President Donald Trump signed an executive order Friday that waives many of the sanctions in the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act, which Congress passed in the late senator’s name last month.
asserted
Congress → sign → name
The waiver, coming a week after Trump announced a diesel deal with Russia, also underscores fraying relations between the U.S. and Ukraine.
asserted
Trump → come → U.S.
The law, which was set to take effect Oct. 18, called for sanctions targeting Russian officials, financial institutions, and other entities, alongside tariffs of up to 100% on goods imported into the U.S. from major buyers of Russian crude oil or natural gas.
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which → set → oil
Those measures were intended to restrict the financial resources supporting Russia’s war against Ukraine.
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measures → intend → Ukraine
Read More: Lawmakers Argue Trump's Russia Diesel Deal 'Violates' the Law.
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Deal → read → Law
Here's What Legal Experts Say
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Experts → say → What
The U.K.’s Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office estimated in June 2025 that international sanctions had deprived the Russian state of at least $450 billion in war funds since February 2022, including through lost oil tax revenues and immobilized central-bank reserves.
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sanctions → estimate → revenues
While Trump’s waiver leaves existing sanctions in place, it blocks the additional pressure the new measures were intended to exert.
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measures → leave → pressure
Trump has also pushed Ukraine to scale back its own campaign against Russia’s energy sector, repeatedly urging Kyiv to halt strikes on Russian fuel infrastructure and suggesting that those attacks are driving up U.S. fuel prices.
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attacks → push → prices
But Ukrainian strikes are only one factor affecting fuel prices; disruptions linked to the war with Iran are largely responsible for constraining global supplies, while reduced Russian refinery activity has added pressure to diesel markets.
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activity → affect → markets
On Oct. 11, Trump claimed that Russia and Ukraine had agreed to an “energy ceasefire.”
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Russia → claim → ceasefire
But Ukrainian officials reported Russian strikes on energy infrastructure hours after his announcement, and Zelensky said the purported agreement was news to him.
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agreement → report → him
That same day, Trump called for Ukraine to replace President Volodymyr Zelensky.
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Ukraine → call → Zelensky
Withdrawing sanctions within a week of those statements, and thereby improving Russia’s financial position, points to an increasingly uneven display of support from the U.S.
Jeff Colgan, a professor of political science at Brown University, tells TIME that the decision is basically “is like trading [Ukrainian] democracy for diesel.”
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decision → withdraw → diesel
A diesel deal with Russia, announced Oct. 9, is one of the many recent actions Trump has taken in an effort to reduce fuel prices for Americans ahead of midterm elections on Nov. 3.
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Trump → announce → Nov.
The deal came with an easing of sanctions as the Treasury Department issued a temporary license authorizing transactions involving Russian diesel, including imports into the U.S., through April 7, 2027.
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Department → come → April
In his announcement of the deal on Truth Social, Trump said that Russia had agreed to supply global markets with more than 4.8 million tons of diesel, claiming that it would bring diesel prices down “IN RECORD NUMBERS.”
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it → say → NUMBERS
But experts question whether the deal would actually have any material impact on the price of fuel for American consumers.
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deal → question → consumers
“There could be a modest short-term effect on wholesale prices, but only a small and delayed benefit, if any, would reach consumers at the pump,” says Tatiana Mitrova, a fellow at Columbia University's Center on Global Energy Policy.
uncertain
Mitrova → reach → Policy
The waiver signed Friday, in comparison, could potentially prevent additional disruption to the global energy market.
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waiver → sign → market
It allows Russian oil to continue flowing to importers like China and India, preventing further market volatility.
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oil → allow → volatility
“The broader sanctions waiver may prevent additional market disruptions, but it does not itself create new supply,” Mitrova says.
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Mitrova → prevent → supply
“The potential economic benefit to American consumers looks rather modest compared with the geopolitical cost of weakening sanctions pressure.”
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benefit → look → pressure
Reducing that pressure—which has widely been interpreted as a component of the diesel deal, though it has not been explicitly identified as such—likely benefits Russia more than the monetary value of the diesel deal itself, Mitrova points out.
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Mitrova → reduce → deal
“The much bigger financial benefit for Moscow is avoiding additional sanctions that could have undermined its much larger crude oil export revenues,” she says.
uncertain
she → avoid → revenues
And while Trump has touted the benefits of the deal, Colgan questions whether they will be tangible to any country other than Russia itself.
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they → tout → Russia
“Easing the sanctions probably won't move global prices very much (big market), but could mean substantial extra revenue for Russia,” he says.
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he → ease → Russia
But the potential consequences extend beyond Russia’s balance sheet.
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consequences → extend → sheet
The waiver also raises questions about Washington’s commitment to Ukraine as relations between the two countries deteriorate.
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relations → raise → countries
How might the sanctions waiver affect Ukraine?
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waiver → affect → Ukraine
Beyond its impact on global diesel prices, Trump’s sanctions waiver could deepen a growing rift between the U.S. and Ukraine—raising further questions about Washington’s support for Kyiv.
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waiver → deepen → Kyiv
Konstantin Sonin, a Russian economist and a professor at the University of Chicago Harris School of Public Policy, reads the move as a symbolic gesture of support for Russian President Vladimir Putin.
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Sonin → read → Putin
He suggests that it could send a message to U.S. allies that extends beyond economic considerations.
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that → suggest → considerations
“I think this will be read by Ukraine and Ukraine leadership—and European leadership—as another step in the United States withdrawing from being an active European player,” he tells TIME.
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he → think → TIME
In addition to bolstering Russia’s finances and giving it latitude in its invasion of Ukraine, Sonin says that the waiver of additional sanctions could also “boost morale” for Putin.
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waiver → bolster → Putin
“It’s another bit of signaling that the United States is not as supportive of Ukraine as they were historically,” he adds.
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he → ’ → ?
“You still cannot say that the United States is on Putin's side, but it is another bit of diminishing support for Ukraine.”
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it → say → Ukraine
Mitrova agrees that the biggest benefit to Russia might be more strategic than financial.
uncertain
benefit → agree → Russia
“For Putin, the most valuable outcome may not be additional diesel revenues but the perception that Washington is increasingly prioritizing domestic energy prices over sustained pressure on Russia,” she says.
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she → prioritize → Russia
“That could reinforce the Kremlin’s belief that it can outlast Western support rather than make meaningful concessions.”
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it → reinforce → concessions
…and 23 more, not listed.
The Aporia
