Ethiopia has received 12 Russian Su-35 fighter jets and will acquire four S-400 air defence batteries, in a deal experts say strengthens Moscow’s foothold in the Horn of Africa while bolstering Addis Ababa’s military amid conflict at home and tensions with neighbouring Eritrea.
asserted
experts → receive → Eritrea
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed announced the deal in Moscow during the two-day Russia-Africa Summit.
asserted
Ahmed → announce → Summit
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it → demand → Spain
I value the friendly relations between Russia and Ethiopia,” Russian President Vladimir Putin said in a statement.
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Putin → value → statement
“Russia and Ethiopia stand together in international affairs.”
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Russia → stand → affairs
Experts say the agreement builds on decades of military cooperation, offering Moscow arms revenue and diplomatic influence while allowing Ethiopia to strengthen its armed forces amid its ongoing conflict in Tigray.
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Ethiopia → say → Tigray
Here is what we know:
What weapons is Ethiopia acquiring?
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Ethiopia → know → weapons
Abiy said Ethiopia had taken delivery of its first 12 Su-35s under an earlier agreement with Russia, with four S-400 batteries to follow, but did not say when the air defence systems would arrive.
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systems → say → batteries
The aircraft would expand an air force already equipped with Russian fighter jets.
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aircraft → expand → jets
The S-400 systems would complement this existing fleet by helping the military defend itself against aerial threats, experts say.
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experts → complement → threats
“They would be best used against conventional air threats,” Benedict Manzin, a lead analyst on the Middle East and Africa at risk consultancy Sibylline, told Al Jazeera.
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Manzin → use → Jazeera
“In a war with Eritrea, they could be used against Eritrea’s limited air force and drones.”
uncertain
they → use → force
However, air defences do not provide protection against every kind of attack.
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defences → provide → attack
“As we have seen in Ukraine, conventional air defence systems can be overwhelmed by small, cheap drones,” he said.
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he → see → drones
Why does Russia want closer ties with Ethiopia?
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Russia → want → Ethiopia
The relationship predates the current competition for influence in Africa.
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relationship → predate → Africa
“Russia has been engaged in Ethiopia for decades, part of the legacy of the Cold War,” Manzin said.
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Manzin → engage → War
The Soviet Union backed Ethiopia’s former communist government.
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Union → back → government
Today’s cooperation builds on those foundations, with the two countries having signed military agreements intended to improve the Ethiopian armed forces’ capabilities through technology, knowledge and training, according to the Ethiopian News Agency.
uncertain
countries → build → Agency
Commercial interests also matter.
asserted
interests → matter → ?
“Russia is also in the business of making money through arms sales,” Manzin said.
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Manzin → make → sales
Weapons sales provide revenue while sustaining relationships with governments that require training, maintenance and replacement equipment.
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that → provide → training
But the partnership extends beyond defence.
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partnership → extend → defence
Abiy said his talks with Putin covered nuclear energy, health and trade, alongside bilateral and multilateral cooperation, while in a statement, Putin said bilateral trade exceeded $1.3bn in January-September, more than twice the figure for all of 2025.
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trade → say → 2025
He identified energy, agriculture, industry and education among potential areas for further cooperation.
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He → identify → cooperation
Ethiopia’s size also makes it attractive to competing powers, with experts saying that because it is Africa’s second-most populous country, it offers a substantial market.
“Everyone engages a bit, and Ethiopia tries to maximise its gains,” Manzin said.
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Manzin → make → gains
Does this mean Ethiopia is turning away from the West?
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Ethiopia → mean → West
Manzin suggested Ethiopia is widening its options rather than committing exclusively to Moscow.
uncertain
Ethiopia → suggest → Moscow
“African states are aware that they are a focus of geopolitical competition,” he said.
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he → say → competition
That competition gives governments room to seek weapons, investment and diplomatic backing from different partners.
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competition → give → partners
Ethiopia’s relationship with Russia coexists with a significant Chinese presence and continuing Western investment in the country.
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relationship → coexist → country
“China has a huge presence in Ethiopia, and Russian arms have always been a huge factor,” Manzin said.
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Manzin → have → Ethiopia
Moscow is seeking to turn those established connections into broader influence as Western sanctions over its war in Ukraine constrain its international relationships.
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sanctions → seek → relationships
Russia supplied 15 percent of African imports of major weapons in 2021–2025, behind the United States at 19 percent and China at 17 percent, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).
uncertain
Russia → supply → Institute
Could the weapons be used in Tigray?
uncertain
weapons → use → Tigray
In his statement, Abiy thanked Putin for ensuring the aircraft were delivered a year ahead of schedule and said the equipment would strengthen Ethiopia’s ability to “preemptively deter aggression”.
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equipment → thank → aggression
The delivery comes amid renewed fighting in Tigray, a separate rebellion in Amhara and concerns about a possible conflict with Eritrea.
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delivery → come → Eritrea
“Ethiopia is buying a lot of aircraft,” Manzin said.
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Manzin → buy → aircraft
“The timing comes as Ethiopia is going through conflict in Tigray, with speculation about war with Eritrea.”
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Ethiopia → come → Eritrea
He cautioned against assuming the latest battlefield developments directly prompted purchases negotiated earlier.
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developments → caution → purchases
…and 7 more, not listed.
The Aporia
