I met Mark, in his late 50s, at an upscale restaurant in downtown Dallas.
asserted
I → meet → Dallas
He is a lifelong Democrat and an immigration attorney, and, in general, is the kind of voter Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico needs not only to vote for him but to be excited to do so.
asserted
Talarico → need → him
"My dad worked the railroad, made me go to college, we were LBJ [Lyndon B. Johnson] Democrats, and well, let’s just say, Talarico is obviously very different from Johnson, or even Ann Richards [Texas’ last Democratic governor, who served in the 1990s]."
asserted
who → work → 1990s
Mark declined to tell me who he was voting for, or even whether he would vote, but I suspect Talarico can count on him, especially given Mark’s less-than-favorable view of Republican Ken Paxton.
asserted
Talarico → decline → Paxton
But there was no excitement when he talked about the race.
asserted
he → be → race
Like so many others I spoke with, he said, "This isn’t like when Beto [O’Rourke] ran."
asserted
O’Rourke → speak → others
Jay and Darryl are two Black men in their 50s whom I met while they were having breakfast near the AT&T Discovery District.
asserted
they → meet → District
They each have very different ideas about what is going to happen Tuesday, when voters have their final say.
asserted
voters → have → say
Jay told Fox News Digital of the Senate race, "Actually, I don’t think it's going to be close, he’s going to kill it, because he can get people to flip over," adding, "He would have had a harder time with [Sen. John] Cornyn."
asserted
He → tell → Cornyn
Darryl, however, seemed less convinced, arguing that in Texas, "Conservatives aren’t loud, they don’t march, they don’t act up, they paint their hair, but I think they are the silent majority."
Both men agreed that Talarico’s failure to mend fences with his primary opponent, Rep. Jasmine Crockett, D-Texas, is a problem for Talarico, but they differed on how significant a problem it was, with Jay arguing, "She’s still helping, just down-ballot."
asserted
She → seem → Talarico
Carlos, who lives in Dallas and works in a hotel, told me over a cigar that looking "at the trajectory of America …
asserted
who → live → America
I just don’t feel represented in any way."
asserted
I → feel → way
He went on to say, "I really wanted to believe it, the whole thing about no wars … my gas is super expensive from the people who said there was not going to be a war.
asserted
who → go → people
This is good news for Talarico, in part because Carlos is a Joe Rogan fan who, though not a President Donald Trump voter, was open to the possibility that Trump could sway him, something that has not happened.
uncertain
that → sway → him
On the other side of the ledger for Talarico, or perhaps I should say for Ken Paxton, is Debbie, a suburban mother who told Fox News Digital, "I’m a moderate, I have voted for Democrats, I voted for Beto, but Talarico just says so much crazy stuff, it's too much for Texas."
asserted
it → say → Texas
Had these conversations taken place across the Lone Star State, it might be good news for Talarico, but all of these people are in the Dallas area, where he needs to rack up major numbers to offset GOP dominance in rural areas.
uncertain
he → take → areas
On Tuesday, I spoke with GOP consultant Vinny Minchello before we appeared on "The Will Cain Show."
asserted
we → speak → Show
He said, "I do not like what I see in the early voting for Paxton."
asserted
I → say → Paxton
He estimated that the GOP was about 100,000 votes behind but acknowledged that, as a consultant, he never tries to paint a rosy picture.
asserted
he → estimate → picture
When asked specifically about the early vote in the Black community, he told Fox News Digital, "It looks like it is down."
asserted
it → ask → Digital
One wild-card issue that continues to come up in my conversations on the ground is the riots in France, with one voter telling me, "What if that was New York City, or D.C.?
asserted
that → continue → What
That doesn’t really seem impossible."
The GOP, especially at Vice President JD Vance’s rallies, has been hitting the France issue, and what it says about unchecked immigration, hard in recent days, and I would expect that to continue.
asserted
that → seem → days
Make no mistake, the Texas Senate race is tight, but if James Talarico cannot shore up the many votes he needs in Big D, it very well could leave Ken Paxton with enough votes in red counties to close the deal with Texas voters and help keep the Senate in Republican hands.
uncertain
it → make → hands
The Aporia
