As Brad Bradford walked off the debate stage at a Scarborough TV studio four days before the Toronto election, the mood on his team was buoyant.
asserted
mood → walk → team
After months of relentless campaigning, their candidate appeared to have momentum behind him.
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candidate → appear → him
Some public polls showed he had closed the gap on Olivia Chow, and the race was now a dead heat.
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race → show → Chow
And while his team had expected the incumbent mayor to try to land a knockout punch in the final debate, hosted by CP24, she went after him, but they didn’t believe she had dealt a decisive blow.
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she → expect → blow
“It felt like months and months of hard work (were paying off),” said Mike Van Soelen, Bradford’s campaign co-chair.
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Soelen → feel → work
“We were feeling good.”
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We → feel → ?
That night would turn out to be the high-water mark of Bradford’s campaign.
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night → turn → campaign
Three days later, on the eve of the election, his team’s optimism was fading.
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optimism → fade → election
By Sunday, pollsters once reporting a Bradford surge were pumping out unanimous results: Chow was ahead.
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Chow → report → results
While Bradford’s team held onto hope, some feared the door to victory had closed.
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door → hold → victory
On election day, the mayor won by a comfortable margin of about 13 percentage points.
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mayor → win → points
Two teams, two stories about the late swing
Like much of what happened during the campaign, the two candidates’ teams disagree on what caused what appeared to be a late swing in the final days — and even whether Bradford was ever within touching distance of a win.
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Bradford → happen → win
Each side says it was the other campaign that leaned harder into negative messaging.
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that → say → messaging
Van Soelen was certain there was a shift, which he described as the result of a “negative onslaught” of online comments and ads that hit Bradford in the 72 hours after the debate.
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that → be → debate
Van Soelen took that as a sign the attacks Chow’s team unleashed in the campaign’s final stages were taking hold.
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team → take → hold
Those attacks accused Bradford of buddying up with a Trump supporter, threatening to close libraries — and even suggested he would pollute children’s drinking water.
uncertain
he → accuse → water
Chow’s camp “went decidedly negative” and beat Bradford in the final days, Van Soelen said.
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Soelen → go → days
“It came so fast and furious …
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It → come → ?
But Chow’s team rejects the claim that they went negative.
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they → reject → claim
Instead, they say the campaign had a consistent mix of positive and critical messaging throughout the race.
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campaign → say → race
What changed in the final days, they say, was that voters started paying attention to the election.
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voters → change → election
When they did, they didn’t like what Bradford was offering.
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Bradford → do → what
“Nothing actually changed in the last 10 days of the campaign.
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Nothing → change → campaign
There was never a period where Brad’s campaign had successfully narrowed the gap to the point where they were going to win on election day,” said Karla Webber-Gallagher, Chow’s campaign manager.
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Gallagher → be → day
“As people got to know him, his unfavourables went way up and his favourables started to slide.”
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favourables → get → him
Chow’s closing pitch: hope and a water attack
On the Friday before election day, Chow made her closing argument to voters.
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Chow → make → voters
Standing in front of the rental building in St. James Town where she grew up after immigrating from Hong Kong, she recalled how the neighbourhood shaped her principles.
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neighbourhood → stand → principles
“Our city has changed a lot.
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city → change → ?
But in all the important ways, I have not,” Chow said.
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Chow → have → ways
“I’m still the kid from St. James Town who is in awe of our city and loves its people, and who has dedicated herself to helping others, to lifting people up, and listening.
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who → ’m → people
Meanwhile, her campaign had aimed a sharp attack at a central plank of Bradford’s platform.
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campaign → aim → platform
Just over a week out from the Oct. 26 election day, Chow’s campaign started running an ad on Facebook and Instagram that opened with a child getting a glass of water at the family kitchen sink.
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child → start → sink
But as she brings the glass to her lips, there’s something wrong: the water is filthy.
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water → bring → lips
“Our water should never be for sale,” intones a voice-over.
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over → intone → sale
A headline about the deadly Walkerton water disaster flashes on the screen, before the closing tag line: “We can’t trust Brad Bradford with our water.”
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We → flash → water
The ad garnered nearly a million impressions, according to an expert analysis of the Meta ad library, and was the strongest version of an attack Chow had been making for weeks against Bradford’s plan to turn Toronto Water, a city division, into a utility with an independent board, like Toronto Hydro.
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Chow → garner → Hydro
Bradford said the plan would help cut rates and other taxes, offset by debt-financing.
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plan → say → financing
Several legal and government finance experts described it as high risk.
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experts → describe → risk
Why the water plan became a campaign flashpoint
Immediately after Bradford announced the proposal on Sept. 28, Chow criticized the plan and for the next four weeks accused Bradford of wanting to surrender control of Toronto’s water to the province, and open the door to privatizing some of North America’s cleanest drinking water.
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Chow → become → water
Throughout October, the proposal also came under fire from GTA bureaucrats, the union representing workers at treatment plants, which published a legal analysis, and former mayors including David Miller and John Tory.
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which → come → Miller
…and 72 more, not listed.
The Aporia
