Donald Trump has repeatedly asked voters to pretend that he is on the ballot in November’s crucial midterm elections.
asserted
he → ask → elections
And in the comfortable confines of Arizona’s most affluent and fiercely contested congressional district, Trump is definitely on voters’ minds.
asserted
Trump → contest → minds
But whether that helps or hurts the warring congressional candidates in this sun-drenched swath of suburbia, where Teslas and walled-in luxury homes dominate, depends on who you ask.
“Any politician on the face of the Earth who’s a Republican is not getting my vote,” Tom Wolfe, a lifelong Republican, said while sitting down to a lunch of a burger and fries.
asserted
Wolfe → help → burger
Trump’s endorsement is a “death knell”, the 82-year-old said.
asserted
old → say → ?
He plans to vote for Democrats in next week’s elections.
asserted
He → plan → elections
For David McGahan, a retired accountant reveling in his retirement life in Rio Verde, a desert enclave outside Scottsdale, the economy and the country are working well under Trump.
asserted
economy → revel → Trump
“I like the course the country is on,” McGahan said while pumping gas at a local Costco.
asserted
McGahan → like → Costco
“Mostly,” he conceded, when a reporter noted the $101 charge for his fill-up.
asserted
reporter → concede → up
Cushioned between blue cities and red counties, America’s suburbs have emerged nationally as political battlegrounds.
asserted
suburbs → cushion → battlegrounds
That is especially true of Arizona’s first congressional district, which includes north Scottsdale and Paradise Valley.
asserted
which → include → Scottsdale
Here, among the high-end golf courses and desert estates with breathtaking mountain views, the competition between Democrat Amish Shah – an emergency room doctor who narrowly lost the seat in 2024 – and Republican Jay Feely – a former National Football League kicker backed by Trump – could help determine control of the House in November.
uncertain
who → lose → November
Since Trump’s election a decade ago, Republicans’ hold on the district has slipped, though the party still maintains a voter registration advantage.
asserted
party → slip → advantage
The seat is open, after Republican congressman David Schweikert opted to not seek a ninth term.
asserted
Schweikert → opt → term
“These are your McCain-type voters,” said Matt Grodsky, a Democratic political strategist referring to the late Arizona senator and 2008 Republican presidential nominee, John McCain.
asserted
Grodsky → say → senator
They’re business owners, hold college degrees and relatively tuned in to politics.
asserted
They → ’re → politics
Given the current dissatisfaction with the Trump agenda and no incumbent with built-in name ID, Grodsky said circumstances are ripe for a change in this onetime Republican stronghold.
asserted
circumstances → give → stronghold
“If there’s going to be a swing,” he said, “it should be this cycle.”
asserted
it → go → ?
With a median income of $102,000, 33% of residents holding a bachelor’s degree and 22% with an advanced degree, voters in the district lean conservative, but don’t fit comfortably in Trump’s Make America Great Again (Maga) movement , said Mike Noble, founder of Noble Predictive Insights, a nonpartisan pollster based in Arizona.
asserted
Noble → hold → Arizona
Voters here helped deliver a slew of recent Democratic victories, including a succession of Democrats to the state’s two Senate seats, a slight tilt to Joe Biden in 2020, and a slate of top statewide officials in 2022 when voters rejected Maga-aligned candidates.
asserted
voters → deliver → candidates
But Schweikert managed to hold on, albeit narrowly.
asserted
Schweikert → manage → ?
More cracks appeared in 2024, when UN Ambassador Nikki Haley won nearly 25% of the district’s vote in the state’s presidential primary – even though Trump had already clinched the Republican nomination.
asserted
Trump → appear → nomination
Months later, while Trump easily won a second term from Arizona voters, the victory margin in the district was 3% compared with 5.5% statewide.
asserted
margin → win → %
“We’re watching a bit of a political revolution play out in slow motion,” said Stan Barnes, a political consultant and former Republican state senator.
asserted
Barnes → watch → motion
The shift comes from voters like Greg Edmunds who was a Republican for most of his life, backing candidates such as McCain and George W Bush.
asserted
who → come → McCain
Trump’s ascension in the party changed all that; he is now a registered independent.
asserted
he → change → that
In the battle for Congress, Edmunds said Feely’s well-publicized embrace of Trump – amplified by the pro-Shah campaign – makes the choice an easy one.
asserted
choice → say → campaign
He will vote for Shah to help block Trump’s agenda.
asserted
He → vote → agenda
“We just can’t have a rubber-stamp Congress,” the Scottsdale resident said.
asserted
resident → have → Congress
“I can’t vote for someone like that.”
asserted
I → vote → that
In September, as Trump’s approval ratings slipped nationwide, the influential Cook Political Report changed its rating of the Feely-Shah race from “toss-up” to “leans Democrat”.
asserted
Report → slip → Democrat
Feely supporters say the district is still conservative at heart, and voters ultimately are motivated by a desire to keep taxes low and make prices more affordable.
asserted
prices → say → taxes
That makes Feely a good fit for the district, said Adam Kwasman, a Republican and member of the Scottsdale city council.
asserted
Kwasman → make → council
An early backer of Feely, Kwasman likened his demeanor to that of former Arizona governor Doug Ducey: pro-business, genial and decidedly not a flame thrower.
asserted
Kwasman → liken → Ducey
“The Shah campaign is grasping at straws if they think the Republican nominee for Congress is a problem,” Kwasman said, pointing to the district’s preference for conservatives and downplaying the constant reminders of Trump’s backing of Feely.
asserted
Kwasman → grasp → Feely
Feely, who Trump not only endorsed but also encouraged to drop his campaign in a neighboring district to run in congressional district one, has leaned hard on his football ties, hosting regular “huddles” with his team and peppering roadsides with campaign signs with a football motif.
asserted
Trump → endorse → motif
His opponent, Shah, has football ties of his own.
asserted
opponent → have → own
The two never met, but the coincidence has made for a fun bit of common ground in a race where the two candidates disagree sharply on key issues from healthcare and datacenters to tariffs and congressional accountability.
asserted
candidates → meet → tariffs
Feely’s campaign, with hefty support from Turning Point Action, has sought to portray Shah as a socialist, posting signs that link the Democrat to Senator Bernie Sanders.
asserted
that → seek → Sanders
Shah, who won the party’s nomination again this year after a nasty primary battle against a rival backed by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, firmly rejects the socialist label.
asserted
who → win → label
Meanwhile, his campaign has touted an endorsement from former state house speaker Rusty Bowers, a Republican who resisted pressure from Trump to overturn the results of the 2020 election in Arizona.
asserted
who → tout → Arizona
…and 24 more, not listed.
The Aporia
