Fabricated political polling has forced its way into the spotlight during the midterm election period in the United States.
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polling → force → States
Revelations that a small number of fraudulent firms have released fictitious results – some of which were picked up by news outlets and polling trackers – have raised concerns about how easily false information can acquire credibility.
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information → release → credibility
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administration → say → results
Those datasets can be used to cast doubt on the electoral process.
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datasets → use → process
And when bad actors are unmasked, their existence can be leveraged to undermine voter confidence in election information overall.
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existence → unmask → information
The latest example occurred earlier this month, when Wedgewood Polls released a statement on social media admitting its statistics about a bevy of battleground states – like Texas, Ohio, Michigan, Kansas and Maine – were fake.
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statistics → occur → Texas
Wedgewood described its work as “an experimental project” designed to highlight the “vulnerabilities, lack of oversight and overall low barrier to entry” in the US polling industry.
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Wedgewood → describe → industry
“Having previously worked in the polling and research sector, we watched as the public’s trust in polling eroded alongside a rise in unverified, low-quality methodology,” the firm said in a statement posted to its social media account, which has now been deleted.
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which → work → account
It justified its false data as a test to see how easy it would be for fabricated polling to gain traction among voters and the media.
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polling → justify → voters
“The short answer: Far too easy,” Wedgewood said.
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Wedgewood → say → ?
But Wedgewood’s admission came after its surveys had already circulated through the political information ecosystem, reaching prominent media outlets like The New York Times.
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surveys → come → Times
The incident was the second such scandal in the 2026 election cycle, following the exposure of another operation, Median Strategies, which acknowledged in August it had also faked results as a “short-term social experiment”.
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it → follow → experiment
In an increasingly polarised US political environment, the incidents have roiled a polling industry – and a public – struggling to adapt to an ever-changing information landscape.
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incidents → roil → landscape
How fake polls gained credibility
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polls → gain → credibility
Wedgewood, which launched in June, published surveys covering competitive races across several states.
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which → launch → states
Its results attracted attention from political campaigns, commentators and organisations that compile polling data.
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that → attract → data
The New York Times said its polling tracker had listed 15 Wedgewood surveys between June and October.
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tracker → say → June
The newspaper subsequently removed them.
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newspaper → remove → them
In the wake of the scandal, it explained that the firm had answered questions about its personnel, methodology and funding before its results were included.
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results → explain → personnel
While the Times said Wedgewood’s surveys were not incorporated into the newspaper’s own presidential approval or national congressional polling averages, the case revealed a vulnerability in the process by which polling information becomes established as credible.
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information → say → which
Polling aggregators help journalists and voters make sense of a crowded field of surveys by collecting results from multiple research organisations.
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journalists → help → organisations
Their value depends partly on their ability to distinguish reliable research from poorly conducted or fraudulent work.
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value → depend → work
Wedgewood’s success in passing some of those checks suggests that transparency on paper is not necessarily proof that research has been conducted as claimed.
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research → pass → paper
According to FiftyPlusOne, a polling and forecasting website that investigated the firm, inconsistencies in the raw data and the technical identifiers associated with survey responses helped raise suspicions about its authenticity.
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inconsistencies → accord → authenticity
The investigation prompted Wedgewood to acknowledge that most of its results were fabricated.
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most → prompt → results
Though Wedgewood has denied trying to mislead the public, some pollsters are not convinced, suggesting the group could was up to something more nefarious.
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group → deny → something
“We were investigating Wedgewood for faking their data,” said data journalist G Elliott Morris, who was involved in FiftyPlusOne’s probe.
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who → investigate → probe
“They are trying to cover up for their fraud with the ‘we were doing a social experiment’ excuse.”
How fake polling has impacted elections
The consequences of fake polling extend far beyond the polling industry.
Mallory McMorrow, who ran unsuccessfully in Michigan’s Democratic Senate primary, has argued that a Wedgewood survey showing her support in the single digits damaged her campaign.
McMorrow said the poll left her volunteers demoralised, and journalists repeatedly contacted her to ask whether she should abandon the race.
Donations, she added, also evaporated, with Democratic supporters looking to other campaigns to invest.
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supporters → try → campaigns
In a social media post, McMorrow described the poll from Wedgewood – and another from the firm Mitchell Research and Communications – as a “one-two punch” that “killed her campaign”.
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that → describe → campaign
She suspended her Senate bid in July.
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She → suspend → July
“By that point, we took a risk and we spend our money.
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we → take → money
We put our ads up.
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We → put → ads
They were working.
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They → work → ?
But the damage was done.
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damage → do → ?
And I was drowned out by outside spending and the narrative that we had completely collapsed,” she wrote.
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she → drown → spending
Experts say McMorrow’s account illustrates a broader problem: Even when a poll does not accurately measure public opinion, its findings can still influence the decisions of people who believe it does.
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it → say → people
Why it matters
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it → matter → ?
The Wedgewood controversy demonstrates how fraudulent data can become ammunition in an already polarised political environment.
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data → demonstrate → environment
Researchers at the University of Washington’s Center for an Informed Public tracked how discussion of Wedgewood’s admission spread across social media.
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discussion → track → media
Initially, much of the conversation was concentrated among polling experts and people who followed election data.
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who → concentrate → data
…and 28 more, not listed.
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