William Diaz has a mantra: His only political party is his Venezuelan community.
asserted
party → have → mantra
He doesn’t abide by strict partisan rules, and doesn't believe in only voting for Democrats or Republicans.
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He → abide → Democrats
He supported Republicans Sen. Rick Scott and Secretary of State Marco Rubio when they were running for office in Florida, where Diaz has lived for 37 years.
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Diaz → support → years
For these midterm elections, however, the Orlando resident hopes to make a clear statement: He does not support President Donald Trump’s immigration policies and is unhappy with how Republican-backed initiatives have affected his community.
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initiatives → hop → community
“I voted already, and what I did when I was voting and when I was with my ballot, I was really thinking and praying for all those that has no voice, those that can not vote, those immigrants that are right now victim of actions on the streets
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that → vote → streets
,” Diaz tells TIME, referring to Trump’s mass deportation agenda and the expansive influence of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE).
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Diaz → tell → Immigration
“My people have been suffering that much.”
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people → suffer → much
Diaz is one of more than 2.6 million people who have already cast ballots in Florida, either by mail or through in-person early voting, according to state figures released Sunday.
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who → cast → figures
In-person early voting began in some counties Oct. 19 and expanded statewide Oct. 24.
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voting → begin → counties
Taken together, however, Latino voters are a swing vote in several closely watched races statewide.
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voters → take → races
They were key to Trump’s Florida victory in 2024, with 56% supporting him over Kamala Harris, according to the 2024 American Electorate Voter Poll.
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% → support → Poll
But new polls ahead of Election Day suggest that Latino support for the GOP may be on shaky ground—a shift that could put Republicans to the test in Florida and shape the political landscape beyond November.
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that → suggest → November
Why Florida’s Latino voters are frustrated with Trump
Dissatisfaction among Florida’s Latino voters reflects a broader national mood, according to Stephanie Valencia, a co-founder of Equis Research, an organization that studies Latino voting behavior.
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that → frustrate → behavior
Concerns about the economy and immigration enforcement tactics are fueling dissatisfaction among Latino voters, who “make up a huge part of the electorate in Florida,” she says, pointing out that both of these issues are “disproportionately impacting” them.
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both → fuel → them
A Univision/YouGov poll, conducted Oct. 2–15, showed that 41% of registered Latino voters in Florida were “very or somewhat worried” that they, a family member, or someone close could be detained or otherwise directly affected by immigration enforcement, compared with 27% of Florida voters overall.
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they → conduct → voters
The same poll showed that 4 in 10 Latino voters in the state felt that their finances had worsened over the past year, with 70% disapproving of Trump’s handling of the cost of living in the U.S.
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% → show → U.S.
That stands in comparison to a 63% disapproval rate from Florida voters overall.
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That → stand → voters
For Johanna Chavez, a Dominican immigrant living in Kissimmee, Florida, the economy is top of mind.
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economy → live → mind
“Many people are concerned about the economy and the price of gasoline … and then there’s the cost of rent, it’s become incredibly, overwhelmingly high,” Chavez, who speaks Spanish, tells TIME through a translator.
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who → ’ → translator
“All the things they promised would be done—nothing has happened.”
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nothing → promise → ?
In the past few years, Chavez says it has felt like the United States has started “regressing,” and the opportunities she was looking for when she arrived here have not materialized in the way she had hoped.
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she → say → way
“It’s starting to feel just like the situation back in my home country, the Dominican Republic,” she says.
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she → start → country
“We all came here hoping for change, seeking a better life, but it’s ending up being the same thing all over again.
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it → come → life
Things just aren’t what they’re supposed to be.”
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they → suppose → what
Jared Nordlund, the Florida State Advocacy Director at UnidosUS, the largest nonprofit Latino rights organization in the U.S., says this is a common refrain among Floridian Latinos; people are upset over how the economy has been affected by tariffs and the war in Iran.
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economy → say → Iran
Florida was hit particularly hard by rising gas prices after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz squeezed the global energy supply, he says.
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he → hit → supply
“Florida is not a state friendly for public transportation, so people are highly reliant on the cars, and so what they would be paying for food now is having to kind of get broke between … paying to get the gas and then going to get food,” Nordlund says.
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Nordlund → pay → food
The question now is whether that dissatisfaction will translate into votes against Republicans—and whether it will be enough to tip the state’s close races.
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it → translate → races
Trump’s declining Latino support puts Florida Republicans on notice
Trump’s approval rating has plummeted with Latino voters in Florida, dropping from 58% approval at the start of his term to 36% ahead of midterm elections, according to Equis Research.
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rating → decline → Research
According to an AP-NORC poll from October, about 6 in 10 Latino voters disapprove of how Trump is handling the presidency, and more than 7 in 10 disapprove of how he is handling the economy.
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he → accord → economy
A Pew Research Center poll found that Trump’s job approval rating among Latino voters dropped from 38% in February 2025 to 24% in September and October.
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rating → find → September
Of those who backed him in the last election, approval dropped to 57%—down from 93% in early 2025.
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approval → back → 2025
The shift may be resonating with Republicans like Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar, who is seeking re-election in Florida’s 27th District in Miami-Dade—a majority Latino district that Trump carried by some 15 points in 2024.
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Trump → resonate → 2024
She publicly broke with Trump in her campaign and criticized his immigration policies.
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She → break → policies
“In July, 50% of the 50,000 people that were detained had no criminal record,” she notes in the ad.
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she → detain → ad
“Be careful what your advisers are telling you about immigration policy,” Salazar continues, addressing Trump.
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Salazar → tell → Trump
“The same Hispanics who helped you get to the White House in 2024 feel betrayed today.”
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you → help → 2024
Why Latino frustration may not translate into Democratic votes
Guillermo Grenier, a Cuban American professor of sociology at Florida International University (FIU), agrees that many Latino voters are “ticked off” at Trump.
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voters → translate → Trump
“The population, if you look at the whole Latino conglomerate, is turned off pretty strongly with Trump,” he says.
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he → look → Trump
But South Florida’s Latino electorate is unique; Grenier points out that the state is home to 1.9 million Cuban Americans—the largest concentration in the United States.
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state → point → States
…and 32 more, not listed.
The Aporia
