Economic frustration set to boil over in midterm elections
Consumer sentiment hits all-time low as Americans head to the polls
American voters are headed to the polls for the U.S. midterms this week.
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voters → set → midterms
Most are angry and frustrated about the state of the economy and the way Donald Trump has managed it.
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Trump → frustrate → it
If you want evidence of that dissatisfaction look no further than the University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment.
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you → want → Sentiment
It shows consumer confidence is plummetting under Trump.
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confidence → show → Trump
"Only three times since the 1970s have more than half of Americans said their government's doing bad job managing the economy.
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government → say → economy
Right now it's at 74 per cent," said Kathryn Anne Edwards, a labour economist and policy consultant in Houston.
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Edwards → say → Houston
The index gauges consumer sentiment.
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index → gauge → sentiment
And she says that survey is one of the biggest and longest standing bodies of economic data in the country.
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survey → say → country
It's been going on since the 1940s.
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It → go → 1940s
Edwards says these kinds of numbers show that on some fundamental level, the U.S. economy is failing American households.
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economy → say → households
It's really hard to put into words," said Edwards.
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Edwards → put → words
Those kind of plunges in consumer sentiment historically only happen in the deepest and darkest days of a recession.
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kind → happen → recession
The latest GDP numbers out of Washington show the U.S. economy is the fastest growing economy in the Western world.
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economy → show → world
American GDP expanded by 3.8 per cent in the quarter running from July to September.
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GDP → expand → September
Investment in AI continues to churn ever higher.
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Investment → continue → AI
"GDP is growing above trend, consumer spending remains robust, layoffs trudge along at ultra-low levels, and we've seen a stable unemployment rate over the past year," wrote RBC's team of economists Mike Reid, Carrie Freestone and Imri Haggin.
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team → grow → economists
"For many voters, the economy is now synonymous with inflation, as rising prices outweigh job reports, housing affordability and stock market performance," wrote Francis Généreux, lead economist at Desjardins Group in a note to clients.
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Généreux → rise → clients
And those rising prices have been driven by two main things; tariffs and the U.S.-led war with Iran.
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prices → rise → Iran
Gas prices shot up the day the war began.
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war → shoot → ?
They have bounced around a little as talk of various ceasefires and deals come and go, but American drivers are paying far more at the pumps today than they were a year ago.
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they → bounce → pumps
And gasoline prices are posted everywhere as drivers and pedestrians alike move through a neighbourhood.
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drivers → post → neighbourhood
So even if you ride a bicycle to work, the increase in prices is incredibly hard to ignore.
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increase → ride → prices
Inflation in the U.S. has ticked up to 3.7 per cent, and economists warn it's not done climbing yet.
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it → tick → cent
But tariffs have contributed as well.
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tariffs → contribute → ?
A recent report from the New York Federal Reserve found the cost of many everyday items would have declined last year were it not for Trump's tariffs.
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it → find → tariffs
Researchers looked at the 12-month change in consumer goods prices going back to the peak of the COVID-era surge in inflation.
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Researchers → look → inflation
They showed price growth was still falling in 2024 and reversed in 2025.
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growth → show → 2025
"Our estimates attribute this increase to the tariffs: by February 2026, tariffs had contributed 2.9 percentage points to goods price inflation, and without them goods prices would have fallen slightly," wrote Mary Amiti, Sebastian Heise and David E. Weinstein.
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Amiti → attribute → them
And Edwards says voters have followed the Trump administration's policy decisions and how they drive prices.
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they → say → prices
She says there are two sharp drops in the consumer sentiment index.
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She → say → index
One when tariffs were introduced and the other when the war with Iran began.
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war → introduce → Iran
"Americans get it.
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Americans → get → it
Tariffs have made their lives more expensive," she said.
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she → make → ?
And Americans will take that knowledge into the polling booth this week.
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Americans → take → booth
If the polls hold, the midterms could lead to sweeping changes in the formation of Congress and who holds power on Capitol Hill.
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who → hold → Hill
But whether those newly elected Senate and House members actually take action to lower tariffs for Canadians is a different question altogether.
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take → elect → Canadians
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