Proposing a non-aggression pact amid regional hostilities may seem premature.
uncertain
Proposing → propose → hostilities
Yet agreements to stop war matter most when distrust is the deepest.
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distrust → stop → war
The key question is whether regional governments can agree on rules that make their disagreements less destructive.
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disagreements → agree → rules
In a recent lecture at Cambridge University in the UK, Oman’s Foreign Minister, Sayyid Badr Albusaidi, called for a non-aggression pact among all eight Gulf littoral states: the six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council along with Iraq and Iran.
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Minister → call → Iraq
He described it as the essential prerequisite for an inclusive regional security architecture.
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He → describe → architecture
Could such a pact work?
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pact → work → ?
As Albusaidi conceded, it would be hard to achieve.
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it → concede → ?
But as another major escalation looms between Iran and the United States, the region urgently needs a diplomatic path forward.
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region → loom → path
Indeed, the ongoing conflict has proved so hard to resolve because the region’s security arrangements have remained underdeveloped, relying for too long on external powers.
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arrangements → prove → powers
Reviving the promise of 1976
The Omani proposal is anchored in a historic precedent.
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proposal → revive → precedent
In November 1976, the foreign ministers of all eight Gulf littoral states met in Muscat to pursue collective security after Britain’s withdrawal from the region.
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ministers → meet → region
It remains the only time all eight have sat at one table.
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eight → remain → table
The Iranian Revolution, the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan and the Iran–Iraq war then pushed the region towards defensive arrangements that later hardened into exclusion.
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that → push → exclusion
For decades, Iran, in particular, was seen as a threat to the rest of the region.
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Iran → see → region
Yet, given that the country holds roughly half the Gulf coastline, any security architecture without it is structurally unsound.
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architecture → give → it
It was not until 2019 that the idea of a regional security arrangement was revived.
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idea → revive → arrangement
In May of that year, then Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif proposed a regional non-aggression pact with Gulf neighbours during a visit to Baghdad, which Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov endorsed.
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Lavrov → propose → which
That September, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani launched the Hormuz Peace Endeavour (HOPE) at the UN General Assembly, envisaging a non-aggression pact among Hormuz states.
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Rouhani → launch → states
Gulf reactions were largely dismissive, citing Iranian support for armed groups threatening regional stability.
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reactions → cite → stability
The US-Israeli war on Iran has revived the idea on the Arab side.
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war → revive → side
In May, the Financial Times reported that Saudi Arabia was discussing a non-aggression framework with Iran, reportedly modelled on the Helsinki process between the US and Russia during the Cold War.
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Arabia → report → War
This month, Qatar’s defence minister called for GCC–Iran dialogue, joined by Turkiye and Pakistan, towards a non-aggression agreement.
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minister → call → agreement
Oman’s proposal comes as the latest iteration of this regional shift.
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proposal → come → shift
Muscat is in a unique position to mediate given its history of acting as a mediator and its recent record of hosting US-Iran talks in 2025 and February 2026.
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Muscat → mediate → 2025
It has access that few others have.
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others → have → that
Concluding a pact that works
The strongest objection against a Gulf pact with Iran is simple: Why trust a state whose conduct has threatened the region’s security?
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conduct → conclude → security
Oman itself formally protested to Iran after drone attacks targeting Musandam and Al Wusta in July.
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Oman → protest → July
Inclusion must mean obligation.
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Inclusion → mean → obligation
Membership in a regional pact would have to bind Iran as much as any other signatory, providing a means to constrain threatening behaviour and address legitimate grievances.
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Membership → have → grievances
A pact must rest on observable conduct, reciprocal restraint and consequences for violations.
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pact → rest → violations
At minimum, it would need commitments against the threat or use of force, interference in internal affairs, attacks on civilian infrastructure and support for armed groups conducting cross-border attacks, alongside protection of navigation.
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it → need → navigation
To reach a workable agreement, negotiations can adopt a gradual approach.
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negotiations → reach → approach
Consultations among the eight countries could first identify minimum shared interests: territorial security, functioning ports, reliable energy exports, civilian protection and uninterrupted trade.
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Consultations → identify → interests
Oman can facilitate, but each state would represent itself; Muscat’s channel to Tehran confers no mandate to negotiate for its neighbours.
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channel → facilitate → neighbours
Initial talks should yield limited, reciprocal measures: military hotlines, rules for maritime encounters, notification of exercises and rapid communication after attacks.
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talks → yield → attacks
An understanding about protecting energy facilities, desalination plants and commercial shipping would offer an early test of compliance.
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understanding → protect → compliance
Oman-Iran talks have already outlined a temporary navigation arrangement.
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talks → outline → arrangement
However, as Albusaidi conceded, it cannot be implemented unless Washington and Tehran compromise, including by reversing wartime actions that halted maritime traffic.
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that → concede → traffic
Any wider framework must respect international navigation rights.
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framework → respect → rights
Armed groups would be the hardest issue to resolve.
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groups → resolve → ?
…and 13 more, not listed.
The Aporia
