39 million people have already voted in this year’s midterm as Trump makes final push to save his majority

Read the original at The Independent ↗
Cite

Scott, O. (2026, October 29). 39 million people have already voted in this year’s midterm as Trump makes final push to save his majority. The Independent. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/midterm-elections-early-voting-trump-b3075426.html

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The Independent · collected 2026-10-29 · by Owen Scott

Quick Summary

Around 39 million Americans have already voted in the midterms as President Trump rallies for Republican candidates. According to an NBC News analysis, 18.6 million mailed ballots and 21 million in-person votes have been cast ahead of election day, with Democrats leading Republicans among early voters at 47% to 35%. In Texas, over 5 million votes are already counted, showing a significant Republican edge despite national trends favoring Democrats.
Written by AI on 2026-10-29, from this article's own text only (the story summary below draws on all the coverage).

AI analysis

Why this leaning score
The article's own words the score was based on. Each is quoted verbatim and was checked against the article text before being stored, so you can find it in the original.
Reading Leans left (beta estimate) Confidence high
Leaning: leans left for article 114311 (high confidence, 4 verified quotes) · logged 2026-10-29

Story

📰 Trump Pushes For Midterm Elections
Politics · 1 article(s) covering the same event.

Compared with similar articles

This article reads leans left and hedges 17% of its claims. Each row says how that neighbour differs.
Al Jazeera
Hedges 20 of 101 claims Outlet record 60/100
“Article A provides an overview of upcoming midterm elections with no mention of early voting statistics or current events, while Article B focuses on early voting results and Trump's final push before the election.”
CBS News
Hedges 1 of 2 claims Outlet record 66/100
“The articles discuss different aspects of the midterm elections; one covers voter issues based on polling data while the other reports on early voting numbers and Trump's campaign efforts.”
CBC News
Hedges 9 of 93 claims Outlet record 60/100
“The articles discuss different aspects of the midterm elections; Article A focuses on the necessary gains for Democrats to flip power, while Article B reports on early voting numbers and Trump's final push.”
CBC News
⚖️ Leans left Hedges 5 of 46 claims Outlet record 74/100
“The articles discuss different aspects of the election: Article A focuses on Hispanic voter behavior and its potential impact, while Article B discusses overall early voting trends.”
The Straits Times
Hedges 5 of 34 claims Outlet record 68/100
“The articles cover different aspects of the election context rather than a single specific incident.”
ABC News (AU)
⚖️ Leans left Hedges 1 of 30 claims Outlet record 68/100
“The articles discuss different aspects of the election process; one focuses on demographic shifts from a past presidential election victory and the other reports on current early voting trends for an upcoming midterm election.”
The Sydney Morning Herald
⚖️ Leans left Hedges 3 of 42 claims Outlet record 61/100
“The articles discuss different aspects of the midterm elections; Article A provides an overview and context for the upcoming election, while Article B reports on early voting numbers and current campaigning activities.”
Toronto Star
⚖️ Leans left Hedges 4 of 39 claims Outlet record 64/100
“The articles discuss different aspects of the midterm election process — Article A focuses on tight races and polling trends, while Article B reports on early voting numbers and President Trump's campaigning.”
The Guardian
⚖️ Leans left Hedges 1 of 4 claims Outlet record 67/100
“The articles discuss different aspects of the election process; one focuses on Republican tactics to influence the vote, while the other reports on early voting trends and Trump's final push.”
ABC News (US)
⚖️ Leans left Hedges 7 of 31 claims Outlet record 70/100
“While both articles discuss early voting trends ahead of midterm elections, they focus on different aspects and do not clearly describe the exact same incident.”
How this article was measured signals, leaning charts, publisher record, byline, topics and claims

Signals How these are calculated →

Claims extracted
18
sentences that state something as happening or true
Uncertain
17%
3 of 18 hedged ("reportedly", "may", "according to")
Leaning
Leans left
of the writing, not the subject · beta estimate
Publisher signals
59/100
The Independent's corrections and hedging, across everything collected from it. Not a measure of accuracy.
Outlets on this story
1
Politics
Same framing elsewhere
1
articles that frame the event the way this one does
Analyzed 2026-10-29 · how these are computed

How this is being covered How these are calculated →

Article leaning vs. publisher reliability
Source leaning vs. consistency

Publisher

The Independent · 3328 article(s) · 6 correction(s) detected
Running correction rate · 6 correction(s)

Who wrote this

Owen Scott
77 article(s) here · 1 carrying a prediction
🔮 President Donald Trump has warned a federal judge that he will hold her personally responsible if anyone dies on a “highly dangerous” golf course he wants renovated.
🔮 Currently, the GOP controls both the House and the Senate, but some polls have shown that the Democratic Party could flip the balance of power in Congress.
🔮 During his show, Maher said that Trump had the “lowest approval rating of any midterm candidate ever,” poked fun at the president’s comments about Senator Jon Husted’s body and asked Leavitt what Trump could be like during the “lame-duck” phase of his presidency.
🔮 A DOGE affiliate who oversaw the firing of thousands of federal employees and ended USAID may not have had the authority to do so, according to a report.
🔮 The former press secretary was asked by Finnerty if she would ever return to Hannity’s show, after her tense interview with the Fox News host.
🔮 However, Trump wrote on Truth Social on Tuesday that his endorsement of Netanyahu turned around the latter’s campaign and may still carry him back to office. “When President Trump endorsed Bibi Netanyahu, the whole tide turned, and now, rather than a decisive defeat for a Great Prime Minister, it looks like a big come-from-behind stalemate, or even a WIN for Netanyahu,” Trump wrote, seemingly crediting the quote to a man named Irving C. Schwartz.
🔮 During his show, Maher said that Trump had the “lowest approval rating of any midterm candidate ever,” poked fun at the president’s comments about Senator Jon Husted’s body and asked Leavitt what Trump could be like during the “lame-duck” phase of his presidency.
🔮 “Accordingly, they were sentenced to jail time for those decisions and will have to restore what they damaged at their expense.”
🔮 Larita told the outlet: “If it had been another five minutes, it would’ve been a different situation.
🔮 Trump went on to claim that he was told that he could win the prize in 2026, only for someone else to receive it once again.
Also by Owen Scott
Nothing else under this byline is closely related to this article, so these are simply their most recent.
All 77 articles by Owen Scott →

Topics

Congress Democrats GOP Republican Senate

Subjects

Democrats NORP · 6× GOP ORG · 4× Congress ORG · 3× Republican NORP · 3× Senate ORG · 3× Texas GPE · 3× Trump PERSON · 3× House ORG · 2× NBC News ORG · 2× the Democratic Party ORG · 2×

Narrative

The data examined by the network also revealed that 77 percent of those who had voted early in Senate battleground states had voted previously in 2024 and 2022, compared to 16 percent who voted in 2024 only and six percent who did not vote in either election.
framing: assertive · carried by 1 article(s) · first seen 2026-10-29
🔮 Currently, the GOP controls both the House and the Senate, but some polls have shown that the Democratic Party could flip the balance of power in Congress.

Claims (18 extracted, 3 hedged)

With days of campaign left to go, around 39 million Americans have already voted in this year’s pivotal midterm elections. asserted
Americans → leave → elections
The surge in early voting comes just under a week before most people head to the polls, with President Donald Trump throwing his weight behind Republican campaigns with a series of rallies. asserted
Trump → come → rallies
Currently, the GOP controls both the House and the Senate, but some polls have shown that the Democratic Party could flip the balance of power in Congress. uncertain
Party → control → Congress
Around 18.6 million mail-in votes and 21 million in-person votes have already been cast to decide who will control Congress, according to an analysis by NBC News on Thursday. uncertain
who → mail → Thursday
The analysis looked at state data and figures provided by the Democratic-aligned research firm TargetSmart. asserted
analysis → look → firm
Forty-seven percent of those who have voted are registered as Democrats, while 35 percent are registered as Republicans, the data shows. asserted
data → vote → Republicans
In the face of wider polling figures signalling frustration with his party, Trump has been a prominent figure in the GOP’s campaigns, appearing at a number of rallies to drum up support for Republican candidates. asserted
Trump → signal → candidates
“Pretend I'm on the ballot, because if you get out, we're going to win big,” he told a crowd in Iowa. asserted
he → pretend → Iowa
Meanwhile, Democrats are fighting close races in traditional GOP strongholds during this midterm cycle, with U.S. Senate nominee James Talarico neck-and-neck with Republican nominee Ken Paxton in Texas. asserted
Talarico → fight → Texas
As of Wednesday, more than 5 million votes have already been cast in Texas, according to data from the Election Lab at the University of Florida. uncertain
votes → cast → Florida
In mid-October, Texas Secretary of State Robert Howden announced that the state had 19 million registered voters ahead of the election on November 3. asserted
state → announce → November
The state bucks the trend of more Democrats heading to the polls early, as the data reviewed by NBC News shows 45 percent of those who have already cast their ballots are registered as Republicans - compared to the 44 percent registered as Democrats. asserted
who → buck → Democrats
The data examined by the network also revealed that 77 percent of those who had voted early in Senate battleground states had voted previously in 2024 and 2022, compared to 16 percent who voted in 2024 only and six percent who did not vote in either election. asserted
who → examine → election
Currently, the Republican Party holds 53 seats in the Senate compared to the Democrats’ 47 seats, which includes two independents who usually vote along with the party. asserted
who → hold → party
The GOP also holds a majority in the House with 218 seats, compared to the Democrats’ 214 seats. asserted
GOP → hold → seats
The Democratic Party has targeted its campaigns at voter frustrations with the war in Iran and the cost of living, as well as stating that increased power in Congress would enable them to put checks on Trump’s policies. asserted
power → target → policies
However, there has been some concern over whether Trump will accept the results of the November 3 elections, given that he has previously questioned the legitimacy of the 2020 Presidential Election and alleged that mail-in voting is susceptible to fraud. asserted
voting → accept → fraud
Asked earlier this week whether he will accept the results of the election, he replied: “I will if they’re honest elections.” asserted
they → ask → election
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