → become → commercials
Each tells us something about the American electorate.
asserted
Each → tell → electorate
Together, they reveal something neither party should find particularly comforting.
asserted
party → reveal → something
Americans may be less interested in voting for somebody than in voting against something.
uncertain
Americans → vote → something
And the two parties are betting on very different fears.
asserted
parties → bet → fears
AFFORDABILITY
Washington has a remarkable talent for telling Americans how well they're doing while Americans are busy wondering how they're going to pay for everything.
asserted
they → have → everything
Inflation is cooling!
asserted
Inflation → cool → ?
The stock market is booming!
asserted
market → boom → ?
Now explain why a family of four needs a financing plan to buy groceries and a second job to take everyone to Disney World.
asserted
family → explain → World
Here's what politicians keep missing: Americans don't experience the economy as a collection of statistics.
asserted
Americans → keep → statistics
They experience it as a series of small humiliations.
asserted
They → experience → humiliations
Putting something back on the grocery shelf. Declining a dinner invitation. Explaining to your child why the family vacation will have to wait another year.
asserted
vacation → put → child
The economy isn't what Washington says is happening.
asserted
Washington → say → ?
It's what Americans can afford to do.
asserted
Americans → afford → what
Republicans have spent much of this campaign telling voters that things are getting better.
asserted
things → spend → voters
Democrats have spent it reminding them how expensive everything remains.
asserted
everything → spend → them
The Democrats have the easier argument.
asserted
Democrats → have → argument
Convincing voters that Republicans haven't made their lives better is not the same as convincing them that Democrats will.
asserted
Democrats → convince → them
One requires an attack ad.
asserted
One → require → ad
The other requires an actual plan.
asserted
other → require → plan
For years, Republicans have warned that Democrats are taking America toward socialism.
asserted
Democrats → warn → socialism
The accusation has been deployed so enthusiastically that you'd think Karl Marx was running for Congress in every competitive district.
asserted
Marx → deploy → district
Democrats often dismiss it as tired political fearmongering.
asserted
Democrats → dismiss → fearmongering
They may be making a serious mistake.
uncertain
They → make → mistake
In polling I've been examining, the share of Republicans energized to vote against socialism has climbed from 50% to 59% in just a month.
asserted
share → examine → month
Think about what that means.
asserted
that → think → what
Republicans can be disappointed in their candidates, frustrated with the economy and unhappy with their party's performance while remaining extraordinarily motivated to vote.
asserted
Republicans → remain → performance
Because they may believe the alternative is worse.
uncertain
alternative → believe → ?
Disappointment makes people complain.
asserted
people → make → ?
Fear makes them act.
asserted
them → make → ?
Democrats see socialism as an outdated Republican talking point.
asserted
Democrats → see → point
Many Republicans see it as a threat to the country they love.
asserted
they → see → country
That doesn't mean Republicans are necessarily happy with their own party.
asserted
Republicans → mean → party
It means they may be willing to vote for a party they don't particularly like to stop one they fear even more.
And that's a potentially powerful turnout strategy hiding in plain sight.
uncertain
that → mean → sight
CORRUPTION
Remember when draining the swamp was a campaign promise?
asserted
draining → remember → swamp
Apparently, the swamp has become a bipartisan swimming pool.
asserted
swamp → become → ?
…and 56 more, not listed.
The Aporia
