When Paul McKinney, a farmer in northeast Arkansas, thinks of his son’s childhood, he remembers a small boy playing in vast fields.
asserted
he → think → fields
To a child, a flooded rice field is “like a giant, 40-acre swimming pool”, he said.
asserted
he → flood → pool
Recommended Stories
list of 3 items- list 1 of 3All you need to know about US midterms 2026
- list 2 of 3‘Deflections’:
asserted
you → need → midterms
Abdul El-Sayed responds to Trump’s anti-Muslim attacks
- list 3 of 3Tracking the money:
asserted
Sayed → respond → money
Next year, however, the family plans to plant much less.
asserted
family → plan → less
Instead, they will focus on soya, a crop that is cheaper to produce.
asserted
that → focus → soya
Like farmers across the United States, McKinney is making tough decisions this year in response to higher fuel and fertiliser costs, which have skyrocketed since the start of the war on Iran.
asserted
which → make → Iran
This week, farmers also face tough choices at the polls.
asserted
farmers → face → polls
Democrats are expected to make gains in the midterm elections, as voters react to high prices economy-wide by switching parties or staying home.
asserted
voters → expect → parties
Observers are watching farm country closely.
asserted
Observers → watch → country
Texas and Kansas could send Democrats to the Senate for the first time in decades.
uncertain
Texas → send → decades
In the House of Representatives, two majority-rural districts, Wisconsin’s Third and North Carolina First, could become tipping points for Democratic control.
uncertain
districts → become → control
That leaves an uphill battle for Democrat Hallie Shoffner, who quit farming last year to challenge Republican Senator Tom Cotton in a campaign squarely focused on rising costs.
asserted
who → leave → costs
How high costs hurt farmers
asserted
costs → hurt → farmers
Even before the US-Israel war on Iran, high input costs were straining farmers, said Ryan Loy, an extension economist for the University of Arkansas’ Division of Agriculture.
asserted
Loy → strain → Agriculture
Loy pointed to a trade war with China that began in 2018, the ongoing war in Ukraine and disruptions related to the 2025 tariffs as factors driving up input costs and disrupting markets.
asserted
that → point → markets
A drought across the US heartland, made worse by climate change, has added to the strain.
asserted
drought → make → strain
Farmers across the country are working to adapt.
asserted
Farmers → work → country
In Arkansas, many farmers skipped rice in favour of soya.
asserted
farmers → skip → soya
Soya is “the least input-intensive crop, and perhaps can break even or have the shallowest loss”, Loy said.
asserted
Loy → break → loss
Now Arkansas, usually the country’s top rice producer, has its lowest rice acreage since the 1970s.
asserted
Arkansas → have → 1970s
Many farmers hoped 2026 would bring economic recovery so they could return to rice.
uncertain
they → hop → rice
Then, the war on Iran hit.
asserted
war → hit → Iran
With the Strait of Hormuz blocked, fertiliser costs jumped just as farmers were fertilising during the spring planting season.
asserted
farmers → block → season
Loy tracked the increase in a sample budget that he maintains for Arkansas row crop farmers.
asserted
he → track → farmers
“Urea fertiliser specifically peaked about 39 percent over our budgeted amount,” Loy said.
asserted
Loy → peak → amount
Diesel costs came in about 72 percent more than budget averaged across the planting, growing and harvesting seasons, Loy found.
asserted
Loy → come → seasons
Those changes represent a significant economic hit.
asserted
changes → represent → hit
“For our state alone, it’s an additional cost of about $343m,” Loy said.
asserted
Loy → ’ → m
Last week, US President Donald Trump announced an $8bn fuel relief programme for farmers, following $12bn in tariff-related aid in 2025.
asserted
Trump → announce → 2025
If the fuel relief payment were divided equally between the 50 states, it would cover less than half of the extra costs that Loy estimates Arkansas’ farmers paid this year.
asserted
farmers → divide → that
McKinney, a member of the Arkansas Farm Bureau, said the announcement was welcome.
asserted
announcement → say → Bureau
Still, he hoped for longer-term solutions that would prevent “this constant battle for survival”.
asserted
that → hop → survival
For many farms, survival is indeed getting harder.
asserted
survival → get → farms
Farm bankruptcies for the first three quarters of 2026 were up 19 percent compared to this time last year, according to a recent analysis by the University of Arkansas’ National Agricultural Law Center.
uncertain
bankruptcies → compare → Center
They were up 73 percent compared to 2024.
asserted
They → compare → 2024
‘We can’t keep doing this’
McKinney’s son, who grew up playing in muddy rice fields, now helps his dad farm their 24,000 acres.
asserted
dad → keep → acres
So does McKinney’s nephew, who this year is driving a combine.
asserted
who → do → combine
“As has been done for us, we would love to be able to hand that down to the next generation,” said McKinney.
asserted
McKinney → do → generation
“But you also have to think about what is going to be best for them.”
asserted
what → have → them
…and 26 more, not listed.
The Aporia
