When the dust cleared Monday night from Toronto’s mayoral election, the results surprised many people.
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results → clear → people
Rather than the near-dead heat envisioned by opinion polls — with a narrative that Mayor Olivia Chow’s lacklustre re-election campaign had squandered its lead to the more energetic Brad Bradford — Chow had scored a thumping victory.
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Chow → envision → victory
Poll-by-poll voting results released Thursday by the City of Toronto help explain how and where Chow, a former NDP MP and proud progressive, beat Bradford, the Beaches—East York city councillor who ran from the political centre-right and lost by 13 points.
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who → release → points
The data tells us:
Where Chow won, and who put her over the top
Chow won 54.2 per cent of the vote, winning 19 of Toronto’s 25 wards.
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Chow → tell → wards
She did best, in order of vote percentage, in Toronto Centre, Toronto—Danforth, Davenport, Parkdale—High Park and Spadina—Fort York.
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She → do → Centre
Crucially, she won all six Scarborough wards and owes the area a debt of gratitude, again, for helping make her mayor.
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she → win → gratitude
Chow won a bigger share of the vote this election, against one prominent challenger, than in 2023, when she took 37.2 per cent of the vote against multiple rivals.
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she → win → rivals
However, rather than conquering new parts of Toronto, she was re
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she → conquer → Toronto
Chow was most successful in neighbourhoods where many people bike, walk or take transit to work.
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people → bike → work
Neighbourhoods with more renters leaned Chow, but the link is much stronger for neighbourhoods where people don’t drive to work.
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people → lean → work
Chow made her biggest gains in Scarborough—Guildwood, Bradford’s home turf of Beaches—East York and Humber River—Black Creek.
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Chow → make → River
She made her smallest gains in York Centre, Scarborough North, Eglinton—Lawrence and Willowdale.
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She → make → Centre
Chow’s share fell in an estimated six of about 1,200 polling areas, all small areas near Bathurst Street.
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share → fall → Street
Where Bradford did well, and where he fell short
Bradford won six of 25 wards, all in Etobicoke and North York.
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Bradford → fall → Etobicoke
Although his home turf is downtown-adjacent, he campaigned heavily in Etobicoke and North York and made campaign pledges that appealed to voters in those communities.
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that → campaign → communities
Neighbourhoods where Bradford did best on election day: Bathurst Manor, Bridle Path-Sunnybrook-York Mills and Bedford Park-Nortown.
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Bradford → do → day
Across Toronto, Bradford’s popularity rose with an area’s preponderance of detached homes.
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popularity → rise → homes
Bradford won 60 of 282 single-building polling areas (condo or apartment towers), including ones in Humber Bay Shores, Etobicoke City Centre, Westminster-Branson and the Bathurst corridor.
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Bradford → win → Shores
Chow, however, dominated the tower vote except in North York, where it split evenly, and in Etobicoke, where it was close.
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it → dominate → Etobicoke
Bradford’s strength in some suburbs could not make up for Scarborough, where he got only 39.9 per cent of the vote to Chow’s 53.4 per cent.
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he → make → cent
Even Scarborough’s detached-house neighbourhoods went clearly Chow, unlike those in Etobicoke and North York.
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neighbourhoods → detach → Etobicoke
Where turnout went up, where it did not and how that shaped the result
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that → go → result
Citywide voter turnout surged from 38.4 per cent in the 2023 byelection to 47.2 per cent.
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turnout → surge → cent
Parkdale—High Park had the highest turnout while Humber River—Black Creek had the lowest.
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River → have → lowest
The boost in turnout did not, on its own, help Chow.
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boost → help → Chow
If voter participation had stayed the same as in 2023, she would have won by about the same margin.
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she → stay → margin
If anything, turnout rose slightly more in Bradford-leaning wards.
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turnout → rise → wards
What did help Chow: her vote share went up in every ward, rich and poor.
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share → help → ward
Chow’s vote total almost doubled, from 269,000 last election, to 532,000.
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total → double → 532,000
South Etobicoke: a changing district
Ward 3 Etobicoke—Lakeshore was narrowly won by Bradford with 49.3 per cent compared to Chow’s 47.1 per cent.
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Ward → change → cent
However, Chow was much more popular than in 2023 when she got only 29.4 per cent of the vote.
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she → get → vote
Between 2016 and 2021, the number of high-rise homes in the ward grew 20 per cent, twice the city’s rate.
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number → grow → ward
Chow’s support was most concentrated in waterfront neighbourhoods, including Mimico, New Toronto and Long Branch.
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support → include → Mimico
She also won the towers near Islington and Kipling stations, 54 to 41 per cent for Bradford.
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She → win → Bradford
Bradford won Etobicoke—Lakeshore only with very strong support from residents of prosperous single-family neighbourhoods including Kingsway South, Alderwood and Stonegate-Queensway.
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Bradford → win → South
The Aporia
