When Hamas-led militants attacked Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, it looked like Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ’s days in office were numbered.
asserted
days → lead → office
With the country overwhelmed by grief and anger after the deadliest security breakdown in its history, his resignation seemed like a matter of time.
But the divisive veteran Israeli leader has scratched, scraped and literally battled his way back during a stormy three-year period of nonstop domestic crises and wars across the region.
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leader → overwhelm → region
Confounding his critics, he now finds himself in a tight race for reelection on Tuesday.
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he → confound → Tuesday
A poor showing could end the 77-year-old’s lengthy career on a bitter note and open the door to a new era in Israeli politics.
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showing → end → politics
A victory would cement his image as the ultimate political survivor.
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victory → cement → survivor
Former Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, a onetime ally turned rival of Netanyahu, said there has never been so much at stake — from national security to the future of Israel’s democratic institutions and its standing in the world.
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Olmert → turn → world
After a series of wars that have destabilized the region and jolted the global economy, the world is watching closely.
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world → destabilize → economy
Politicians often say the current election is the most fateful in their country’s history, Olmert said, but “this time it really is.”
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it → say → history
Referendum on Netanyahu
Netanyahu’s opponents, led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, see Tuesday as a day of reckoning.
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opponents → lead → reckoning
They say Netanyahu should be held accountable for Oct. 7 and the failure to turn battlefield victories into diplomatic achievements.
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Netanyahu → say → achievements
“What he is offering is an eternal war,” Eisenkot, whose son and two nephews were killed in combat, said in a radio interview.
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son → offer → interview
“Choosing a leader whose only goal is not to surrender means choosing a leader who will not deliver victories.”
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who → choose → victories
Netanyahu’s supporters say he was betrayed by Israel’s defense establishment and that he has led the country through a remarkable turnaround with devastating strikes against Hamas, Lebanon’s Hezbollah and Iran.
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he → say → Hamas
The Israeli leader has also turned to his traditional use of scare tactics.
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leader → turn → tactics
His campaign slogan, “Right or Palestine,” which rhymes in Hebrew, suggests his opponents would establish a Palestinian state alongside Israel, something his main rivals vehemently reject.
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rivals → rhyme → Israel
A two-state solution, still seen internationally as the only realistic way to solve the conflict, is politically toxic in Israel — another legacy of Netanyahu’s long rule.
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solution → see → rule
Nearly every poster, stump speech or televised debate seems to reference the Oct. 7 attack, which has scarred the country and remains fresh in the minds of voters.
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which → televise → voters
Some 1,200 people were killed that day and 251 others taken hostage, the last of whom were returned in a ceasefire deal last year.
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last → kill → deal
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Israel responded with a military offensive that has killed over 74,000 Palestinians in Gaza, according to local health authorities, left the territory in ruins and triggered open-ended wars in Lebanon and Iran.
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that → get → Lebanon
Netanyahu faces an international arrest warrant, experts have accused Israel of genocide, and Israel’s image has further deteriorated with a spike in settler violence in the occupied West Bank.
Most Israelis across the political spectrum reject the war crimes and genocide allegations.
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Israelis → face → allegations
But Netanyahu’s opponents, including many former hostages, refer to his outgoing coalition as the “failure government” and have pledged to launch an official investigation into how Oct. 7 was allowed to happen.
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Oct. → include → investigation
Netanyahu has refused such an inquiry and calls his ongoing — and inconclusive — military campaigns a “war of redemption.”
Boosted by an endorsement from President Donald Trump, Netanyahu has also tried to turn attention to Iran, threatening to resume the war, and vowing to destroy its nuclear program and topple its government.
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Netanyahu → refuse → government
“Donald, we have a job to finish.
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we → have → job
You said it and we’ll finish it together,” he said in a conversation with Trump released by his campaign.
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he → say → campaign
Scars of Oct. 7
Netanyahu’s rule has left Israelis bitterly divided over other issues, especially a longstanding system granting ultra-Orthodox men exemptions from military service.
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rule → leave → service
In a country where enlistment is mandatory for most Jewish men and women, these exemptions have always angered the broader public.
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exemptions → anger → public
But resentment has grown as hundreds of young soldiers have been killed in battle and tens of thousands have been pulled away from families and careers for reserve duty.
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thousands → grow → duty
Netanyahu, who has close ties with politically powerful ultra-Orthodox parties, has resisted attempts to end the exemptions.
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who → have → exemptions
He has also outraged many Israelis with his attempts to overhaul the legal system.
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He → outrage → system
Before the war, Netanyahu, who is on trial for corruption charges, launched a controversial plan to weaken the courts.
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who → launch → courts
That prompted mass anti-government demonstrations by crowds who accused him of undermining the country’s system of checks and balances to escape prosecution.
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who → prompt → prosecution
Each side has accused the other of weakening Israel on the eve of the Oct. 7 attacks.
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side → accuse → attacks
The plan has been mostly frozen since then, but Netanyahu’s allies want to revive it.
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allies → freeze → it
A clear winner is unlikely
Israelis vote for political parties, not individual candidates.
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Israelis → vote → parties
Since no political party has ever captured a 61-seat majority on its own, political leaders must form coalitions.
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leaders → capture → coalitions
Netanyahu has been a master at forming coalitions with religious and nationalist partners, but opinion polls suggest a tight race between his bloc and the one led by Eisenkot.
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polls → form → Eisenkot
With non-aligned Arab parties campaigning hard, there is a strong possibility that neither of the main Jewish blocs will capture a majority.
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neither → campaign → majority
That could set the stage for weeks or even months of negotiations among around a dozen parties expected to win seats.
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That → set → seats
Small parties could gain leverage
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parties → gain → leverage
Netanyahu’s allies and members of Eisenkot’s bloc both say they will not govern with Arab partners.
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they → say → partners
…and 10 more, not listed.
The Aporia
