Election cycle has featured 'relentless rise of the mega donor,' political science prof says
The 2026 U.S. midterm elections are shaping up to be the most expensive elections in the country's history.
This election cycle will reach $11.6 billion US in spending, according to AdImpact, an advertising intelligence company that analyzes political advertising.
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that → feature → advertising
That would surpass the midterm record set in 2022 at $8.9 billion US and the $11.2 billion US spent during the 2024 presidential cycle.
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That → surpass → cycle
To put things in a Canadian context, Liberal and Conservative parties in total raised $95 million US in 2024 and 2025, per Elections Canada.
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parties → put → Canada
Meanwhile, Texas Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico alone is projected to have raised $146 million U.S.
Indeed, combined ad spending in the Senate race between Talarico and Ken Paxton, the state's Republican attorney general, has topped $500 million US, according to ad-tracking data — on pace to become the most expensive U.S. Senate contest ever.
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spending → project → pace
Just how much will campaign money play a role in determining who wins?
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who → play → role
As with everything, costs have gone up, making election-related expenses, primarily advertising, higher than in previous campaigns.
But since the 2010 U.S. Supreme Court's Citizens United decision opened the door to unlimited independent spending in federal elections, spending has increased exponentially.
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spending → go → elections
Jen Heerwig, an associate professor of sociology at Stony Brook University who researches the political contributions of American corporate elites, said there are a number of highly competitive midterm races in which outside groups have stepped in to supplement candidate spending.
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groups → research → spending
That means groups like super PACs (political action committees) have become increasingly important vehicles for election spending, she said.
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she → mean → spending
Super PACs, unlike traditional candidate committees or regular PACs, can accept donations of unlimited size, Heerwig said, such as the hundreds of millions Elon Musk is pouring intoRepublican-aligned super PACs.
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Musk → accept → PACs
"And now we're seeing these groups spend alongside candidate campaigns in record-shattering amounts."
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groups → see → amounts
The "relentless rise of the mega donor" is one of the main stories of these midterm elections, said Henrik Schatzinger, a political science professor and director of the the Center for Politics and the People at Wisconsin-based Ripon College.
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Schatzinger → say → College
In 2014, to be one of the Top 40 donors, one would have to have contributed at least $2.3 million US as an individual, Schatzinger said,
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Schatzinger → have → individual
In this election, he said, one would have to spend at least $25 million US.
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one → say → US
Which party is raising the most money?
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party → raise → money
When it comes to money raised by individual candidates in the House and Senate races, Democratic candidates are far outraising their Republican political opponents.
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candidates → come → opponents
That's money that goes specifically to the candidate that they can control.
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they → go → that
According to the U.S. Federal Election Commission, Democratic candidates have raised more than $906 million US for these midterms.
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candidates → accord → midterms
Republican candidates lag behind with more than $420 million US raised.
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US → lag → ?
Of the money raised by Senate candidates, the Top 10 were all Democratic contenders.
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Top → raise → candidates
And across the 10 battleground Senate races, the Democratic campaigns raised more than five times as much as the Republican ones, according to Politico.
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campaigns → raise → Politico
While Republicans lag in candidate donations, they have a significant advantage when it come to money from outside groups like super PACs.
Republican-leaning donors gave $1.7 billion US, compared with $832 million US from Democratic-leaning givers, per Washington Post calculations.
In Texas, for example, groups backing Paxton have spent about $239 million US, more than five times the money spent by the largest Democratic-aligned groups, Reuters reported.
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Reuters → lag → groups
Four of the five top donors were Republican, the Post found, with the largest individual political donor being Musk, pouring in $446 million US of his own money.
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donor → find → money
The largest individual political donor has been Elon Musk, pouring $446 million US of his own money into the 2026 midterms.
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donor → pour → midterms
"The Republicans are kind of the party of billionaires and the Democrats are the party of millionaires," said Alex Keena, associate professor of political science at Virginia Commonwealth University, in Richmond, Va., who researches campaign financing.
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who → say → financing
"That's the state of American politics right now."
Does that give Republicans an advantage?
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that → give → advantage
Even though outside groups are giving Republicans the fundraising edge, that won't necessarily translate to votes, say some observers.
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observers → give → votes
Heerwig said she's skeptical that super PAC spending will be as effective as candidate spending.
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spending → say → spending
And the amount Democratic candidates are raising from individual donors, compared to Republicans suggests far more grassroots enthusiasm for the Democrats.
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candidates → raise → Democrats
"At the end of the day, there are only a handful of billionaires who will cast ballots but millions of small-dollar donors," Heerwig said.
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Heerwig → be → donors
Schatzinger echoed that this election shows there's more energy among the small donor Democrat base than there is among the Republican base.
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election → echo → base
"I think that's probably a better indicator of where this election is headed as opposed to just looking at a couple of mega donors who are putting in hundreds of millions of dollars."
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who → think → dollars
Is this money well spent?
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money → spend → ?
According to AdImpact, broadcast television remains the dominant force in political advertising, with an estimated $5.6 billion US being spent by the campaigns.
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US → accord → campaigns
Digital spending across Facebook, Google, Snapchat and X is estimated to be around $1.6 billion US.
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X → estimate → Facebook
But Keena, the academic who researches campaign financing, questioned how much any of this spending will make a difference.
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any → research → difference
My read of the evidence is that it's not really going to affect the outcome of the race."
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it → go → race
In Texas, Republicans have poured millions into negative ads against Talarico.
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Republicans → pour → Talarico
Yet polls suggest the race remains extremely tight — Talarico possibly has a small lead in a state that hasn't had a Democratic senator in more than 30 years.
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that → suggest → years
These midterm races will decide who controls U.S. Congress for the rest of Trump's presidency
The Democrats are surging as the U.S. midterms near.
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midterms → decide → presidency
Here's the data that has Trump's Republicans spooked
Keena questioned how many voters are being reached by broadcast TV commercials.
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voters → have → commercials
…and 11 more, not listed.
The Aporia
