ISRAEL’S ELECTIONS SEEMED TO PROMISE resolution: an answer to what kind of judiciary Israel would have, to how its war with Iran and its proxies would be managed, to what place the ultra-Orthodox and settler extremists have in Israeli society, and to what kind of relationship Israel would have with the United States.
asserted
Israel → seem → States
Instead, the elections seem to have offered more of the same—more logjam, more muddling through, more uncertainty, more frustration.
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elections → seem → same
Israelis don’t receive much sympathy these days.
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Israelis → receive → sympathy
Much of the world is angered by the conduct of Israel’s campaign in Gaza, the violence perpetrated by Israeli extremists in the West Bank, and Israel’s advocacy for the war with Iran that has led to regional and global economic disruptions.
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that → anger → disruptions
But even for those who hold such views, it may be possible to summon some understanding of the frustration many Israeli voters feel after a hard-fought election campaign, which led to only one conclusion: Israeli politics are stuck.
uncertain
politics → hold → conclusion
In the election held this week, a clear majority of voters registered their desire for change.
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majority → hold → change
While counting continues, the parties in Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition, which currently hold 68 seats in the 120-seat Knesset, are set to decline to around 53 seats.
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which → continue → seats
The demand for change is not primarily driven by the issues that grab international headlines, like the war with Iran and the situation in Gaza.
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that → drive → Gaza
As in every country at almost every time, internal considerations dominate: leadership, accountability, burden-sharing, the rule of law.
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considerations → dominate → law
Voters who are demanding change view Netanyahu and his coalition as derelict on all of these measures.
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who → demand → measures
They see in him a divisive, corrupt leader who places his own interests and survival above the nation’s.
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who → see → nation
He has blocked the formation of a state commission of inquiry to establish accountability for the failures ahead of the massive Hamas terrorist attack of October 7th.
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He → block → 7th
He backs the demands of his ultra-Orthodox partners to exempt their communities from military conscription, even as other Israelis have served hundreds of days of reserve duty in the last three years.
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Israelis → back → years
And his government makes minimal effort to crack down on criminality, whether by Jewish extremists attacking Palestinians (and others) in the West Bank or a wave of organized crime killings in Israel’s Arab communities.
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government → make → communities
Those grievances helped consolidate an opposition coalition made up of democracy defenders, good-government right-wingers, survivors of the October 7th attack, those concerned with Israel’s international standing, and Arab citizens
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grievances → consolidate → standing
Gadi Eisenkot, the former chief of staff of the Israel Defense Forces, led an opposition bloc of four parties who agreed on the fundamental requirement of ousting Netanyahu, which netted around 48 seats.
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which → lead → seats
The turnout in the Arab sector set new records, and two Arab parties will likely hold 18–19 seats between them.
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parties → set → them
It is clear that Netanyahu retains support, reflected in the fact that his Likud Party will remain the largest single party in the Knesset, with around 27 seats.
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Party → retain → seats
He has his die-hard supporters, those who see him as an experienced security hand, those who treat voting Likud as a tribal loyalty, believers in a deep state that is trying to railroad him, and young Israelis who have known almost no other leader.
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who → have → leader
Despite the failures of October 7th, some give him credit for Israel’s military achievements afterwards.
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some → give → achievements
In his election-night speech, he recited the list of Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iranian leaders killed by Israel in the past three years.
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he → recite → years
While locking in coalition partners—ultra-Orthodox and far-right parties—with nowhere else to go, he then cannibalized seats from within his own bloc, ensuring that Likud and the bloc as a whole overperformed pre-election polls.
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Likud → lock → polls
Even so, he has no easy path to form a government.
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he → have → government
In Hebrew, they call this a “plonter”: a complete entanglement with no solution.
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they → call → solution
FOR EISENKOT’S OPPOSITION BLOC, there are three options, each worse than the others, each a potential form of political suicide.
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each → be → suicide
They could try to form a minority government, inviting the Arab Ra’am party to join from within, while seeking the passive support of the more hardline Arab Joint List party from without.
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They → try → party
While mathematically possible, it requires overcoming deep mutual suspicion by party leaders like Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Lieberman who oppose relying on Arab parties after October 7th, and the Joint List itself, which defines itself as anti-Zionist and does not call Hamas a terrorist organization.
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which → require → Hamas
Forming such a government would be immensely popular among Europeans, who are important economically and politically for Israel, as well as among American Democrats.
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who → form → Democrats
And it would present the opportunity of passing some measures to safeguard Israeli democracy against the kind of power-concentrating reforms Netanyahu has backed.
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Netanyahu → present → reforms
But any such government would be inherently weak, unstable, and probably short-lived.
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government → live → ?
New elections would almost certainly be held within months, and, as Lieberman has warned, Netanyahu could come roaring back to power.
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Netanyahu → hold → power
The minority government option might have had more appeal if Eisenkot’s bloc had fared better.
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bloc → have → appeal
But as they trail Netanyahu’s bloc, the arrangement’s legitimacy would be widely challenged, even by members of Eisenkot’s Yashar Party.
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legitimacy → trail → Party
Short of forming a minority government, the larger opposition—i.e., all of the parties not in Netanyahu’s bloc—could try to use their majority in the Knesset, which will be seated within two weeks, to advance legislation that fulfills their anti-Netanyahu agenda.
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that → form → agenda
It would require unusual discipline and unified effort among the Jewish and Arab parties.
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It → require → parties
Netanyahu is already trying to discredit the option as illegitimate, including by hurling accusations of foreign (Qatari) vote-buying in Arab towns, which are now under investigation.
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which → try → investigation
This scenario would play out while Netanyahu’s current government continues in its caretaker status, and would really be used by Eisenkot as leverage for better terms in negotiations on a unity government.
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government → play → government
While Netanyahu’s detractors in Israel and Europe may enjoy seeing him challenged in this way, the longer it goes on, complete with court challenges and street protests, the more Israel’s democracy would appear unstable and mired in stalemate.
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democracy → enjoy → stalemate
Alternatively, they could pursue a unity government, agreeing to join a Netanyahu-led coalition.
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they → pursue → coalition
Netanyahu would insist on going first in prime ministerial rotation, and retaining the support of his ultra-Orthodox and far-right partners.
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Netanyahu → insist → partners
…and 28 more, not listed.
The Aporia
