Olivia Chow duped the pollsters, fooled the pundits and gave progressives a scare.
asserted
Chow → dupe → scare
How did she do that, exactly?
asserted
she → do → that
Lest we forget, many of her strongest supporters were wringing their hands about all those public opinion polls suggesting her rival Brad Bradford had momentum.
asserted
rival → forget → momentum
They lamented a campaign that failed to tell her story and sell her successes as mayor, remember?
asserted
that → lament → mayor
Just because Chow triumphed in the end doesn’t mean it’s time for triumphalism in the aftermath.
asserted
it → triumph → aftermath
It’s a testament to her enduring brand and winning persona.
asserted
It → ’ → brand
As even Bradford conceded, people think she’s nice.
asserted
she → concede → ?
But all is not nice in Toronto the good, which needs to get better — as Chow knows more than most, notwithstanding her no worries rhetoric.
asserted
Chow → need → rhetoric
It would be a mistake to believe all the polls were wrong, all the time, when they showed Bradford closing in on her. Or when the surveys tapped into an inchoate feeling of insecurity and a nagging sense of malaise.
asserted
surveys → believe → malaise
So how did Chow regain the lead in the end, after possibly losing it for part of the campaign?
uncertain
Chow → regain → campaign
Let me count the four ways.
asserted
me → let → ways
First, she had the incumbency advantage, right?
asserted
she → have → advantage
Sitting in the mayor’s chair didn’t spare Mississauga’s Carolyn Parrish from being unseated, nor did it help former NDP leader Andrea Horwath win re-election in Hamilton.
asserted
Horwath → sit → Hamilton
Incumbency doesn’t inoculate you if you’re ailing; Chow had the advantage of starting with a healthy lead.
asserted
Chow → inoculate → lead
Second, Chow’s campaign had a better ground game.
asserted
campaign → have → game
It’s undeniably true that she got out her vote, in a way that B.C. New Democrats didn’t last weekend.
asserted
Democrats → ’ → way
Chow won more than 532,000 votes — besting any previous mayoral ballot count.
asserted
Chow → win → count
But the 404,013 votes cast for Bradford would have been enough to make him mayor in many previous races (notably in 2023) if not for Chow’s strength this time.
asserted
him → cast → strength
It would be a mistake to discount his vote count.
asserted
It → discount → count
Third, Chow ran hard because she was running scared — hence the scaremongering in the final stages of the campaign.
asserted
she → run → campaign
Many in the campaign cast Bradford as a tough character, but Chow is no slouch in the heat of battle.
asserted
Chow → cast → battle
For all the soaring rhetoric about “hope over fear,” the Chow campaign tried to sow the fear of God into voters with overheated rhetoric about supposedly ”privatizing” Toronto’s water supply.
asserted
campaign → soar → supply
Legally impossible, but that’s politics.
asserted
that → ’ → ?
Fourth, the so-called contrasts between Chow and Bradford weren’t all that sharp.
asserted
contrasts → call → Chow
For all the demonization of Bradford as a right-wing bogeyman, and all the hagiography of Chow as a left-wing saint, the two aren’t as different as their campaigns pretend.
asserted
campaigns → pretend → saint
One candidate was endorsed by the police union and Doug Ford (read between the lines), and relied on longtime Liberal campaign manager Andrew Bevan to helm her campaign.
asserted
candidate → endorse → campaign
That would be the bicycle-riding Chow.
asserted
That → rid → ?
Another candidate was endorsed by Gil Penalosa (darling of the progressives when he ran against John Tory in 2022), was backed by Chow’s former deputy mayor Jennifer McKelvie and many other centrist Liberal MPs and MPPs, and was helped by Liberal campaign co-chair (Genevieve Tomney) plus high-profile pollster David Coletto (president of Abacus Data, whose polling appears regularly in the Star).
asserted
polling → endorse → Star
That would be the bicycle-riding Bradford.
asserted
That → rid → ?
True, Bradford tried to recast himself as a right-of-centre candidate aligned with many of Ford’s provincial policies.
asserted
Bradford → try → policies
To be sure, Chow tried to reframe herself as a foe of Ford, despite having worked hand in hand with him on uploading while pulling her punches on Ontario Place.
asserted
Chow → try → Place
Bradford pledged to freeze property taxes (hey, it worked for Alvin Tedjo in Mississauga, a favourite of progressives).
asserted
it → pledge → progressives
He also vowed to add 1,000 more cops (never mind defunding, he’s rehiring).
asserted
he → vow → cops
And he promised a line-by-line audit to find Chow’s buried blunders.
asserted
he → promise → blunders
In fairness, Chow inherited a budget shortfall of nearly $2 billion when she took office.
asserted
she → inherit → office
Yet she presided over a credit upgrade for the city on the strength of her brave property tax hikes (see Alvin Tedjo, above) and bold rapprochement with the premier.
asserted
she → preside → premier
The mayor and her NDP allies were wise enough, over time, to rein in some of their excesses and cut their losses.
asserted
mayor → rein → losses
After the fiasco of renaming Yonge-Dundas Square (now officially — if rarely — called Sankofa Square), the left abruptly distanced itself from Sankofa’s steward and chief cheerleader, Chris Moise, who lost his council seat.
asserted
who → rename → seat
When all is said and done and voted, the truth is that Toronto politics isn’t as polarized as some partisans like to pretend — no matter how hard Ford’s Tories tried to divide Torontonians with a wedge over bike lanes.
asserted
Tories → say → lanes
The opinion polls suggested Toronto wanted more change.
uncertain
Toronto → suggest → change
…and 4 more, not listed.
The Aporia
