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A Libertarian Perspective on the 2026 Election

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Cite

Somin, I. (2026, October 30). A Libertarian Perspective on the 2026 Election. Reason. https://reason.com/volokh/2026/10/30/a-libertarian-perspective-on-the-2026-election/

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Reason · collected 2026-10-30 · by Ilya Somin

Quick Summary

This piece is an opinion article discussing why libertarians might consider voting for Democrats over Republicans in the 2026 election, unless the Democratic candidate aligns with the Democratic Socialists of America or the Republican candidate opposes Donald Trump’s policies. The author agrees largely with libertarian political philosopher Dan Shapiro's argument but adds personal caveats about supporting the lesser evil among viable candidates. The article critiques former President Trump for inciting violence and undermining democratic norms during his presidency, highlighting violations of the rule of law and human rights abuses under his administration involving issues like immigration and detainee treatment.
Written by AI on 2026-10-31, from this article's own text only (the story summary below draws on all the coverage).

AI analysis

Why this leaning score
The article's own words the score was based on. Each is quoted verbatim and was checked against the article text before being stored, so you can find it in the original.
Reading Leans left (beta estimate) Confidence high 2 quote(s) discarded as not found in the article
Leaning: leans left for article 118630 (high confidence, 1 verified quote) · logged 2026-10-31

Story

📰 2026 Election Perspective
Politics · 1 article(s) covering the same event.

Compared with similar articles

Nothing to compare against. No article is close enough to this one for the pipeline to have linked or judged the pair.
How this article was measured signals, leaning charts, publisher record, byline, topics and claims

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
83
sentences that state something as happening or true
Uncertain
12%
10 of 83 hedged ("reportedly", "may", "according to")
Leaning
Leans left
of the writing, not the subject · beta estimate
Publisher signals
67/100
Reason's corrections and hedging, across everything collected from it. Not a measure of accuracy.
Outlets on this story
1
Politics
Same framing elsewhere
1
articles that frame the event the way this one does
Analyzed 2026-10-31 · how these are computed

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Publisher

Reason · 1039 article(s) · 4 correction(s) detected
Running correction rate · 4 correction(s)

Who wrote this

Ilya Somin
24 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 But I have a few additions and caveats that I will append after quoting a few key passages from Dan's post.
2026-10-30 · assertive framing · A Libertarian Perspective on the 2026 Election
🔮 Some of those who vote for the "wrong" Dan Sullivan might rank the "right" one second.
🔮 It also adopts a properly restrictive definition of "rebellion" (which is one of the conditions that might justify federalization of the National Guard).
🔮 Today, the Trump Justice Department filed a federal lawsuit seeking to block Alaska Senate election results on the grounds they might be influenced by voter "confusion" between incumbent Republican Senator Dan S. Sullivan and a separate Republican candidate with a very similar name (Dan L. Sullivan).
🔮 And I think he actually agrees with me more than the framing of his post might suggest.
2026-10-17 · assertive framing · Who Should Defend Democracy?
🔮 I would like to thank Matt for his interesting and insightful response.
🔮 [I]t seems to me that those who are fully onboard the expansion-or-bust train should have to do more than simply assert that having four new Democratic appointees on the Court in 2029 would be a self-evidently "good" thing.
🔮 The court ruled that federal law does not preempt these policies, and that if if it did, there would be a violation of the anti-commandeering requirements of the Tenth Amendment: Even were the Court to find that the United States has standing and the challenged provisions are preempted—both answered in the negative above—United States' claims would still fail because the anticommandeering doctrine of the Tenth Amendment to the Constitution of the United States precludes relief.
🔮 But some would like to revive it.
2026-10-15 · assertive framing · Fusionism and its Limits
🔮 I wish there was something I could say to ease the continuing pain of the victims of the attack and their families.
Also by Ilya Somin
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 24 articles by Ilya Somin →

Topics

Bleeding Heart Libertarian Dem Democrats GOP Republicans

Subjects

Trump PERSON · 5× Dan PERSON · 4× ICE ORG · 4× Republicans NORP · 2× Bleeding Heart Libertarian ORG · 1× Cersei PERSON · 1× Dan Shapiro PERSON · 1× Dem NORP · 1× Democrats NORP · 1× GOP ORG · 1×

Narrative

Violating the rule of law, shredding due process, torture ICE: masked secret police who kidnap people and send them to hellholes in El Salvador, where they were subject to constant beatings, sexual abuse, and torture; to the Central African Republic, in the midst of a brutal civil war with severe human rights abuses; to Florida's "Alligator Alcatraz," where large numbers of detainees were held in cages the size of phone booths; and to Fort Bliss, Texas, where guards grabbed detainees' testicles while beating them.
framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-10-31
🔮 But I have a few additions and caveats that I will append after quoting a few key passages from Dan's post.
2026-10-31 · Reason
A Libertarian Perspective on the 2026 Election · assertive framing

Claims (83 extracted, 10 hedged)

I was going to write a post about why, in this election, the right thing for libertarians to do is vote for Democrats for all federal offices, unless either 1) the Dem candidate is DSA, or 2) the GOP candidate is one of those very rare Republicans who oppose all or most of Trump's awful policies. asserted
who → go → policies
But libertarian political philosopher Dan Shapiro beat me to it, in an excellent post at the Bleeding Heart Libertarian substack. asserted
Shapiro → beat → substack
I agree with the vast bulk of what he says. asserted
he → agree → what
But I have a few additions and caveats that I will append after quoting a few key passages from Dan's post. asserted
I → have → post
Before getting into detail, I will note that I generally believe in voting for the lesser evil among those candidates with a realistic chance to win. asserted
I → get → chance
Thus, unlike Dan, I don't usually vote for third party candidates, even in more normal times. asserted
I → vote → times
If you're opposed to "lesser evil" voting on principle, we have a disagreement that goes far beyond the present election. asserted
that → oppose → election
But I would urge you to check out my defense of that practice, where I explain why you should even vote for the evil Queen Cersei over the even more evil Sauron, if those are the only available choices. asserted
those → urge → Sauron
I don't expect this post or Dan's will change the outcome of the election. asserted
post → expect → election
But they might still be helpful in thinking through big issues we face in the current political moment. uncertain
we → think → moment
Most of my voting life I voted for the Libertarian Party when they advocated classical liberal/libertarian policies. asserted
they → vote → policies
Now those who care about and prioritize liberty and a free society—however they label themselves—should vote Democratic unless the candidate is a Democratic Socialist…. asserted
candidate → care → Democratic
There's been so much criminality and misdeeds in the Trump administration that it's exhausting to cover it all, but keeping "the land of the free and the home of the brave" means remembering the essentials. asserted
keeping → be → essentials
I provide links when the points I make are not common knowledge and/or might be controversial. uncertain
I → provide → links
Trump is the only presidential candidate in the US who refused to concede that he lost. asserted
he → refuse → US
He told a crowd to "fight like hell," and the mob then stormed the Capitol to try to overturn the results. asserted
mob → tell → results
The House impeached him for "incitement of insurrection," and 57 senators, including seven Republicans, voted to convict—short of the two-thirds required. asserted
senators → impeach → thirds
After his campaign of lies and deception and pressuring election officials to falsify the results failed to overturn the election, he later pardoned all the perpetrators of the violence. asserted
he → pressure → violence
Violating the rule of law, shredding due process, torture ICE: masked secret police who kidnap people and send them to hellholes in El Salvador, where they were subject to constant beatings, sexual abuse, and torture; to the Central African Republic, in the midst of a brutal civil war with severe human rights abuses; to Florida's "Alligator Alcatraz," where large numbers of detainees were held in cages the size of phone booths; and to Fort Bliss, Texas, where guards grabbed detainees' testicles while beating them. asserted
guards → violate → them
There've been zero consequences for this; indeed, Trump says they are "immune." asserted
they → say → this
Not only were the deportations done without any notification to families or lawyers, but ICE has disappeared from databases those they seized so lawyers and families can't find them. asserted
lawyers → do → them
ICE and CBP have rammed people in their cars, dragged the occupants out, and rammed into houses without warrants. asserted
ICE → ram → warrants
They have murdered, wounded, and assaulted protestors and ICE monitors—Alex Pretti and Renee Good, during the ICE occupation of Minneapolis, being the most publicized—but there have been many others. asserted
They → murder → Minneapolis
There is now "expedited removal" for anyone undocumented, which means no hearing before a judge. asserted
which → be → judge
Indeed, Trump fired any immigration judge who disagreed with him or whom he perceived as not being deportation-friendly enough, and replaced the Board of Immigration Appeals, which has denied appeals for almost all deportation orders. asserted
which → fire → orders
The administration removed TPS (temporary protected status) for immigrants fleeing violence and is deporting them to the very countries the State Department has declared unsafe—e.g., Haiti. asserted
Department → remove → countries
ICE apprehended immigrant parents after they dropped their kids off at school (see here, here, and here), as well as apprehending children and toddlers and using them as bait (the Liam Conejo Ramos incident)…. asserted
they → apprehend → bait
Violating the ban on using the military for policing Trump sent Marines to LA, and National Guard troops to Chicago and DC. asserted
Trump → violate → Chicago
This violates a basic norm since the Founding and violates Posse Comitatus, a statute banning the military from policing. asserted
This → violate → military
Assaults on free speech and free assembly Trump and FCC chairman Carr threatened talk shows and networks for dissenting political opinions. asserted
Trump → threaten → opinions
As mentioned, ICE murdered, assaulted, and wounded protestors and ICE monitors. asserted
ICE → mention → protestors
The administration targeted people for their political views and for writing op-eds. asserted
administration → target → eds
Rochester resident David Streever sent a critical email to the director of ICE, and five months later, federal officers tracked his movements and staked out his New York City hotel as he returned from an overseas trip…. asserted
he → send → trip
There is much more, including explanations of why the Democrats (with the notable exception of DSA types) are far less bad than this, despite their considerable flaws. asserted
Democrats → be → flaws
I myself have written about the evils of the DSA here, explaining why they are comparable to MAGA nationalist Republicans. asserted
they → write → Republicans
In addition to the harm individual DSA members might cause if elected to office, it is important to reduce their numbers as much as possible, so as to minimize the chances that socialists could take over the Democratic Party, as MAGA nationalists have done with the GOP. uncertain
nationalists → cause → GOP
I have a few additions to Dan's arguments. asserted
I → have → arguments
First, it is essential consider the enormous scale of Trump's harmful and unjust immigration and trade policies. asserted
it → consider → policies
Even under normal administrations, immigration restrictions threaten the economic and civil liberties of American citizens (to say nothing of those of immigrants themselves) more than any other federal policy. asserted
restrictions → threaten → policy
Trump's vast expansion of exclusion and mass deportation has made things a lot worse. asserted
things → make → exclusion
…and 43 more, not listed.
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