Politics is heating up in the US as the midterm elections draw close.
asserted
elections → heat → US
If you're new to the US political landscape or need a quick refresher, here's a guide to the latest round of elections.
asserted
guide → need → elections
Americans vote on who their next president is every four years.
But they have the chance to decide which political party controls Congress, the US House of Representatives and the Senate, more often.
asserted
party → vote → Representatives
When a president is being voted in, seats in both chambers are up for election as well.
asserted
seats → vote → election
And then halfway through the president's term, voters head back to the polls to shake Congress up again.
asserted
voters → head → Congress
This is known as the midterm elections.
asserted
This → know → elections
That's because while House members serve two-year terms, senators serve six-year staggered terms.
asserted
senators → serve → terms
Can Trump lose the midterms?
asserted
Trump → lose → midterms
US President Donald Trump may not be up for election right now, but the outcome of the midterms will shape how much power he has for the rest of his term.
uncertain
he → shape → term
Congress is responsible for making federal laws, controlling the budget and keeping the president in check.
And while the Republican Party (also known as the GOP) currently controls both chambers, it's at risk of losing them both.
asserted
it → make → them
Even just one chamber changing over to the Democrats would make Trump's political life much more difficult.
asserted
life → change → Democrats
He would find himself having to negotiate with his opponents to get laws and budgets passed, as well as possibly facing increased scrutiny of his actions and business dealings.
uncertain
laws → find → actions
Several Democrats have been calling for investigations into Trump and his allies, and if they win back power in congressional committees, they would have the power to follow through.
asserted
they → call → power
As part of their investigations, those committees have the power to call on people to testify at hearings and require them to produce documents.
If they uncover evidence of any wrongdoing, they can refer their findings to the Department of Justice for prosecution.
asserted
they → have → prosecution
The department is currently run by Trump appointee Todd Blanche.
asserted
department → run → Blanche
Why are people talking about Trump's popularity?
asserted
people → talk → popularity
While Trump will not face voters, his popularity still has a strong influence over the outcome.
asserted
popularity → face → outcome
The president's party almost always loses House seats in midterm elections and that trend gets steeper when the president is unpopular.
asserted
president → lose → elections
Historical polling data collated by analytics firm Gallup shows presidents with approval ratings below 50 per cent have seen their party lose an average of 37 House seats.
asserted
party → collate → seats
Presidents with approval ratings above 50 per cent have netted smaller losses, with an average of 14 seats.
asserted
Presidents → net → seats
At the 2018 midterms, Trump had an approval rating of 41 per cent, and the Republicans lost 40 House seats.
asserted
Republicans → have → seats
This time around, his popularity is sitting at about 37 per cent, according to a polling average by the Silver Bulletin.
uncertain
popularity → sit → Bulletin
They will take place on Tuesday, November 3, 2026, US time.
asserted
They → take → Tuesday
That works out to run over late Tuesday and into Wednesday afternoon here in Australia.
asserted
That → work → Australia
The ABC will be live-blogging the midterms, and we will have coverage of the biggest stories here.
When will we know the result?
asserted
we → blogge → result
We can expect to see the results rolling in from the morning of Wednesday, November 4, in Australia.
asserted
results → expect → Australia
Officials will start counting votes once the polls close in their state, and results will start being known within a few hours.
asserted
results → start → hours
Most of the public's votes should be counted on election night in the US.
asserted
Most → count → US
But because each state has different rules about how ballots are counted and reported, it could take longer for some jurisdictions.
uncertain
it → have → jurisdictions
Even if a state counts quickly, we might not see races officially called for days if the margins are close.
uncertain
margins → count → days
With Trump continuing to falsely claim that he won the 2020 presidential election, some commentators believe he will try to dispute the midterms results, leading a bipartisan group of politicians to seek pledges from their colleagues to accept the election's outcome.
uncertain
he → continue → outcome
The Aporia