Voters in North Carolina will cast their ballots for a new U.S. senator in one of the nation’s most highly scrutinized midterm contests, a race that may lay bare whether an association with President Donald Trump represents a boon or a liability in the current political climate.
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association → cast → climate
To Democrats, the election to determine who will take over the seat held by Sen. Thom Tillis, a Republican who announced his retirement last year after clashing with Trump, is a crucial opportunity to secure an additional seat in the chamber and perhaps even tilt the balance of power in their favor.
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who → determine → favor
Facing off to take over Tillis’s seat are Democrat Roy Cooper, the state’s former governor, and Republican Michael Whatley, the former Republican National Committee chairman who has Trump’s endorsement.
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who → face → endorsement
Republicans in other midterm battleground states have sought to distance themselves from the president as voters grow increasingly concerned about the economy and his approval rating ebbs.
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rating → seek → economy
But Whatley, who Trump personally chose to lead the RNC after he supported the president’s false claims that the 2020 election was stolen, has continued to cast himself as the president’s ally.
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election → choose → ally
And Trump has emphasized their connection while campaigning with Whatley, telling attendees at a September rally in Gastonia, North Carolina, “in this election, I’m asking you to pretend I’m on the ballot just one more time.”
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I → emphasize → ballot
Whatley focused much of his early campaign on crime, claiming that Cooper’s policies as governor weakened public safety in North Carolina, though violent crime has fallen in the state since pandemic-era highs, according to state statistics.
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crime → focus → statistics
Cooper, who served two terms as governor before leaving office in 2025, has largely focused his messaging on the affordability crisis, kicking off his general election campaign in March with the slogan “make stuff cost less.”
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stuff → serve → less
Cooper raised about $49.6 million as of mid-October, dominating Whatley’s $13.7 million.
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Cooper → raise → million
Millions in independent expenditures have poured into the race, though in early October, the Senate Leadership Fund, a major Republican super PAC aligned with Senate Majority Leader John Thune, cancelled millions in advertising planned for North Carolina, signaling the party’s diminishing confidence in Whatley.
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Fund → pour → Whatley
Nevertheless, Cooper will have to buck trends to flip the Senate seat blue.
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Cooper → have → seat
North Carolina has not elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 2008.
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Carolina → elect → 2008
The state has also favored the Republican candidate in every presidential election since 1980, except in 2008 when former President Barack Obama won the state by less than half of 1 percentage point.
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Obama → favor → point
Cooper served two terms as North Carolina’s governor, from 2017 to 2025.
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Cooper → serve → 2025
In the 2016 election, he won the governorship by a razor-thin margin while Trump carried the state by nearly four percentage points.
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Trump → win → points
In 2020, Cooper widened his margin of victory by a few percentage points, and though Trump carried the state over former President Joe Biden, his margin of victory fell to just over 1 percentage point.
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margin → widen → point
To emerge victorious, Cooper would need to replicate his success in gubernatorial races, winning not only North Carolina’s urban centers but also remaining competitive in suburban counties that typically favor Republicans.
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that → emerge → Republicans
Two of North Carolina’s 14 congressional districts will also be watched closely for their potential to affect the balance of power in the U.S. House.
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Two → watch → House
In the 1st District in the northeast corner of the state, Democratic U.S. Rep. Don Davis is in a vulnerable position as he faces a rematch with his 2024 Republican challenger, Laurie Buckhout.
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he → face → challenger
Davis has represented the district since 2023 but is facing an uphill battle to retain his seat after Republicans redrew the district’s boundaries to disadvantage Democrats, shifting a share of Black voters to the neighboring 3rd District.
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Republicans → represent → District
The 11th Congressional District, which is in the western part of the state, features another competitive race.
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which → feature → race
Republican U.S. Rep. Chuck Edwards suspended his reelection campaign in August after the House Ethics Committee recommended he be censured for inappropriate conduct toward two female aides in his office.
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he → suspend → office
State House Rep. Jennifer Balkcom was nominated by a Republican executive committee in the district to run in Edwards’ stead with less than three months until the election.
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Balkcom → nominate → election
Balkcom, who grew up in a farming family and was endorsed by Trump, is competing against Democrat Jamie Ager, a farmer whose grandfather once represented the district.
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grandfather → grow → district
Both candidates have made securing funding for further recovery from Hurricane Helene, which devastated the state in 2024, a priority in their campaigns.
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which → make → campaigns
Here are some of the key facts about the election and data points the AP Decision Team will monitor as the votes are tallied:
When do polls close?
Polls close at 7:30 p.m. ET.
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Polls → monitor → ET
The Associated Press will provide vote results and declare winners in races for U.S. Senate, U.S. House, mayor of Raleigh, statewide ballot measures, state Supreme Court, state Senate, state House and Court of Appeals.
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Press → provide → Appeals
How many people voted in the last midterm election?
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people → vote → election
About 3.7 million votes were cast in the 2022 race for the U.S. Senate in North Carolina.
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votes → cast → Carolina
How much of the vote is cast early or by absentee ballot?
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much → cast → ballot
About 58% of votes in the 2022 race for the U.S. Senate in North Carolina were cast early or by absentee ballot.
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% → cast → ballot
When are early and absentee votes released?
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votes → release → ?
Most North Carolina counties are expected to release all or nearly all the results from mail voting in the first vote updates of the night, before any in-person Election Day results are released.
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results → expect → person
About a third of counties are expected to release the results from early in-person voting in the first vote updates of the night.
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third → expect → night
How long does vote counting usually take?
The first results of the 2024 election were reported starting at 7:35 p.m. ET on Nov. 5, five minutes after polls closed.
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polls → take → Nov.
The state reached 50% of votes reporting at 9:17 p.m. ET, and 90% of votes reporting at 11:36 p.m. ET.
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state → reach → ET
When will the AP declare a winner?
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AP → declare → winner
The Associated Press does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it’s determined there is no scenario that would allow a trailing candidate to close the gap.
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candidate → make → gap
If a race has not been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory.
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AP → call → victory
In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.
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declared → do → winner
…and 3 more, not listed.
The Aporia
