Domestic politics appear poised to trigger a new phase of war with Iran
The warning signs are flashing red with indications that once the ballots are counted in the U.S. midterm elections, the United States and Israel will relaunch their war with Iran.
asserted
States → poise → Iran
The next round of attacks could be more devastating than the first, warn analysts.
uncertain
analysts → warn → first
"A renewed war seems almost inevitable," said Danny Citrinowicz, an Israeli Middle East and Iran analyst whose earlier warnings and cautions about the risks of a direct conflict with Iran were largely borne out by events.
asserted
warnings → renew → events
Citrinowicz, who worked for Israel's military as an intelligence official for more than two decades, had initially warned that any U.S. and Israeli attack on the Islamic regime would not likely lead to regime change but would instead end up engulfing the entire region in a wider conflict — an assessment that proved true.
asserted
that → work → conflict
In an interview with CBC News, he said that assessment still holds.
asserted
assessment → say → News
"The problem is there is no silver bullet solution to the impasse we are now at in the Persian Gulf and in front of Trump he has only bad and worse options."
asserted
he → be → options
Under U.S. President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, their countries broke with decades of restraint and shadow warfare and launched two distinct wars with Iran over the past 18 months.
asserted
countries → break → months
Iranian women look at a building, which was damaged in a U.S. and Israeli strike in March, in Tehran on Aug. 22.
asserted
which → look → Aug.
The first in June 2025 began with U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, lasted 12 days and ended with a fragile ceasefire.
asserted
first → begin → ceasefire
The conflict roared back to life in February of this year following a massive U.S. military buildup in the region.
asserted
conflict → roar → region
It began with Israel's strikes against Iran's senior leadership, including Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
asserted
It → begin → Khamenei
Worst round yet
Citrinowicz, who's with Israel's Institute for National Security Studies, said a third round of war could be the worst yet, based on what Iranian officials are telegraphing.
uncertain
officials → say → what
"They will attack the energy facilities in the Gulf.
asserted
They → attack → Gulf
But more than that, they will cause significant damage to civilian infrastructure, communications, as well as cutting off the internet lines going under [the] Hormuz Strait," he said.
asserted
he → cause → Strait
He said there is even a possibility that Iran could push some of its massive land army into the fight with limited assaults against Gulf countries that house U.S. bases, such as Kuwait and Bahrain.
uncertain
that → say → Kuwait
"We'll see a regional war with Iran investing a lot in attacking the U.S. presence in the region to cause maximum economical damage to the U.S. international economy.
asserted
Iran → see → economy
Smoke rises from a burning vessel, following what the U.S. Central Command said was a strike on an Iranian-affiliated dhow, at a location given as the Gulf of Oman, in this still image taken from a video released on Oct. 14.
asserted
Command → rise → Oct.
While both sides have largely avoided fresh strikes against each other's bases or territory since the summer truce collapsed, the conflict remains active.
asserted
conflict → avoid → bases
The U.S. imposed a naval blockade of Iranian ports and Iran has continued to target commercial shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, driving up global energy costs.
asserted
Iran → impose → costs
Posting on Truth Social Thursday, Trump blamed Iran for trying to artificially drive up oil prices ahead of the midterms on Nov. 3, elections that many pollsters believe will see Trump's Republicans lose control of the House of Representatives and possibly the Senate as well.
uncertain
Republicans → post → Representatives
"They are even making up fake hits, mines and everything else," said Trump, implying that Iran is exaggerating the extent of the damage it's causing.
asserted
it → make → damage
A report published this week by the Washington, D.C.,-based Critical Threats Project alongside the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) also suggested Iran is trying to use strikes on shipping to weaken Trump's position heading into the elections.
uncertain
Iran → publish → elections
"The increase in Iranian attacks on vessels is part of the ongoing Iranian campaign to pressure the United States to meet Iranian demands, including control over the Strait, by driving up global prices," the report said.
asserted
report → pressure → prices
People walk on the beach, with vessels in the Strait of Hormuz visible near the beach of Bandar Abbas, Iran, on Oct. 13.
asserted
vessels → walk → Oct.
Iran's demands
Iran's government wants relief from punishing sanctions, reparations for the damage caused by earlier U.S.-Israel strikes, the release of billions of dollars in frozen Iranian assets and the right to keep its supplies of enriched uranium.
asserted
government → want → uranium
Mediators with Pakistan and Qatar have spent weeks trying to push diplomatic solutions to get the two sides talking again, but to no avail.
asserted
sides → spend → avail
For both Netanyahu and Trump, the war with Iran remains unfinished business.
asserted
war → remain → Iran
Iran says 7 ships have been struck in Strait of Hormuz, Saudis intercept drones in airspace
Iran's president says country won't surrender after Trump threat to 'annihilate' Islamic republic
asserted
country → say → republic
The Islamic regime not only remains in power, but its leadership has also proven remarkably adept at adapting to both the military strikes and the economic blockade imposed by the West.
asserted
leadership → remain → West
"The war in some respects has probably persuaded Iran's leadership to double down on their commitment to the revolutionary ideology that has really forged this regime," said Suzanne Maloney, a vice-president and director of the foreign policy program at the Washington, D.C.,-based Brookings Institution.
asserted
Maloney → persuade → Institution
Like Citroniwicz, she said if war resumes, Trump won't be able to easily contain it.
asserted
Trump → say → it
"The retaliation as we've seen will come not just from Iran, but from its proxies and partners in the region," she said, referring to the Houthi militias in Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon.
asserted
she → see → Lebanon
Iran's goal won't just be to hit back at U.S. military targets but also soft economic targets, such as airports, that could undermine Gulf countries for years to come, she said.
uncertain
she → hit → years
Maloney and Karim Sadjadpour, a prominent Iran expert with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, were speaking on an online Carnegie panel about the future of the war in Iran.
asserted
Maloney → speak → Iran
"I genuinely don't think that President Trump has a clear idea in his head what he's trying to achieve," said Sadjadpour.
asserted
Sadjadpour → think → what
"I don't see any possibility of what Trump is looking for — which is like a knockout punch, a military strike — which will essentially force the Iranians into a compromise or capitulation.
asserted
which → see → compromise
Trump claimed his justification for the initial attacks on Iran was to ensure the country doesn't get a nuclear weapon.
asserted
country → claim → weapon
At the time, while Iran possessed enough enriched uranium to theoretically pursue a weapon, many independent experts and U.S. intelligence sources believed it was still likely months away from doing so — and perhaps more importantly, that the regime's supreme leader had not yet made the definitive political decision to cross the nuclear threshold.
asserted
leader → possess → threshold
Western NGOs claim the death toll in Iran is well over 7,000, including civilians and government figures who have been killed in the joint U.S.-Israeli strikes.
uncertain
who → claim → strikes
Lebanon has also suffered an especially heavy toll, with local media reporting more than 4,000 fatalities.
asserted
media → suffer → fatalities
…and 11 more, not listed.
The Aporia
