- Published
In the sprawling former industrial city of Osasco, shuttered factories have given way to a shopping malls and delivery app tech companies in what is now dubbed São Paulo's "Silicon Valley."
asserted
what → publish → malls
The municipality voted for Brazil's left-wing President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in 2022 but switched to the right-wing Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of Brazil's presidential election this month.
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municipality → vote → election
Bolsonaro won that vote - and now the two men face a run-off on Sunday.
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men → win → Sunday
Since 1989, every first-round winner has gone on to be elected president.
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winner → go → 1989
Like many of President Lula's traditional supporters, Gilberto Almazan, who leads a metalworkers' union here, is visibly worried.
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who → lead → union
He cries when he tells Lula's life story: a boy who grew up in hunger in the north-east, who became a metalworker, then a union leader, then a three-time president.
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who → cry → east
But he's candid about how things have changed here and how the union movement that was so integral to Lula's support base is stuck in the "Middle Ages", and struggling to keep up.
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that → change → Ages
"We had strong deindustrialisation here," Almazan says.
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Almazan → have → deindustrialisation
"The profile of the working class changed.
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profile → work → class
Metal, chemical, textile factories disappeared.
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factories → disappear → ?
And five malls were built."
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malls → build → ?
The word "change" comes up repeatedly among Bolsonaro supporters here.
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change → come → supporters
Many struggle to name specific Bolsonaro policies they like but know they want to try something different: frustrated by the economy, crime and corruption in politics – even though Flávio has been faced accusations of corruption too, which he denies.
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he → struggle → which
"He brings the hope of change, that we can have a different Brazil," says lawyer Gisele Bonfim in Osasco, who decided to vote for Bolsonaro after supporting Lula in 2022.
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who → bring → 2022
Lula's re-election campaign has been hampered by voters turning away from him.
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campaign → hamper → him
In some cases, their frustration drove abstention, which was higher than average this year, but others like Gisele actively wanted something new.
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others → drive → something
One major reason for that is Brazil's working class has transformed seismically in places like Osasco.
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class → transform → Osasco
Near one large shopping mall lies an open-air market where this shift is noticeable.
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shift → lie → mall
Everyone is touting products, armed with a portable card machine.
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Everyone → tout → machine
Tairine, who sells hot dogs, used to abstain from voting, even though - as voting is compulsory in Brazil - not going to the polls incurs a fine.
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going → sell → fine
This year, she plans to vote for Bolsonaro.
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she → plan → Bolsonaro
She points to high taxes paid on "everything" she buys and says these make it "so difficult for a poor person" dealing with inflation, arguing "nothing has changed" since Lula became president again.
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Lula → point → inflation
Flávio Bolsonaro has proposed cutting government spending, government ministries, and some taxes - though he has said he'd maintain some of Lula's flagship welfare programmes.
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he → propose → programmes
For his supporters, Lula is a working-class hero credited with advancing workers' rights through organising strikes and lifting millions of people out of poverty with generous social welfare programmes as president.
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Lula → credit → president
But across Brazil millions now work in the gig economy, a phenomenon Almazan calls "Uber-isation": driving for Uber, delivering food, or running small businesses from market stalls to providing at-home beauty treatments.
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Almazan → work → treatments
"There are a lot of workers who need more freedom, flexibility of days and hours," he says, rather than the welfare and collective action Lula offered.
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Lula → be → welfare
Richard Lapper, who has written biographies of both Lula and Jair Bolsonaro – Flavio's father who was president from 2019-2022 - says the rise of individualised work and the decline of manufacturing caused by globalisation are not unique to Brazil.
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rise → write → Brazil
But because Brazil industrialised late and deindustrialised early, he argues, the effects have been sharper here.
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effects → industrialise → ?
He calls Lula a "victim of his own success."
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He → call → success
Unemployment fell to a record low, and Brazil was taken off the United Nation's Hunger Map during Lula's current presidency.
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Brazil → fall → presidency
But Lapper describes a crisis of "expectations" where people are now better off but don't feel it because prices have risen and household debt and interest rates are high.
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debt → describe → it
Originally from Lula's north-eastern home state of Pernambuco, he grew up supporting him.
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he → grow → him
But he describes a country now running deficits and says its citizens are enduring the "worst phase" of its tax burden, which he blames on the Lula government's "mismanagement" of the economy and high public spending.
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he → describe → economy
"Now you have to make choices: pay an instalment for your car, or put food on the table," he says.
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he → have → table
Lula's comeback strategy
In some areas, Lula lost votes compared to 2022, even though Bolsonaro did not gain more than his father did then: 33 million people did not vote in the first round, the highest abstention since 1998.
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people → lose → 1998
In response, Lula's campaign has focused on mobilising hundreds of thousands of people – particularly students – on to the streets to get the vote out for round two.
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campaign → focus → round
It claims one rally in São Paulo attracted about a million people.
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rally → claim → people
"A lot of people didn't vote, they thought it wouldn't change anything," says one supporter, Leila.
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supporter → vote → anything
"Our fight is to make those people believe their vote changes things."
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vote → make → things
Aerial videos of these huge demonstrations have been plastered across social media.
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videos → plaster → media
…and 22 more, not listed.
The Aporia
